After a day off Thursday, the Toronto Blue Jays will begin a short three-game homestand Friday against the Minnesota Twins at Rogers Centre.

Toronto is coming off a 5-3 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday. The Blue Jays split the two-game interleague series with the Phillies to halt a streak of four consecutive series losses.

The Twins are the hottest team in baseball, posting wins in 15 of their last 17 games. They took three of four games from the Seattle Mariners earlier this week and are now just 1 1/2 games behind the Cleveland Guardians for top spot in the American League Central Division.

Let’s dive into the game odds for this matchup between the Twins and Blue Jays via bet365:

Twins vs. Blue Jays odds

Betting Minnesota Twins (22-15 SU, 19-18 ATS, 19-17-1 o/u)

The Twins were 7-13 at one point last month and now they’re 22-15 after recording five straight series victories. They absolutely shelled Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert, who had the AL’s lowest ERA at 1.69 among qualified starters entering play Thursday, for eight earned runs on nine hits in a lopsided 11-1 victory. Minnesota compiled 23 runs over three games (average of 7.66 per game) against a Seattle squad with deep pitching, so Toronto’s hurlers will need to be especially sharp against this lineup that’s beaming with confidence right now.

Perhaps even more impressive is that Minnesota is performing well without two of its stars – outfielder Byron Buxton and third baseman Royce Lewis. Buxton, who is seemingly always on the injured list, is out with a knee injury. Lewis suffered a severe right quad injury very early in the season and is still at least a couple of weeks away from returning to action.

Minnesota is allowing an average of 4.2 runs per game (12th in the majors), but its pitchers lead the league with a 10.31 K/9 mark.

Betting Toronto Blue Jays (17-20 SU, 17-20 ATS, 16-21 o/u)

A private team meeting after Tuesday’s 10-1 loss to the Phillies clearly motivated the Blue Jays to come out and play some inspired ball one day later. Seven of the nine hitters in the lineup posted at least one hit in Wednesday’s 5-3 win, a positive sign for a team that has struggled offensively all season long.

Toronto is averaging just 3.6 runs per game (27th in MLB) and is near the basement in nearly every offensive statistical category. The team’s pitching metrics also aren’t great, as it ranks 24th in ERA (4.64) and dead last in bullpen ERA (5.23). Closer Jordan Romano coughed up an earned run for the second straight appearance on Wednesday, but he has converted all five of his save chances despite owning a lofty 4.70 ERA across eight appearances. Yimi Garcia (back) and Chad Green (shoulder) are both on the shelf, which has hurt Toronto’s bullpen depth of late.

Probable starting pitchers

Minnesota: RHP Joe Ryan (1-2, 3.54 ERA, 10.18 K/9, 1.01 WHIP)

Ryan has been a model of consistency this season, surrendering three earned runs or less in each of his seven starts while averaging just over a strikeout per inning. He’s also demonstrated pinpoint control early this season, allowing no more than a single walk in every outing to this point. The righty throws his four-seam fastball, which averages around 93-94 mph, roughly 48% of the time. And although he doesn’t blow away hitters with a relatively average heater, he does rank in the 85th percentile in extension, according to Baseball Savant, which adds significant value to the pitch. Six players on the Blue Jays have career batting averages of at least .333 against him, although it’s a relatively small sample size in most cases.

Toronto: LHP Yusei Kikuchi (2-2, 2.72 ERA, 9.76 K/9, 1.16 WHIP)

Kikuchi bounced back from his worst start of the season against the Los Angeles Dodgers (6 IP, 9 H, 4 ER) with a solid outing against the Washington Nationals last week, throwing six innings of one-run ball while striking out seven batters. Kikuchi’s fastball averages 95.5 mph, but opposing hitters are batting a lofty .271 against the pitch this season. His curveball has been incredibly effective, notching him 12 strikeouts while holding hitters to a collective .208 batting average. 

Weather

Forecasts are calling temperatures around 13 C with a 40% chance of showers. That means the retractable dome at Rogers Centre will likely be closed.

MLB betting trends

• The Twins have played over the total in three straight games and four of their last five.
• The over is 4-1 in Toronto’s last five games.
• The Blue Jays have been favoured in 22 games this year and have won 13 of those contests (59.1%).

MLB player prop trends

• Kikuchi has recorded exactly 18 outs (six innings) in each of his last five starts. He’s -115 to record over 17.5 outs.
• Ryan hasn’t walked more than one batter in all seven of his starts this season. He’s -180 to record under 1.5 walks.
• Twins catcher Ryan Jeffers is riding an eight-game hitting streak into action. He’s a steep -240 to record a hit. He’s also recorded at least two total bases in each game during that streak and is +105 to go over 1.5 total bases.
• Blue Jays outfielder George Springer has stolen three bases in his last five games. He’s +375 to swipe a bag. 

Twins vs. Blue Jays predictions

• Twins shortstop Carlos Correa could be in for a big game. He has a .474 batting average and 1.208 OPS in 19 career at-bats against Kikuchi. Correa is slashing just .188/.235/.250 against left-handed pitching this year, but he apparently sees Kikuchi well. You can get him at +200 to record over 1.5 hits or +105 to record over 1.5 total bases.
• Twins moneyline: +100. Getting the surging Twins in this spot at even money is too good to pass up. They’ve absolutely destroyed left-handed pitching this year, slashing .287/.341/.453. Only the Arizona Diamondbacks have a higher team batting average than the Twins against southpaws this year.

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