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It was a coincidence that the New Zealand election fell on the same night as Australia’s ‘Voice’ referendum to recognise its indigenous population. But it is no accident that New Zealand’s Labour party and Australia’s Labor party, which called the referendum, are reeling at the scale of their defeats.
Chris Hipkins, who stepped in when Jacinda Ardern vacated the prime minister’s chair in January, led the party to lose half of its seats. Meanwhile the Australian referendum, proposed by a jubilant Anthony Albanese on the night of his 2022 election victory, also fell flat: he lost by a margin of 60.8 per cent to 39.2 per cent.
Both centre-left leaders now stand accused of making the same political miscalculation: in a moment of seeming strength, they lost touch with their core voters. “Both leaders were out of step with the blue collar people who have been putting Labour in government for 100 years,” said John Black, executive chair of political profiling group Australian Development Studies.
Black said that New Zealanders had clearly had enough of “progressive style government” initiatives at a time of a cost of living crisis and post-pandemic economic stress that rightwing parties had capitalised on in the run-up to the election. Hipkins ditched some of Ardern’s grander reform projects, saying they were “too much too fast” at a time of high inflation. But it simply handed the initiative to the opposition.
A similar trend occurred in Australia where the Liberal and National parties, which lost the 2022 election to Labor, were able to exploit “deeply felt” frustration with the referendum proposal in suburban and rural areas during the campaign. The referendum to recognise Australia’s indigenous population in the constitution and to establish an advisory body to parliament was widely backed after the 2022 election but support receded rapidly as its opponents argued that it was an ‘elitist’ proposal that would undermine Australia’s egalitarian nature.
Almost 80 per cent of Labor seats voted against the Voice despite the centre-left party appealing to its base to support the “once in a generation” proposal to improve the lives of the indigenous population. The highest levels of backing were in inner city, high income areas, including the ‘teal’ seats held by independent candidates, but not in the working class and migrant-heavy areas where Labor tends to find its strongest support.
Mark Kenny, a politics professor at the Australian National University, noted that the vote did not even carry in the seat held by Linda Burney, the minister for indigenous Australians. South Australia, a state that has long had a history of supporting progressive social movements and a key state for the ‘Yes’ campaign to win, also voted no. “Labor is completely adrift of its base,” Kenny said.
Recriminations over the referendum result have begun, with its supporters blaming online misinformation and hostility from traditional media for the disappointment. The scale of the defeat has nonetheless diminished the possibility of further contentious policies — such as a vote on Australia becoming a republic — taking place any time soon.
The contrast to June 2022 when Ardern travelled to Sydney to visit her friend and newly elected prime minister Albanese was stark. The duo took beaming selfies and swapped vinyl records before holding a joint press conference where the progressive New Zealand leader looked delighted at the new Australian premier’s commitments to climate policies and Pacific security.
That ebullient progressive tone has been shattered by this month’s votes. Albanese has returned to parliament chastened and tainted by a campaign that highlighted the plight of the indigenous population but also derailed the long journey towards reconciliation. Ardern has left politics for a fellowship at Harvard university, while Hipkins has vowed to stay on as his party’s leader despite presiding over Labour’s worst election result in almost a century.
Both leaders will now need to regroup and reflect on why the voters that initially backed them at the ballot box did not buy into the grander vision for social reform. Australia’s Labor party needs to find a way to unite a nation divided by the referendum campaign.
Other centre-left leaders, such as the UK opposition head Sir Keir Starmer, might be wise to take heed of the situation as they approach their own elections. Kenny said it was important to remember, in the moment of victory, that the success may be more about the other side being voted out, rather than you being voted in. “You need to build your own legitimacy. Don’t make bold declarations on election night,” he said.
