The “One-Foot Hurdle” principle: Oilers can employ sane tactic to fill deadline day list put forward by top NHL insider

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The Edmonton Oilers have already missed out on big name deadline day trade acquisitions such as Elias Lindholm, Sean Monahan and Chris Tanev.

Perhaps that’s not such a tragedy.

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Last year at this time many folks were pushing hard for Edmonton to make a whopper of a deal, moving out the likes of Evan Bouchard for San Jose’s Erik Karlsson, or going all in to acquire Jakob Chyrchun of Arizona. Both Karlsson and Chychrun eventually got moved in trades but neither has taken their new team to the promised land this season, not even to a playoff spot. Bouchard, meanwhile, has taken his game to an all-star level in Edmonton.

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Let that be a cautionary tale about moving heaven and earth to bring in a big name player.

Instead of the highly-rated Karlsson, Oilers GM Ken Holland brought in a lesser known player, Mattias Ekholm from Nashville. Ekholm has been one of the NHL’s very best two-way d-men since he was acquired.

Think of the tactic as Edmonton following the “One-Foot Hurdle” principle, a rule of acquisition set forth by one of the world’s greatest investors Warren Buffet in 1989.

Said Buffet: “After 25 years of buying and supervising a great variety of businesses, (business partner) Charlie (Munger) and I have not learned how to solve difficult business problems. What we have learned is to avoid them. To the extent we have been successful, it is because we concentrated on identifying one-foot hurdles that we could step over rather than because we acquired any ability to clear seven-footers.”

Erik Karlsson was a seven-foot hurdle. Holland was wise enough not to try and exceed his leaping ability and instead went for a major asset but one far less sexy, one with a much smaller reputation and less heralded name. But Ekholm did not cost Bouchard, just two low first-round picks. That was the one-foot hurdle Holland could clear, and it allowed him to clear a second one, having some assets and cap space to trade for Nick Bjugstad.

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This trade deadline appears to present a series of one-foot hurdles for Holland to clear.

Edmonton’s top insider, Bob Stauffer of the Oilers radio network, who travels with and works for the team, has now made clear what Holland’s shopping list is, a top 6 right winger, a third or fourth line right shot centre, and a depth d-man, who will be seventh man on the depth chart.

“I see Edmonton adding a top nine forward, probably a second line guy who can play right wing, if not a 3C, a third line centre, and then I still think they’re going to add another centre, maybe another right shot,” Stauffer said today.

On defence, Stauffer said he was “pragmatic” and did not want to see Edmonton give up a first round draft pick unless they’re getting back a player with term. “I wonder whether or not it’s just going to be a depth d.”

He continued: “There is a way they can make those additions, maybe a top 6 right wing with an expiring contract, a fourth line right shot centre and a depth defenceman without moving anybody else out of the forward unit and that would give them a lot deeper forward unit and a depth defenceman that can come in as a seven.”

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My take

1. In the market this year Jake Guentzel of Pittsburgh represents the seven-foot hurdle. He’s the big name player, the Stanley Cup-winner, the winger who rides with Sidney Crosby and puts up a point per game. It’s starting to sound like Edmonton just doesn’t have the cap space and assets to bring in Guentzel. Maybe if Edmonton gave up top prospect Philip Broberg and 1st round pick, then traded even more for another team to eat cap space, Edmonton could afford the player. It’s enticing to think of such an acquisition, just like so many of us, including me, were tempted by the thought of Karlsson in an Oilers uniform.

2. But, as luck would have it, there are all kinds of other options to fill that Top 6 winger spot. They will all come with less of a price tag than Guentzel.

Guentzel makes most sense in a market where there’s the cap space to sign him up for next season and beyond. That market isn’t Edmonton. But maybe Edmonton could move out an asset or two and bring in a player with less of monster reputation just now, someone like Jordan Eberle of Seattle, Vlad Tarasenko of Ottawa, Tyler Toffoli of New Jersey or even Sonny Milano of Columbus.

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Sonny Milano? Well, in the last two seasons at even strength, Milano has averaged 2.09 points per 60. Guentzel is at 2.12 points per 60.

Pavel Buchnevich, another seven-foot hurdle, has averaged 2.24 per 60, Eberle 2.08, Tarasenko 2.1, Toffoli, 2.17, Adam Henrique, 1.89, Anthony Mantha, 1.87, Ryan Hartman, 1.94, and Jason Zucker 1.85.

By comparison Warren Foegele — who some local folks are actually mentioning as a player who might by moved out of Edmonton just now — is at 2.21 per 60. Why would the Oilers move out Foegele just now?

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is at 2.06 per 60, Evander Kane at 1.81 per 60 and Ryan McLeod, 1.75 per 60.

There are, in fact, a whole bunch of forwards likely available in that 1.8 to 2.3 points per 60 category over the past two seasons, and a number of them represent one-foot hurdles.

How about make that bet instead of going all-in on Guentzel or Buchnevich?

2. Remember, in rating and ranking these players, even strength scoring is critical because it’s highly unlikely any of the new players will break into Edmonton’s top power play. They’re going to have to get their cookies and apples at even strength. No feasting on the power play.

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3. Guentzel is on an expiring contract — which Stauffer mentioned is a key factor here — but Buchnevich has one more year on a deal that pays him $6.3 million per, making the price for him all the higher. Good luck clearing that hurdle.

4. Eberle, Mantha, Zucker, Tarasenko and Toffoli are all on expiring contracts. Ryan Hartman is also on one and makes just $1.7 million per. Milano makes just $1.9 million per.

5. As for filling in the third or fourth line centre role, Nic Dowd is a one-foot hurdle. He’s a real possibility, but if the Oilers want to make it even more simple they’ll go with Sam Carrick of the Ducks. He’d be super cheap and he makes the league minimum. Of course, most observers would say Dowd is a better play than Carrick, so there’s that.

6.  Adding a d-man is a good bet. When has Ken Holland not done so in Edmonton? In 2020 it was Mike Green from Detroit for a fourth round pick and the salary dump of Kyle Brodziak. In 2021, Dmitry Kulikov for a fourth round pick. In 2022, Brett Kulak from Montreal  (with 50 per cent retained) for a second round pick, a 7th rounder, and journeyman William Lagesson. Last year it was Ekholm.

All these deals were sane and reasoanble investments in Edmonton’s future.

We can all hope for more of the same from Holland in the next week.

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