Why Europe’s farmers are still on the warpath

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Good morning. A scoop to start: EU capitals are scrambling in an emergency move to find up to $1.5bn to fund a Czech-led initiative to provide Ukraine with artillery shells from third countries, even as others bicker over the future format of the bloc’s military support scheme.

Today, our agriculture correspondent warns that outraged farmers are back demanding more concessions from Brussels, and our man in the Balkans reports on the trouble in Bulgaria’s shaky coalition.

Have a great weekend.

They’re back

Brussels has set out plans to “simplify” bureaucracy for farmers in an attempt to defuse protests. The problem is that their demands are far from simple, writes Alice Hancock.

Context: Farmers have been demonstrating across the EU for more than a year now, blockading roads with tractors and throwing manure. Intense protests in recent months have elicited sops from politicians who hope to woo the sector ahead of EU elections in June.

The European Commission’s latest effort is a series of short-term measures, including changing the rules around environmental standards required in the bloc’s €60bn-a-year Common Agricultural Policy subsidy scheme.

It also suggested that it should be clearer that farmers should not face penalties for failing to meet the standards if there were “force majeure” circumstances, and that small farms of under 10 hectares could potentially be exempted altogether.

Mairead McGuinness, the EU’s financial commissioner (and former farming journalist who hosted the Irish TV show Celebrity Farm), said in a speech on Thursday: “There’s a myriad of issues and these differ from region to region.”

Farming groups, whose long list of demands range from an end to trade agreements that allow cheap food imports, retention of fuel subsidies and fewer environmental laws, met the proposals with a raised eyebrow.

“It needs to be translated immediately into measures favourable for farmers on the ground,” said Patrick Pagani, secretary-general of the farm lobby group Copa Cogeca. “It is a first step and more can and should be done.”

Peter Meedendorp, president of the young farmers group CEJA, said he was happy to see Brussels “opening the door” to more flexibility but said it was up to agricultural ministers, who will meet on Monday to discuss the commission’s suggestions and their own long list of ideas.

Farmers are certainly piling on the pressure. Thousands are expected to fill the streets of Brussels on Monday.

Via Campesina, one of the groups behind Monday’s protest, said they felt “no action has been taken to move away from policies that make farmers poorer by the day.”

Chart du jour: Boom market

The enormous surge in European defence spending as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has seen arms companies increase production — and sent their share prices surging.

Odd couple

Bulgaria’s grand coalition is scheduled to undergo a halftime switch of top jobs, with liberal premier Nikolay Denkov and centre-right foreign minister Mariya Gabriel swapping offices on March 6.

But in a country with a history of shortlived governments, the reality is more complex. The consequences could be jarring for the rest of Europe, writes Marton Dunai.

Context: Five elections in about two years were necessary to set up the current government, with an immense workload that includes readying the economy for the euro, supplying weapons for Ukraine and rooting out Russian moles. But strange bedfellows form the coalition, and bickering is constant.

Under their deal, the premiership changes every nine months, while other ministries are largely unaffected.

Denkov and his party, called We Continue the Change (PP), are ready to do the switch. But former EU commissioner Mariya Gabriel and her Gerb group want to take over the premiership and retain the foreign ministry. It’s akin to one bedfellow suddenly demanding two-thirds of the bed: the other screams.

“Bulgaria is at a critical point,” said Kiril Petkov, former prime minister and PP co-chair. “It’s not just the person of the prime minister, but also four years of political stability going forward. A lot is at stake right now for eastern-flank security.”

For all their differences, PP and Gerb are both bulwarks against Russian influence, which has festered in the Orthodox Slavic country since the fall of communism. If the transition fails and the government collapses, Bulgaria could again be exposed to Moscow.

“Issues still need to be decided, tied to eliminating further Russian influence,” Petkov added. “If this is successful, we will become a systemic member of the [western] security alliance . . . If not, interim governments and early elections may push us back towards the Russian sphere of influence. Putin knows this clearly so he will do everything he can to destabilise us.”

What to watch today

1. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen visits Poland and meets Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

2. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson meets Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orbán in Budapest.

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