Nelson: One and done no sure thing for Gondek

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Just because Jyoti Gondek is the most unpopular Calgary mayor in living memory doesn’t mean she’s political toast.

Maybe the reason Gondek shows so little desire to change course, despite such a lousy approval rating from citizens, is that continuing along the same path might yet bring her a second term.

That’s likely to ruin many Calgarians’ appetites but civic politics is a strange game. It’s one where big donations from special-interest groups, widespread vote-splitting, name recognition and low voter turnout are major components in determining who’ll win and who’ll instead decide to hike from Mexico to Canada. (Hey, Jeromy Farkas, in the long run, you gained way more than you lost.)

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We’ll return to Farkas in short order — he came second to Gondek in the last civic election — but let’s first regurgitate the latest poll numbers regarding the mayor’s standing among Calgarians.

According to the Leger tally, two-thirds of those polled believe the city is on the wrong path, while only two per cent felt strongly that we’re moving in the right direction.

So much for that chummy cabal of councillors calling itself progressive. Just look at the state of our roads, water system, transit safety, taxes and all-around citizen satisfaction to see why many Calgarians would say we’re regressing.

Therefore, it isn’t surprising that only one in 10 people reckon the mayor is doing a satisfactory job.

What augers even worse for Gondek’s future prospects is just 12 per cent of respondents said if the civic election was tomorrow she’d be their choice, while 56 per cent would pick another candidate — whomever that might turn out to be come voting day. Ouch.

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But such is the crapshoot of municipal elections that being disliked as a sitting mayor or councillor brings a strange silver lining. Such widespread unrest gets quite a few potential challengers excited about their chances. So they take the plunge, hoping to benefit from the disaffection.

This looks sure to happen come October next year, unless Gondek’s polling numbers do a Lazarus impersonation in rising from the dead.

Already, a main rival from the last election, Jeff Davison, has publicly declared an interest in running again, while the aforementioned Farkas could well be eyeing another shot for the top job following a few years of self-imposed soul-searching. Both would prove tough opposition but would also split that large protest vote.

Then what about Sonya Sharp from Ward 1? She’s been the most effective of all the newbie councillors and has recently taken some personal shots at Gondek, often a sign of an impending challenge for the opponent’s job.

And maybe Dan McLean of Ward 13 might think he’s got a chance. Certainly, his criticism of the mayor and her Praetorian Guard of like-voting council colleagues is ratcheting up these days.

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It isn’t outlandish to imagine all of them deciding they have a shot at replacing a sitting mayor who is on the ropes. Yet, three or four serious challengers helps, not hinders, the incumbent.

Also, Gondek received substantial financial backing from civic unions last time and she’s given little reason for them to find another champion. Plus, the big developers always dig deep for a sitting mayor’s campaign. A huge war chest goes a long way in civic election campaigns.

Then there are the 25,000 folk who either work for the city directly or are dependent on someone who does. They might wonder about their future prospects if Gondek were gone — probably the biggest inducement imaginable to cast a ballot.

Of course, party politics might come into play for this election but it’ll take some time for voters to move away from the individual candidate formula, especially when they know these likely challengers so well.

Gondek’s on the ropes but, sorry folks, she’s a long way from being one and gone.

Chris Nelson is a regular columnist

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