Let’s face it, it seems more and more likely by the day that the Blue Jays may not be competitive this year. Now over the season’s quarter mark, Toronto sits 10.5 games back in the loaded AL East with a 21-26 record, further accentuated by their -45 run differential that ranks 26th in the Major Leagues. As the losses continue to pile up, more and more pressure will be put on the front office to make sure that they are able to receive something in return for some of their players nearing free agency that could help the team rebuild. The team has a number of decisions to make, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at the front and center.

Guerrero has seen his numbers decline since his MVP runner-up 2021 season. Many have been waiting for him to regain that form, but it may be time to admit that he may never be that player again. The good news for Vlady this season has been his walk rate, with his 12.6% mark resembling his numbers from that 2021 season (12.3%). Of course, this is only one part of the equation when evaluating the Montreal-born first baseman’s season. His isolated power is way down, with his .106 mark well below his next lowest season (.162 in 2019). It’s safe to say that the righthanded hitter’s stock may be as low as it ever has been.

Factoring in all of the above, I think that all signs point to the Jays keeping Guerrero in town. If they can sign him to an in-season extension to buy out his arbitration years, all the better. Remember, the 6’2″ 240-pounder is still just 25 years old, with plenty of time to regain his early career stardom. It’s easy for Blue Jays fans to expect better and better production from him, but when a player debuts in the big leagues at 20 years old, there are bound to be some growing pains along the way. However, it would be a lot more satisfying for those growing pains to have come in his early years rather than in a declining fashion in these last few years. It’s worth noting that if that were the case, it would be exceedingly more difficult and costly for the Jays to lock him up long-term.

The opportunity to sign Guerrero while his stock is low is too tempting for the Jays to pass up, especially considering that the potential return in a trade might be underwhelming anyway. Having Vlady around during a rebuild might be perfect for him to get back on track, as some pressure would be lifted off his shoulders as the team shifts to a more youthful roster. By the time the team may be in a position to return to competitiveness, he would still be in his late 20s and early 30s. It may be a worthy gamble for the club to take on and may also be a reason for fans to continue showing up to the ballpark amidst a rebuild.

Final Verdict: KEEP AND EXTEND





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