Last year saw temperature records broken around the world. Here in Ireland, the weather was hotter, the rain fell harder and the effects of extreme weather events will be lasting.
Hotter, wetter and slightly sunnier: Armagh Observatory and Planetarium sums up last year’s weather in Ireland.
The observatory has been recording weather data since 1795 and yesterday (16 January) it reported that 2023 was officially Ireland’s hottest on record.
This will come as no surprise given the number of international organisations that have announced similar findings.
NASA analysts recorded global temperatures in 2023 of 1.2 degrees Celsius above the baseline period of 1951 to 1981.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) noted that global temperatures broke records in every month from June to December last year. It analysed six international datasets and found that annual average global temperatures approached 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (before 1850). The exact figure was 1.45 degrees Celsius of heating with a margin of error of 0.12 degrees Celsius.
The 1.5 degrees figure is significant because this is the temperature ceiling aimed for in the Paris Agreement, an international treaty which was signed by 195 countries and territories at COP21 in 2015.
The COP28 summit, held in Dubai last November, included the first global stocktake since Paris to assess how well countries are faring in maintaining this temperature ceiling through greenhouse gas emissions reductions.
The stocktake revealed that progress has been far too slow, with national commitments falling well short of emissions reductions targets. Globally, emissions need to be cut by about 43pc by 2030 compared to 2019 levels to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
In the final agreement at COP28, parties agreed to ramp up climate action, including a promise to “transition away” from fossil fuels and triple renewable energy output. Though significant that there was a mention of all fossil fuels in the document, the watered-down wording of ‘transition away’ rather than ‘phase out’ left many climate activists and smaller nations disappointed.
The Alliance of Small Island States said the agreement contained “a litany of loopholes” and “does not advance us beyond the status quo”.
A preview of the future
The latest reports on 2023’s record temperatures further underscore the need for more drastic action to reduce emissions and protect the planet.
“Humanity’s actions are scorching the earth,” said UN secretary-general António Guterres. “2023 was a mere preview of the catastrophic future that awaits if we don’t act now. We must respond to record-breaking temperature rises with path-breaking action.”
“After seeing the 2023 climate analysis, I have to pause and say that the findings are astounding,” said Dr Sarah Kapnick, chief scientist at the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
NOAA researchers found that 2023 was the hottest year “by far” in the 174 years that the organisation has been recording temperatures.
“A warming planet means we need to be prepared for the impacts of climate change that are happening here and now, like extreme weather events that become both more frequent and severe,” Kapnick said. “We will continue to see records broken and extreme events grow until emissions go to zero.”
A major concern for climatologists in 2024 is the El Niño weather pattern, which occurs every two to seven years and typically lasts about a year. Earth transitioned to this natural cycle of warming last year, but it is usually after it peaks that temperatures increase the most, which does not bode well for this year.
“While El Niño events are naturally occurring and come and go from one year to the next, longer-term climate change is escalating, and this is unequivocal[ly] because of human activities,” said WMO secretary-general Prof Celeste Saulo.
Ireland in line with global trends
“Ireland’s warming trend continued in 2023 in line with the global warming trend,” Met Éireann reported.
Met Éireann climatologist Paul Moore described 2023 as “an extraordinary climatological year with climate change driving a surge in extreme weather events and record high temperatures around the world”.
Met Éireann reported that Ireland’s highest temperature of the year was recorded at Oak Park, Co Carlow on Tuesday, 13 June with a reading of 28.8 degrees Celsius. According to Armagh, the annual mean temperature for the year was 11.1 degrees Celsius.
“In Ireland, we have set the second consecutive warmest year on record with the annual mean temperature for Ireland breaching 11 degrees Celsius for the first time,” Moore said. “We have also seen one of the wettest years on record in Ireland.”
Armagh Observatory recorded nearly 30pc more rainfall during 2023 than the 183-year average, making it the third wettest year on record. March was the wettest on record.
All sunshine records across the country were above the long-term average. Armagh recorded nearly 5pc more hours of strong sunshine than the average for the years 1881 to 2020. “Overall, the year was slightly sunnier than average, a duller than average spring not quite compensating for a sunnier than average summer and autumn,” the Armagh report noted.
According to Met Éireann, the record high sea surface temperatures around Ireland contributed to the hotter temperatures and increased moisture content over land. The sea surface temperatures were high from April onwards and in June there was a marine heatwave. There were a number of floods as a result.
A dangerous result of last year’s elevated temperatures was a major reduction in sea ice globally. NASA reported that September Arctic sea ice is now shrinking at a rate of 12.2pc per decade. While the Antarctic sea ice was well below any previous recorded levels last September.
NOAA warns that changes in sea ice disrupt normal ocean circulation. “Even a small increase in temperature can lead to greater warming over time, making the polar regions the most sensitive areas to climate change on Earth,” NOAA stated.
Research from the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Unit in Maynooth University, which was published at a time when Cork was hit by major flooding last October, showed strong evidence of human-induced climate change in Ireland.
Maynooth research lead Prof Conor Murphy said: “These results clearly tell us that adaptation to the impacts of the climate crisis needs to be given greater emphasis in national and local climate policy.”
Met Éireann’s latest projections indicate further warming in the future, and an increase in the likelihood of extreme weather events, including storm surges, increased rainfall intensity and coastal flooding.
NOAA predicts that there is a one-in-three chance that 2024 will be hotter than 2023 and a 99pc chance that it will rank among the top five warmest years on record.
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