Why Denmark’s PM thinks Europe’s left must be tougher on migration

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Good morning. News to start: French President Emmanuel Macron last night said sending western troops to fight in Ukraine “could not be ruled out” and that Paris would drop its longstanding opposition to purchasing emergency artillery supplies for Kyiv from outside the EU.

Today, Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen tells us that her tough migration stance is a pan-European vote-winner, while our trade correspondent previews this week’s World Trade Organization gathering.

Mette ideas

Europe’s Socialists are heading for losses in June’s European elections amid a rightwing surge. So what can they learn from Frederiksen, one of their few prime ministers?

Context: Polls suggest the Socialists could drop from 154 to 140 seats in the European parliament, but remain the second-largest force. Populist and far-right groups could add around 36 seats.

Denmark’s Frederiksen told Andy Bounds and Richard Milne that her hard line on crime and immigration was popular with traditional, poorer leftwing voters. “An unsafe society is always a bigger challenge for people without a lot of opportunities. If you have the money, you will always be able to defend yourself,” she said.

The rich could choose where to live and where to send their children to school, Frederiksen pointed out in an interview where she also said “naive” Europe must curb welfare spending and ramp up funding for defence.

Denmark’s tough migration policy — it closed its borders to refugees from Syria in 2015 — has attracted much criticism. But it is fast becoming a model for the EU.

Even neighbouring Germany is trying to cut numbers and considering outsourcing the processing of claims overseas, as Denmark has — unsuccessfully — tried.

EU governments agreed a new pact to toughen border security, and inked agreements with countries such as Tunisia, paying autocrats cash to curb migration.

Frederiksen’s hawkish comments come as the Socialists’ main rival, the centre-right European People’s party, also toughens its rhetoric on migration in a bid to appeal to voters who may be tempted to vote for far-right parties.

The Danish leader said Europe had to “be in control again”. “It’s smugglers who decide who will enter the European Union. And they don’t really care about the consequences for these poor people. And they don’t care if people actually have a need for protection,” she added.

Her Social Democrats are expected to hold their own with 22 per cent of the vote in Denmark in June, similar to what they gained in the last European elections in 2019.

Frederiksen is seen as a dark-horse candidate for president of the European Council. The Socialists’ second place gives them the pick, and favourite António Costa of Portugal had to resign as premier because of a corruption probe.

Is the 46-year-old interested? “I have never asked for an international job. I am happy about being a Danish prime minister,” is her diplomatic answer. 

She is however, effusive about her possible working partner, the European Commission president: “I think she has been strong and powerful, what she did during Covid-19 and now the war. I don’t have any negative things to say about Ursula von der Leyen.”

Chart du jour: One of us

Hungary’s parliament yesterday approved Sweden’s bid to become Nato’s 32nd member, redrawing the geopolitical map of northern Europe.

WTO is going on?

A big international meeting requiring unanimous agreement, and a couple of countries threatening to veto everything. No, this is not another EU summit but the World Trade Organization ministerial conference, writes Andy Bounds.

Context: Roughly every two years, trade ministers meet to try to improve the workings of the rules-based global trade system. Recently the task has been to prevent its collapse.

The ministerial conference — or MC13 — kicked off yesterday in Abu Dhabi and is a rerun of 2022’s MC12. First, countries must agree to extend an exemption from customs duties for digital goods — otherwise we will all pay extra for streaming, software updates and premium social media subscriptions.

Some governments, such as India and Indonesia, argue the exemption favours western countries who produce much of the content. They are threatening to block an extension, which requires unanimity.

India — the Hungary of the WTO — is also obstructing progress in talks to eliminate subsidies for fishing in areas where stocks are dangerously low, and, along with many others, cuts to agricultural subsidies.

Similarly to MC12, diplomats forecast that India is likely to give way on digital goods in return for concessions on other issues, and claim credit for clinching a successful outcome.

As John Clarke, a former European Commission trade negotiator, noted on X, “The big question at MC13 is what will countries pay India to continue the moratorium?”

What to watch today

1. European parliament votes on contentious Nature Restoration Law and EU budget review.

2. Prime ministers of the Visegrad group of Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia meet in Prague.

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