Why Trump’s Nato rhetoric is already making Europe less safe

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Good morning. Alexander Stubb has won the presidential election in Finland. The former prime minister defeated former foreign minister Pekka Haavisto in what many observers said was a referendum on who Finns saw as best placed to lead a more robust foreign and security policy for Nato’s newest member.

Today, I explain why Donald Trump’s latest remarks about Nato and Russia took European defence angst to a new level. And the EU’s research commissioner tells my Brussels colleagues that AI can help find solutions to one of Europe’s biggest China headaches.

Vulnerable

Donald Trump’s statement that he would “encourage” Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” to Nato allies who don’t spend enough for defence has made many European officials feel acutely unsafe.

Context: Trump is odds-on to be the frontrunner for the Republican nomination and polls above incumbent Joe Biden in many surveys ahead of the November presidential election.

Trump’s vexation at Nato allies who don’t spend 2 per cent of their gross domestic product on defence, the alliance’s benchmark, is well known. So too is his apparent admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

But to be so blunt to suggest that his White House would ignore Nato’s mutual defence clause and not offer assistance to an ally attacked by Moscow broke significant new ground.

European politicians reacted with furious indignation. Even Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary-general, renowned for his unflappable demeanour and fastidious evasion of national politics, was triggered. “Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security, including that of the US, and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk,” he said.

Stoltenberg’s remarks make the stakes clear.

The uncomfortable truth is that only 11 Nato states spent 2 per cent of GDP on defence last year. Thirteen EU countries did not, including Germany, France, Italy and Spain.

But the thinking last night was that Trump was not bullying those laggards but rather outlining the most radical element of his isolationist “America first” foreign policy vision.

Nato’s Article 5 principle, that all allies must come to the aid of one that is attacked, is not a legally-binding commitment. It is a promise to perform “such action as [a country] deems necessary” that seeks to deter any adversary for fear of provoking a united response.

What has spooked Nato diplomats is that Trump’s rhetoric (and, let’s not forget, we have almost nine more months to go until November 5) creates an environment where an enemy may feel confident enough to call the alliance’s bluff.

Such concerns are not academic. Denmark’s defence minister warned last week that Russia could attack a Nato country in as little as three years, echoing similar warnings from other allies.

Chart du jour: Big farming

Well-targeted protests by farmers have won the agricultural industry new exemptions in the EU’s sustainability policies. But have the concessions set a damaging precedent and undermined broader industrial reforms to reduce greenhouse gas emissions?

There’s an AI for that

Brussels wants to use artificial intelligence to speed up the discovery of advanced materials, such as graphene and alloys, and break China’s grip on supply chains, write Javier Espinoza and Andy Bounds.

Context: There is growing concern in the EU regarding its over-reliance on China for critical materials needed to make batteries and solar panels, and it is making efforts to diversify its supplies. 

Now the EU’s commissioner in charge of research and innovation, Iliana Ivanova, is looking at AI to help the bloc speed up the discovery of alternative novel materials as it seeks to boost access to talent and funding.

Speaking in an interview where she also said the UK must ease its visa procedures for scientists or miss out on the full benefits of the Horizon Europe research programme, Ivanova said: “Artificial intelligence certainly plays the greatest role here because it will . . . help tremendously reduce the time that we need with this experimentation phase where sometimes it takes from 15 to 20 years [for a product] to come to market.”

“It could reduce this time by [many] times more,” she added. The ideas will be fleshed out in a European Commission communication expected in the next few weeks.

Still, Ivanova spoke of her frustration with actions by the bloc often not matching ambitions when it comes to developing its own research.

She said she was “disappointed” that EU governments this month decided to cut €2.1bn from Horizon’s budget to fund other measures such as increased border security and green technology. “It contributes so much to our European competitiveness,” she said, noting the bloc had not met a target to invest 3 per cent of GDP in R&D.

What to watch today

1. Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk visits German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

2. Vladimir Putin visits Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

3. Informal meeting of EU development ministers.

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