Why is everyone talking about the Edmonton Oilers parting with their second best winger just now?

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Why is everyone talking about the Edmonton Oilers parting with their second best winger just now?

Top Edmonton insider Bob Stauffer of the Oilers has made clear in recent days that Edmonton is looking to increase the team’s forward depth by bringing in a winger and a centre, while not moving out any current forwards.

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Yet the talk persists, mainly fuelled by rumour distortion on social media, fans taking any insider talk of the Oilers moving out salary to bring in a new player, and assuming and suggesting the talk is in reference to Foegele.

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A non-credible report from The Fourth Period on March 2, which had no byline and no source, had the Oilers moving out Cody Ceci or Foegele to make way for an acquisition. “The Oilers are looking to add at both ends of the rink, as reports suggest they want to add at least one forward and one defenceman in the coming days. With very limited salary cap space, Oilers GM Ken Holland will almost certainly be forced to ship out a player and the likes of forward Warren Foegele and defencemen Cody Ceci and Brett Kulak are the likely candidates.”

Credible sources have reported that Edmonton offered Ceci and a first round pick to Calgary for Chris Tanev. But I can’t find any suggestions from top insiders that Foegele is likely on the move.

The most credible source that Foegele is on the block are the Daily Faceoff and TSN trade bait boards, where he’s listed by TSN as the 34th most likely player to get moved just now.

The Daily Faceoff is slightly more bullish on the notion, listing Foegele at 25th overall. It reports: “The Oilers have been gauging the market on what it will cost to dump a contract or two in a trade independent of whatever deadline deals they’re going to make. That includes Foegele, who started the season on the Trade Targets board and then played his way off of it as he climbed up the lineup. He’s tied his career high in goals (13) and already set a new career-high in points (31), so his contract isn’t out of whack at $2.75 million. He’s fine insurance to keep, but as a free agent the Oilers won’t be re-signing, he is the easiest piece to part with in order to make room for upgrades.”

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My take

1. It will be difficult for the Oilers to re-sign Foegele. He’s likely up for a major raise. If Edmonton keeps him at the deadline — and I fully expect that to happen — he is likely a rental for the team, helping them this year in the Stanley Cup playoffs but unlikely to be back next season.

2. If the Oilers did not have Warren Foegele right now they would be trying to trade for a winger just like Warren Foegele. There are 30 forwards listed by TSN and the Daily Faceoff on the trade targets list for the deadline. Just one of them, Pavel Buchnevich of St. Louis, has scored a higher rate of points per 60 in the last two seasons than Foegele. Foegele also kills penalties for the Oilers. He’s a big, fast winger who drives the puck forward. What’s not to like about his game right now?

3. Foegele has scored a higher rate of points per 60 5-on-5 in the past two seasons than Jake Guentzel of Pittsburgh. Players like Guentzel and Buchnevich regularly play on the power play and with top linemates. Foegele gets little power play time and has only rarely played with Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl until recently. When he’s been with Draisaitl, Foegele has done well. I’m not sure that either Guentzel or Buchnevich will give the Oilers more in the playoffs this year than Foegele will.

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4. If the Oilers are going to go more with McDavid and Draisaitl on the top line this year in the playoffs, is not the best idea to expend the most assets on a centre who can play either on the second or third line? Adam Henrique and Nic Dowd make far more sense as trade targets than a winger who is not as good as Foegele. If the Oilers were to acquire both Henrique AND Dowd, that would free up Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and even Ryan McLeod to play on the wing. I’ll be happy with either Henrique or Dowd, who both have scored at a good clip 5-on-5 over the past two seasons, but two of them would be a huge win for Holland at the deadline.

5. Outside of Zach Hyman, Foegele has been Edmonton’s best winger at even strength this year. He creates all kinds of Grade A chances and is solid on defence. All that said, I do see why he’s on the TSN and Daily Faceoff boards. In theory, he’s got more value to some other team if that team has the money to re-sign him for next season. If that team were to pay big for Foegele, Edmonton could then grab other assets at the deadline. Could it be that Henrique and Dowd together would be more valuable to the Oilers this year than Foegele. That is possible. But it’s the only scenario I’d see where the Oilers would move out Foegele. For example, a Foegele for Henrique trade, with Anaheim eatng salary, might make some sense for both teams, given Edmonton’s need at centre.

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P.S. Daniel Nugent-Bowman of The Athletic reports: “The Oilers plan to keep Sam Gagner with the NHL club if he clears waivers today. Gagner will be sent to AHL Bakersfield only to remain cap compliant after making pre-deadline additions. They’re looking at a slew of forwards and defencemen. They’re not in goalie market.”

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