Von der Leyen’s backers push for a rubber stamp on her second term

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Good morning. More than half of the global population will be offered a vote this year, and the FT has created a special Democracy 2024 project, offering perspectives, analysis and film on the political challenges ahead. Read this introductory letter from editor Roula Khalaf.

Today, our parliament correspondent and I reveal the backroom planning for Ursula von der Leyen’s potential run for another five years as commission president, and Laura hears how Ukrainian refugees could cure the EU’s labour market shortages.

VDL 2.0?

Ursula von der Leyen’s supporters are eyeing her nomination for a second term as the head of the European Commission next month, as momentum behind her continued presidency grows, write Andy Bounds and I.

Context: Commission presidents serve for five years, and von der Leyen’s current term will end around November, when a new commission is sworn in. The role is traditionally taken by the nominee of the party that wins the most votes in the European parliament elections, which will be held in June.

In a speech in Davos yesterday, von der Leyen gave little away about her future but included a remark that “the next years will require us to think in the same way” as the past few years under her stewardship.

In the same breath, she cited “bold” moves such as climate legislation, support for Ukraine and joint responses to the pandemic — all are initiatives that she has taken personal credit for.

EU leaders from von der Leyen’s European People’s party (EPP) will gather on the sidelines of the February 1 summit in Brussels to discuss her candidacy for a second term, people briefed on the planning told the FT. 

According to one plan, her domestic party — Germany’s Christian Democrats — would then nominate her at an event in Berlin in mid-February, ahead of a formal nomination by the entire EPP family at its party congress in Bucharest on March 7, according to one of the people.

“We are united behind her,” they said.

There are some wrinkles to be ironed out, however. Some party bigwigs want her to distance herself from the green policies she pursued during her first term after a backlash in countries such as Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and Poland.

“The campaign will reflect the EPP,” the person said. “She is branded as the Green Deal president. We want to show both sides, to correct some things.” 

Several centre-right leaders had privately urged her to declare her intentions in recent weeks, another of the people said, as the party needed to draw up its manifesto and plan its campaign.

A spokesman for von der Leyen declined to comment.

Chart du jour: World in turmoil

Europe’s voters are now defined by their attitudes towards five critical issues, rather than by whether they lean towards the political left or right, argues a report by the European Council on Foreign Relations published today.

Want a job?

Getting more Ukrainians to work could be one solution to Europe’s persisting labour shortage, the head of the International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD) tells Laura Dubois.

Context: In the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU granted temporary protection to people fleeing the war, allowing some 4.3mn of them to work and receive benefits in the bloc without undergoing an asylum procedure.

“We all know how many Ukrainians we have. But if you have a look to the labour market of Ukrainians, it is a very different picture,” Michael Spindelegger told the FT ahead of the ICMPD’s publication today of expected migration trends this year.

There are big differences between member states, with 78 per cent of Ukrainian refugees in paid employment in Denmark, compared with 17 per cent in Belgium, according to calculations by Germany’s Friedrich Ebert Foundation.

“This wide range is something where I think we could do more,” Spindelegger said. He added that the gap is because of the different rules in member states. Austria, for instance, does not require Ukrainians to register with the labour office, and generous benefits elsewhere could mean employment is not strictly necessary, Spindelegger said.

At the same time, Europe is in dire need of working hands owing to demographic challenges. “If you have a look to Germany, to Austria, to the Netherlands, there is a need for workers because you don’t find enough people from your local labour markets to work for companies,” Spindelegger said.

He urged EU countries to get at least half of Ukrainian refugees into employment this year, and to increase that target to two-thirds next year. “This could be a very good solution because they are here on a legal ground and they can work if they would like,” Spindelegger said.

He said many Ukrainians could fill gaps especially in the health sector. “There is the greatest need.”

What to watch today

1. Ursula von der Leyen speaks at a European parliament debate on frozen EU funds for Hungary.

2. Third day of the World Economic Forum in Davos.

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