Why Brussels fears ‘survival mode’ elections in 2024

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Good morning. A scoop to start: Belgium suspected for years that a far-right politician was a Chinese intelligence asset but the country lacked the laws to prosecute him, its justice minister has admitted, days after we revealed his work as a spy. And, after much grinding of teeth (and spreadsheets), we have a deal on new debt and deficit rules.

Today, I hear the EU’s chief diplomat warn that a climate of fear could see a far-right surge into the European parliament next year. And the future of European elite football is being decided in court this morning, our competition correspondent explains.

This is the last Europe Express of 2023. Thank you for reading us over the past year, for your support and suggestions, and for your kind and constructive feedback. Laura and I will be back on January 8. Until then, have a relaxed, rejuvenating and very merry Christmas.

Happy New Fear

Brace yourself: 2024 will be the year of fear, the EU’s chief diplomat has warned, as a range of crises push an already rather febrile continent into parochialism — to the glee of the far right.

Context: EU citizens will elect a new European parliament in June. Rising migration and social divisions caused by the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are already boosting far-right parties. And five months later, the US will vote for its president, with Donald Trump leading in the polls.

“I think the European elections could be more dangerous than the American one,” said Josep Borrell, the EU’s high representative for foreign and security policy. “I’m afraid that Europeans will vote based on fear.”

Far-right populist Geert Wilders triumphed at last month’s Dutch election with a strongly anti-immigration message. The extremist Alternative for Germany is polling higher than all the parties in Germany’s ruling coalition. Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National is comfortably France’s most popular party according to recent polls.

Senior EU officials have also warned that far-right parties will use Europe’s financial support for Ukraine to attack mainstream ruling parties. That would mirror the rhetoric of Trump and some Republican politicians in the US, who have called for Washington to curb its support for Kyiv.

While centrist parties in Europe have said ongoing support for Ukraine is non-negotiable, many have sought to toughen their immigration rhetoric in a bid to convince voters not to desert them for extremist options — with mixed success.

“We will enter a survival mode based on fear . . . and that may influence the European vote and promote the ascent, or strengthening, of the extreme right,” said Borrell.

“I call on European citizens not to respond to fear with fear but keep clarity on what needs to be done,” Borrell added.

Chart du jour: Squeezing tighter

The UK and US are tightening rules around the shipping of Russian oil to make it harder for Moscow to circumvent the west’s oil price cap.

Let the games begin

Can Fifa and Uefa, football’s most influential governing bodies, retain their dominant position when it comes to organising lucrative competitions? Or will new rivals be allowed to come and play?

The European Court of Justice will deliver an answer today, writes Javier Espinoza.

Context: Fifa, the sport’s international governing body, runs the World Cup. Uefa conducts major European football tournaments, including the Champions League. Both remained unchallenged for years until 2021, when a group of 12 top football clubs tried to set up a new breakaway competition.

The European Super League was designed to be a direct competitor to Uefa’s Champions League, that would have pitted 20 of Europe’s elite clubs against each other.

But in a counteroffensive, Uefa said any player taking part in the new contest would be banned from participating in Fifa and Uefa tournaments. Fans and national governments also fought back against the plan, which unravelled in less than 48 hours. 

In the aftermath, backers of the ESL took legal action against Uefa and Fifa on the basis that the moves to kill their project broke EU competition law. Now the case is with Europe’s highest court. 

In theory, the ruling could reopen the door to a new rival competition, such as a revived ESL.

However, the ECJ’s advocate general a year ago argued that both Fifa and Uefa were not breaking the law and EU competition rules did not ban sporting bodies from “restricting competition where such restrictions are proportionate in achieving the legitimate objectives of the promotion of sport”.

Today we’ll find out whether the court will follow his advice. It’s judgment day for football.

What to watch today

1. Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez meets Catalonia’s President Pere Aragonès in Barcelona.

2. EU ambassadors gather for their last (scheduled) meeting of the year.

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