Huzzah! Connor McDavid returns to Edmonton Oilers’ line-up

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Game Day 80: San Jose at Edmonton

Tonight the Edmonton Oilers take to the ice at Rogers Place for the final time this regular season when they host the San Jose Sharks.

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As per tradition, the home finale is Fan Appreciation Night, and tonight Oilers supporters will receive the best possible gift: the return of Connor McDavid.

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McDavid missed the last 3 games, all at home, and the Oilers struggled to a 1-1-1 record in his absence. This despite holding all 3 opponents to 2 (non-empty-net) goals or fewer in regulation time. But their offence flagged, mustering just 2 goals vs. Arizona Coyotes and 1 against Vancouver Canucks, producing a paltry 4.2% shooting percentage over the 2 games.

The bad news is that the man involved in the scoring play on all 3 of those goals, Evander Kane, missed the morning skate for as yet unspecified reasons.

The return of their leading light will surely provide a needed boost to the offence. That McDavid sits on 99 assists for the season will add a little historical drama to the proceedings.

Tonight’s projected line-up

Interesting deployment in the top 6, where Adam Henrique moves up to 1LW alongside McDavid and Zach Hyman. That allows Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to remain with Leon Draisaitl, with Warren Foegele on the other flank.

Both wingers have meshed well with Draisaitl in the past, although rarely together. Over the past 3 years, Draisaitl has spent over 600 minutes with each at 5v5, but under 60 minutes with both together. All combinations involving 2 of the 3 have produced positive goal shares in the 55% range, while as a trio they have delivered 75% (6 for, 2 against) in a more limited sample.

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The third and fourth lines remain unchanged from Saturday night, as do all 3 defence pairs. A little surprising to see Troy Stecher as the odd man out in what projects as a tune-up game for the post-season. Same goes for Calvin Pickard, who will cheerlead from the bench as Stu Skinner gets his second straight start.

The Oilers at home in 2023-24

One thing that “Tier One” Oil fans can appreciate on their night is the home-ice dominance that their club has developed this season, specifically since Kris Knoblauch took over the bench on November 12. On that date the Oilers were tied with Chicago for last in the NHL with a miserable .250 points percentage at home based on a 1-4-1 record. That lone win had actually come at Commonwealth Stadium in the Heritage Classic, leaving Edmonton a miserable 0-4-1, .100 in 5 games at Rogers Place.

Since then, an extended run of good results. Even with this past weekend’s 2 losses folded in, the Oilers have absolutely crushed it in the friendly confines during Knoblauch’s 5 months at the helm. Here is the top half +of the league over that span:

In addition to leading in raw points and points percentage, the Oilers have had the most home wins, fewest home losses, and fewest regulation losses over that span. They rank first in goals scored per game, third in goals against, and a resounding first in goal differential. And they dominate on special teams, ranking first in the NHL in conversion rates on both powerplay and penalty kill.

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Even with the crappy start to the season, Edmonton now ranks a solid second on the full campaign with a .725 points percentage on home ice. That compares pretty darn favourably to the previous 5 seasons where they finished 27th, 20th, 14th, 9th and 10th respectively.

It was not ever thus. During the Ken Holland era, the Oilers have consistently performed better on the road. From 2019-23 they had a better points percentage (.636) in road games than at home (.628), respectively ranking 12th and 3rd in the NHL. (Bear in mind that home teams have posted a .588 points percentage, visitors just .523 since 2019).

With Dave Tippett at the helm, the Oilers had the 18th best home record compared to 5th on the road. Under Jay Woodcroft’s leadership, a more balanced 7th and 8th respectively. Whereas during Knoblauch’s tenure, they are a resounding 1st at home, a more modest 9th on the road with a respectable but not overwhelming .625.  Overall, the club has posted a 45-16-5 mark under the new man, their .720 points percentage leading the league since the day he took over the bench.

The ideal, of course, is to excel in whatever venue the game is being played. But it’s clear that important progress has been made since the coaching change.

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