A glimmer of hope is better than no glimmer at all. At least that’s how it feels when the housing market has a bit of good news.
Over the past week, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has fallen a quarter of a percent, according to data from CNET sister site Bankrate. The decrease was fueled by a lower 10-year Treasury yield, a weaker jobs report and signs that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hike policy could be coming to an end.
While mortgage rates are still near a more than two-decade high, the recent dip stirred up activity in what’s been an otherwise bleak housing market for buyers and sellers. Coming on the heels of the Fed’s Nov. 1 pause in interest rate hikes, home loan applications increased 2.5% from the previous week, according to a recent survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association.
In its press release, Joel Kan, the MBA’s deputy chief economist, says that even with a quick increase in new home loan applications, overall application volume is still more than 20% behind last year’s pace. “Homebuyers remain on the sidelines until more for-sale inventory becomes available,” Kan notes.
The low supply of homes continues to be a major issue, according to Diana Sutherlin, real estate agent at Compass. But, “as soon as rates ticked down, there was a flurry of activity,” Sutherlin said, pointing to bidding wars reminiscent of the pandemic home-buying boom. Since home prices aren’t expected to come down in the foreseeable future, buyers don’t want to miss out on any opportunities, she said.
Experts say mortgage rates won’t see any dramatic declines in the near future either, but rates could return to 6% in 2024. Here’s a look at what’s currently at play in today’s housing market.
What has the housing market looked like in 2023?
Soaring mortgage rates, limited inventory and high housing costs have led to a significant decline in affordability. Those factors have affected virtually every aspect of housing market activity.
Homebuyers are changing
While many first-time homebuyers are priced out of their ideal neighborhoods or preferred housing style, others are just excluded from the market entirely. In 2022, first-time homebuyers accounted for a mere 26% of all homebuyers, compared with 50% in 2010. There’s also a generational shift — today’s first-time homebuyers are likely to be older. Millennials are buying homes later in life due to a combination of obstacles: student loan debt, inflated home prices and buying competition from Wall Street investors.
While overall home-buying demand has been limited, there will always be some people buying homes. Right now they just need a strong incentive to do so, according to Matt Graham of Mortgage News Daily. Homebuyers are largely purchasing out of necessity rather than desire. Instead of settling on a new property for an aesthetic change, today’s buyers are spurred by big life changes, such as employment, income, education or family size, Graham noted.
Geography matters
The housing market looks different depending on where you’re located. Low inventory levels and high home prices nationwide are making it a seller’s market, but that’s not the case everywhere, said Matthew Walsh, housing economist with Moody’s Analytics.
“Prices remain below their year-ago level in some of the most overvalued parts of the country, like Austin, Texas, and Phoenix, Arizona,” Walsh said. Some metro areas that saw home prices rise the most during the pandemic were the first to experience price drops when home-buying demand slowed last year.
Though first-time homebuyers are dwindling, some regions have other buyers in the mix, such as move-up and move-down buyers, cash buyers and investors, according to Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at HousingWire. “I think we’re seeing a return to a more balanced housing market in some places, but it may take longer to see that return to normalcy in other areas,” he said.
Sellers are also struggling
Sellers may have the upper hand in today’s market, but they aren’t immune to today’s adverse housing market conditions, says Keith Gumbinger of HSH.com.
Homeowners who purchased prior to 2022 have much lower mortgage rates than today’s rates. As a result, many are reluctant to sell their house and buy a new one with a more expensive mortgage attached. This phenomenon is known as “golden handcuffs,” leaving many homeowners feeling stuck without recourse to sell or refinance. If they were to sell, they’d face the same low housing supply and inflated prices as everyone else, Gumbinger notes.
Lack of inventory is driving competition
When mortgage rates were at record lows during the pandemic, the housing market was incredibly competitive, with prospective buyers offering well over the asking price and waiving inspections to get their offer accepted.
Today’s high mortgage rates have stifled demand, but they haven’t eliminated it. “Lack of inventory continues to drive competition among buyers, as there continues to be greater demand than available supply,” said Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic.
With fewer homeowners willing to sell their homes, experts say existing inventory won’t improve dramatically anytime soon. Mortgage rates may need to fall closer to 6%, if not below that, before there’s significant progress.
A boom in new home construction would also help, especially if builders can offer financial incentives to make housing cheaper for cash-strapped buyers. “More construction of single-family homes for sale in all markets would provide some affordability relief,” Hepp said.
Prices haven’t come down
Typically, when demand for homes is low (like in recent months), home prices tend to slip. But that hasn’t happened across the board.
Despite the lack of sales and a rise in mortgage rates, home prices haven’t budged much, due to historically low for-sale inventory, according to Erik Engquist, senior managing editor of housing-news site The Real Deal. “Some sellers who can afford to wait are asking very high prices because they are under no pressure to sell. These listings tend to sit on the market for a while,” Engquist said.
But experts say price drops could be on their way. “The national housing market is at an inflection point. With rates averaging around 8% and demand declining, we expect to see sellers capitulate on list prices,” said Moody’s Walsh.
What’s affecting housing affordability right now?
An increase in home loan applications could be a positive signal for the housing market. But it’s difficult to say whether a few days of mortgage rate dips will turn into a full downward trend. For now, housing affordability still remains at its lowest point in 40 years due to the triple impact of elevated rates, high prices and limited supply. Home insurance prices were also up 21% from 2022 to 2023, according to the insurance marketplace Policygenius, further compounding the problem.
Even so, many homebuyers have come to terms with the new reality simply because they have to.
