Why Blinken avoided meeting Lavrov at a fraught OSCE meeting

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Good morning. Today the FT reveals its 2023 list of the world’s most influential women, described by their brilliant peers. This year’s class is an outstanding mix of leaders and inspirers, including Ursula von der Leyen profiled by Janet Yellen, Olena Zelenska by Kaja Kallas and Beyoncé by Oprah Winfrey.

Today, our Warsaw correspondent previews the OSCE gathering overshadowed by a US-Russia face-off, and our climate correspondent reports on the EU’s last-minute deliberations on how much to contribute to a climate change compensation fund to be announced at COP28.

Ships in the night

Russia has put today’s meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in the spotlight — but not for the right reasons, writes Raphael Minder.

Context: Created in the midst of the cold war, the OSCE has been struggling to accommodate Russia while Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine goes on. The Kremlin has used its veto rights to scuttle the OSCE’s work in retaliation for western sanctions.

Russia’s long shadow will fall over today’s meeting of foreign ministers from the OSCE’s 57 member states in Skopje, North Macedonia.

Ukraine and the Baltics announced this week that they would boycott the gathering because Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, has been granted a travel visa to attend.

In a joint statement, the three Baltic nations said that Lavrov’s presence risks “legitimising aggressor Russia as a rightful member of our community of free nations, trivialising the atrocious crimes Russia has been committing, and putting up with Russia’s blatant violation and contempt of the OSCE fundamental principles and commitments”.

The US sent secretary of state Antony Blinken to Skopje yesterday ahead of the meeting. Washington presented this as an opportunity to preserve the OSCE, thank North Macedonia for hosting and welcome Malta who stepped in as next year’s chair, after Russia vetoed Estonia’s candidacy for the 2024 presidency.

But Blinken avoided a heavyweight wrestling match with Lavrov inside the Skopje sports stadium that is hosting the OSCE meeting.

He departed last night for Israel, just as Lavrov was arriving in North Macedonia, most likely to continue what Blinken called “relentless efforts to obstruct the OSCE’s work”.

Chart du jour: Hot waters

2023 was the hottest year ever recorded in seas across the globe. Scientists warn that we have “lost control” over the melting of parts of Antarctica. The (not so) bright side: by recognising this issue early, the world has more time to change to rising sea levels.

Penny jar

The EU is making calculations for what it can afford to contribute to a global fund to compensate for loss and damage related to climate change, writes Alice Hancock.

On the eve of the UN’s COP28 summit, which starts in Dubai today, the bloc’s climate chief Wopke Hoekstra told a small group of journalists that policymakers were advancing on “what is possible in terms of a figure”.

Context: Negotiations over the so-called loss and damage fund have been among the most fraught elements of the pre-COP negotiations, with developing nations pushing wealthier countries to pay up for years of pollution.

But diplomats are now hopeful that the structure of the fund will be announced in the early days of COP. Estimates for how much is needed to get it started hover around the €200mn mark, according to people involved in the talks, though much more will be needed in the long term.

“The information I have is both informal and confidential,” Hoekstra said when pressed for a number. “We are not fully there yet,” he added.

EU officials have been adamant that while the G7 countries and the EU should pay their fair share, other major emitters such as China and Saudi Arabia should also make early contributions. Several EU officials told the FT that it would not go amiss if the UAE also stepped up as this year’s host of COP.

Putting pressure on other countries will also help sell the EU’s contribution to domestic voters, with national budgets depleted by inflation and a series of crises. Negotiations over the bloc’s own budget remain stuck, too.

Hoekstra is one of ten EU commissioners travelling to Dubai for COP, and as climate envoy will direct the bloc’s negotiating team. He said that going into COP the “geopolitics is exceedingly difficult and positions of countries are far apart”.

But he added that with the wildfires and floods that have swept the bloc this summer, in the EU at least “there is a very clear consensus that we need to make sure we do our utmost to battle climate change”.

What to watch today

1. Two-day meeting of foreign ministers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe begins, in Skopje.

2. Meeting of the EU General Affairs Council, in cohesion format.

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