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Despite forecasting a bit of an economic slowdown for the Windsor area in 2024, the Conference Board of Canada still expects the city to top the 24 metro areas it analyzed for average growth of gross domestic product through 2028.
Windsor’s GDP is expected to grow by 1.4 per cent in 2024 and average 2.9 per cent growth between 2025 and 2028, according to the economic forecast on the local economy released Thursday by the Conference Board of Canada.
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“Windsor rates the highest (in GDP growth) of the 24 metropolitan areas covered in these reports,” said Conference Board of Canada economist David Ristovski.
“There was a slowdown in the second half of 2023 and that is expected to carry over into 2024.
“However, the slowdown will be short lived. We expect a bounce back in 2025 and for the next three years.
“With the opening of the NextStar Battery plant, the multiple, major construction projects underway and those projects coming in the pipeline, Windsor has enough going for it to withstand the headwinds this year.
“It’s quite a positive story.”
Ristovski said the Windsor GDP grew by 2.0 per cent in 2023, with most of that growth taking place in the first half of the year.
The unemployment rate crept up to 8.4 per cent last month and has averaged 7.6 per cent between January and April.
“What has happened with the labour market in Windsor is happening across the country,” Ristovski said. “Windsor has also historically had a higher unemployment rate than the rest of the country.
“With the opening of the battery plant next year and all the direct and indirect jobs it will create, we expect the unemployment rate to come down in 2025.”
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Ristovski said the job gains forecast in the manufacturing, warehousing and transportation sectors will offset the losses expected in finance, insurance, real estate and public administration.
“We expect with the battery plant opening, manufacturing will return to being the lead in driving growth of the regional economy,” Ristovski said.
He added the construction sector will also be another economic engine with the building of new supplier plants, major road works and another year of the Gordie Howe Bridge project.
The third pillar of the local economy has been consumer spending has remained resilient. Ristovski also credits the surge in population growth for adding more dollars to the economy.
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“Retail sales have held up in the area despite inflation, higher interest rates and the cost of living,” Ristovski said.
“Last year, retail sales growth was 2.4 per cent and it’s expected to be 2.4 in 2024. From 2025 to 2028, we expect retail sales to grow by a four per cent average compounded rate.”
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Ristovski said the Conference Board of Canada is expecting the Windsor area’s population to increase by 2.4 per cent in 2024.
“The fact that the growing population is feeding into growing consumer expenditures makes the rapid growth more positive,” Ristovski said.
Like the rest of Canada, housing is the biggest challenge facing the area. New housing starts were down in 2023 compared to 2022.
“We see a bit of a bounce back coming this year in housing starts,” Ristovski said. “We expect to see 1,340 new housing starts this year and starts to average 1,620 per year by 2028.”
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