Oilers flipped the script in latest 10-game segment

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Segment review #6, Games 51-60

Within the wall-to-wall coverage of the NHL trade deadline, we return, briefly, to regular programming.

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In our last segment review 3 weeks ago, we pointed out how it was a “tale of two segments” for the Edmonton Oilers, the fault line occurring at the 9-day schedule break that fell after Game 45. The Oilers, so good defensively for an extended period that encompassed virtually all of their epic 16-game winning streak, fell back into old habits of wide-open play. In the process, they actually created more offence for themselves, but at the severe cost of allowing much more for the opposition.

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With 10 further games having passed, the Oil exactly reversed the trend in Games 51-60.

• Games 41-45, 5-0-0, 18 GF, 5 GA
• Games 46-50, 2-3-0, 17 GF, 20 GA 
• Games 51-55: 2-2-1, 20 GF, 22 GA
• Games 56-60: 5-0-0, 17 GF, 7 GA

Once again, the offensive output remained fairly static, but the massive improvement at the defensive end returned the Oilers to their winning ways. Goals against per game:

• Games 41-50: 2-1-1-0-1 ||| 3-3-4-4-6
• Games 51-60: 3-3-6-4-6 ||| 2-2-1-1-1

Once again our video analysis here at the Cult of Hockey sheds some light on what changed. We rate the high end shots on goal as Grade A Shots (roughly 25% chance of scoring) which include a smaller subset of 5 Alarm Shots (roughly 33% converted; the Grade A shots which are not 5 alarm go in at about a 20% rate). We further break out such shots at even strength and special teams (mostly powerplay with the odd shorthanded chance mixed in).

Here’s an extension of the same table presented last time:

…confirming the about-face of the previous, troubling trend which continued through Game 55 before abruptly reversing. In the most recent set of 5, the Oilers created fewer Grade A and 5 alarm shots, not to mention goals, at the offensive end of the sheet, but eliminated a far greater number of same in their own end. The one common element? Edmonton enjoyed far greater success when playing a close-to-the-vest style.

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Season to date by segment

Games 1 – 10: 2-7-1, .250 | 27 GF, 41 GA | 334 SF, 302 SA | .945 PDO
Games 11-20: 5-5-0, .500 | 39 GF, 33 GA | 328 SF, 272 SA | .998 PDO
Games 21-30: 7-3-0, .700 | 37 GF, 29 GA | 371 SF, 271 SA | .993 PDO
Games 31-40: 10-0-0, 1.000 | 37 GF, 16 GA | 340 SF, 278 SA | 1.051 PDO
Games 41-50: 7-3-0, .700 | 35 GF, 25 GA | 310 SF, 284 SA | 1.025 PDO
Games 51-60: 7-2-1, .750 | 37 GF, 29 GA | 324 SF, 286 SA | 1.013 PDO

The Oilers remained an outshooting team, their 10-game outputs fairly close to their season-to-date average of 33.5 shots per game to 28.2 against. For the third straight segment they posted a PDO (shooting percentage plus save percentage) north of 1.000 after not hitting that median in any of the first three, and now sport a 1.003 on the season. The combination of more shots plus better percentages than their opponents is the pathway to success, as reflected in Edmonton’s 24-5-1 record over the last 30 games after a mediocre 14-15-1 in the first 30.

Goalies

Solid numbers from both netminders, who moderated to a 7-3 split in starts after 8-2 in the previous 2 segments. Expect more of that and maybe even a 6-4 share as Edmonton’s schedule compacts down the stretch.

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Calvin Pickard posted the better goals against average because he faced significantly fewer shots (23 per game) than did Stu Skinner (30).

Defence

Evan Bouchard continued his emergence as Edmonton’s #1 defenceman, leading the team in all categories save penalty minutes.

As always, take plus/minus figures with a pillar of salt, but these ones reflect the troubles endured by the recently-separated second pairing of Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci. Nurse ranked second in ice time behind only Bouchard and tied him in shots on net, but the offence didn’t come and the defensive results weren’t great either.

At 5v5 Nurse was on the ice for just 2 more goals against than was Bouchard, but the Oilers scored 10 fewer at the good end on Darnell’s watch. To a significant degree that reflects quality of teammates; that said, Bouchard and partner Mattias Ekholm continued to earn their frequent deployment with first-line forwards by posting outstanding results.

Forwards

Edmonton’s first line of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman — which has been broken up for tonight’s game at Columbus — has been producing at a spectacular rate, with Hyman’s 10 goals and McDavid’s 17 assists leading the entire NHL over this period.

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Again, the plus/minus column is informative, with 6 forwards in green figures, 6 in red, and the enigmatic Mattias Janmark smack dab in the middle. The good news is that those red figures are all in the -1 or -2 range, whereas that top line has been outscoring at a very high rate. The recent theory seems to have been “have the rest of the team saw off and let your difference-makers be difference-makers”.

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