Why the EU parliament’s new liberal leader believes she can beat the far right

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Good morning. If you read one article today, make it this brilliant piece of reportage by Christopher Miller from the narrow gravel path that represents the last remaining border crossing between Russia and Ukraine — and for hundreds of people each day is a “gateway to freedom.”

Today, the freshly-elected new leader of the European parliament’s liberal Renew group tells our correspondent that she is convinced she can win more seats than the far right. And our central Europe correspondent reports on the rule of law fears stemming from Slovak premier Robert Fico’s determination to shutter his country’s anti-fraud prosecutor.

Have a great weekend.

Tall order

The new leader of the Liberals in the European parliament was elected yesterday by acclamation. Now Valérie Hayer must prove she can beat the polls in a tougher contest — pan-EU elections in June, writes Andy Bounds.

Context: Hayer replaces Stéphane Séjourné, plucked from Brussels to become French foreign minister. Her challenge is to fend off a populist wave and keep the Renew group as the chamber’s third-largest.

A poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations on Wednesday forecast that the far-right Identity and Democracy group (ID) would beat Renew into third place. 

It predicted ID would get 98 seats and Renew 86, although the ECFR later clarified it had misallocated some likely Polish MEPs that could give Renew around 90. The European Conservatives and Reformists, which includes Italy’s hard-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, are heading for 85.

Hayer said such forces “could play some malicious games” and it was vital that Renew held its third place, forming a pro-European majority with the centre-right and the Socialists.

“We need to continue to work here and to be a central force,” she said.

“I’m confident for the next elections. We have a strong will, and we will fight against extremism and populism in the next few months,” added Hayer, who, like Séjourné, is French — unsurprising, since that country provides 23 of Renew’s 101 MEPs.

Rightwingers are battling for the rural vote as farmers protest across the EU about rising costs and green policies.

Hayer, the daughter of dairy farmers from La Mayenne in north-western France, said she understood the concerns. “We have always listened to farmers. I don’t want to oppose environmental issues or agricultural issues. We need to find balanced positions.”

One thing was clear: Renew would not vote to cut funding for the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy, she said. In fact, farmers needed more support to reduce pesticide use and improve biodiversity. 

Hayer was a local councillor at 21, and at 37 becomes the youngest-ever liberal parliamentary leader as well as the first female one since Holocaust survivor Simone Veil.

Veil was president of the parliament until 1982, and had one of the buildings in Strasbourg named after her. No pressure then.

Chart du jour: ‘The disinflation process is at work’

Eurozone bonds rallied yesterday after ECB president Christine Lagarde said rapid wage growth was already showing signs of slowing, as investors judged her dovish comments to have opened the door to a potential rate cut in April.

Anti-anti-fraud

Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico seems prepared to spark a fresh EU feud over the rule of law by closing his country’s anti-fraud prosecutor’s office, despite protests at home and warnings from Brussels, writes Raphael Minder.

Context: Fico started his fourth mandate in October, at the helm of a three-party coalition that campaigned against both migration and maintaining support for Ukraine in its war against Russia’s invasion.

In early December, Fico announced he would close the prosecutor’s office, claiming that its head, prosecutor Daniel Lipšic, was spreading “evil” rather than helping erase corruption.

The European Commission has said it stands ready to launch an investigation, while Slovakia’s liberal opposition has accused Fico of undermining the judiciary. President Zuzana Čaputová called his plan “inadmissible”.

But Fico’s coalition lawmakers, who have a parliamentary majority, adopted a proposal yesterday to speed up the closure of the prosecutor’s office. A final vote could take place next week.

Several street protests have taken place to protest Fico’s plan, with 27,000 people gathering in Bratislava yesterday, according to organisers, plus more in other cities in Slovakia and elsewhere in Europe.

While still smaller, the demonstrations are reminiscent of those in 2018 that followed the murder of a journalist who was investigating political corruption, including within Fico’s Smer party. Those unprecedented demonstrations forced Fico to resign.

But six years later and emboldened by his spectacular election win last autumn, Fico seems ready to stand his ground, however loud the opposition gets.

What to watch today

1. EU justice ministers meet.

2. Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg hosts Montenegro’s Prime Minister Milojko Spajić in Brussels.

3. French President Emmanuel Macron visits India as a guest of the country’s National Day events.

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