A deeper look into the Calgary Flames’ Chris Tanev trade

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There is no question that Chris Tanev stands as one of Brad Treliving’s best value free-agent signings.

Despite suffering through consecutive years of downward trajectory before landing in Calgary, Tanev experienced a substantial bounce back in Flames colours and solidified himself as one of the most respected defensive defensemen in the league.

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No doubt this is why as many as 10 teams were reported to have interest in acquiring Tanev before his recent trade to the Dallas Stars.

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Given his reputation and the apparent demand for his services, the package Craig Conroy received for Tanev seems a little underwhelming — a 2024 second-round pick, a 2026 conditional third-round pick and prospect Artem Grushnikov.

The second rounder will likely land somewhere in the 50-60 range given the quality of the Stars team this season. The condition attached to the third rounder (that Dallas makes the Stanley Cup final), ensures a 20% chance at acquiring the pick, at best (meaning an 80% chance at getting nothing at all).

Grushnikov is a 20-year old out of Russia who spent two years playing in the OHL, managing a career-high 17 points in 65 games last season. A 6-foot-2 defence-first defender, scouts like his competitiveness, size, and mobility, which is no doubt why the Flames valued his addition to the trade package.

That said, defence-only skaters tend to have fairly limited ceilings in the NHL (be it at forward or on defence) with only a small percentage of them climbing up the depth chart and becoming true impact players. The vast majority are deployed in depth and support roles.

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Tanev himself was one of the exceptions to this rule and the organization would no doubt love to find another blueliner of his ilk down the road.

In addition to Grushnikov, the club has also recently drafted Yan Kuznetsov and Axel Hurtig, as well as acquiring Joni Jurmo in the Elias Lindholm deal. Each of these guys has a similar scouting profile — big, tough to play against, and very little offence to speak of.

This also is potentially an effort on Conroy’s part to balance out the Flames’ collection of two-way and offensce-oriented blueline prospects in Jeremie Poirier, Etienne Morin and the newly added Hunter Brzustewicz.

Nevertheless, the return the Flames garnered still rates a “just OK” at this point. The lack of a first rounder or one of the Stars’ better forward prospects means the long-term success of the deal will heavily pivot on Grushnikov’s development and ceiling in Calgary. Notably the last top-four, defence-first defender the franchise developed arguably was Robyn Regehr back in the early 2000s.

The perception of a relatively disappointing return is also anchored by the substantial haul the Calgary GM received for Lindholm only a short time ago, which included a first-round pick, a solid B+ grade prospect, a C grade prospect, a functional NHL roster player (one season removed from scoring 40 goals), and a conditional fourth-round pick.

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Tanev — well-liked as both an effective player and a respected leader — returned a lesser pick, a lesser prospect, and a lower probability conditional pick (the condition on the Vancouver pick is it turns into a third if the Canucks make the Western Conference final). And this is despite the Flames retaining salary in the Tanev deal.

On the other hand, this trade highlights just how much of an exceptional overpay the Lindholm haul was.

In contrast to Tanev, Lindholm is having a poor season (one of his worst seasons since he left Carolina), a slide that has continued in Vancouver. It also shows how singular and idiosyncratic each trade negotiation can be, making potential returns extremely difficult to predict.

Conroy still has Noah Hanifin to dangle as his final, major trade asset at the deadline (Jacob Markstorm notwithstanding). Hanifin’s relatively young age and a career-best turn this year should set him up to be the premier player available at the deadline.

Since he took over in the off-season, Calgary’s freshman GM has added seven draft picks (including Dallas’s conditional third), three new prospects (all defenders), and two roster players in Yegor Sharangovich and Andrei Kuzmenko.

If he can leverage Hanifin to add to his consortium of futures, it should set the team up to kick off the rebuild in earnest moving forward.

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