Canucks Coffee: Explaining Vancouver’s playoff qualification math

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The math is complicated, but also simple, for how the Vancouver Canucks will clinch their first playoff spot in four years.

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It could happen as soon as Monday.

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Here’s how it works …

There are three teams besides the Canucks in the Canucks’ equation: the Flames, Golden Knights and the Blues.

As of this writing, the Canucks have 96 points. That’s the first thing to remember. (The Canucks have 12 games left, which matters for other things like the race for first vs. Edmonton, but not really for playoff qualification.)

• The Flames, who are currently fifth in the Pacific division, 25 points back of the Canucks, have 14 games left. They have 71 points. The highest point total they can reach is 99 points.

So in the Flames’ case, any combination of two more Canucks wins or two more Flames losses will mean that Calgary can no longer pass Vancouver in the standings.

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Notably, the two teams face off on Saturday. A Canucks win on Saturday would count twice: it would be both a win for Vancouver and a loss for Calgary. At that point the Flames could not afford another loss. Or if the Canucks were to win once more, that would end Calgary’s chances of passing Vancouver.

• Vegas is the next factor in this equation and what they do has a big effect on the St. Louis factor.

The Golden Knights are fourth in the division, have 81 points and 13 games left.

If they were to win all their games, they’d get to 107 points. So that means the Canucks could still fall to fourth in the division, though that’s extremely unlikely.

But that fact keeps the door open for St. Louis.

• When it comes to the Blues, here’s what to know.

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They’re fifth in the Central Division. But because of their point total, they could still theoretically get more points than the fourth-placed team in the Pacific Division and thus snatch away one of the two wild card sports in the Western Conference. (Remember, the fourth-placed teams in the Pacific and Central are wild card teams and will play one of the two divisions winners in the playoffs, their seedings based on the final conference standings.)

The Blues have 12 games left. They have 77 points. They could still get to 101 points.

That means any combination of three wins or three losses will end their chances of passing Vancouver.

An example:

The Blues face the Wild on Saturday. A loss there would drop their maximum points to 99. The Canucks play Calgary later on Saturday. A Canucks win there would get them to 98 points, meaning the two teams’ next game day, Monday, would carry huge stakes. In this scenario, a loss by St. Louis on Monday to Vegas, or a Canucks win on Monday over the Kings and the Canucks would clinch a playoff spot.

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Got it?

pjohnston@postmedia.com

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