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Albemarle, the world’s largest lithium producer, has downgraded its 2030 demand forecast for the key battery ingredient by 10 per cent as it now sees the shift to electric cars in the US and Europe taking longer than previously thought.
Eric Norris, Albemarle’s president of lithium, said that demand forecasts were cut because of carmakers delaying the launch of electric vehicle models in western markets.
“Some models have been delayed, largely out of North America, which is pushing out the length of time of penetration [of EVs] in the US,” said Norris, adding that “potentially in parts of Europe” the shift would also take longer.
Tesla, Ford and General Motors have all delayed expanding their EV production capacity because of slower consumer adoption in the US including pushing back electrified versions of pick-up trucks, which would need big batteries that use lots of lithium.
Albemarle now expects 3.3mn tonnes of lithium carbon equivalent to be needed globally by 2030, down from its previous forecast of 3.7mn tonnes. The revised figure, treble that of last year’s 1mn tonnes, still presented a challenge for the industry, executives said.
Spot market lithium prices have sunk 82 per cent to about $13,500 a tonne since the start of 2023, leading much of the industry to become lossmaking, with Albemarle swinging to a net loss of $618mn in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared with a profit of $1.1bn a year earlier.
“We’ve seen prices fall to a level nobody can really explain,” said Norris. “Because of the unsustainable level of current prices, prices will go up.”
The downgrade by Albemarle highlights how the slowdown in EV sales is likely to have ripple effects through to the end of the decade.
Last May, the company had revised up its 2030 forecast by 15 per cent to 3.7mn tonnes of lithium on expectations that the US Inflation Reduction Act would drive quicker adoption of electric cars at a time when the market for EVs was running hot globally.
On a global level, the number of EVs sold is expected to total 48.8mn units, upgraded from 46.9mn, as consumers in China continue to turn to battery-run cars. Drivers there prefer cheaper cars with lower driving range and smaller batteries, requiring less lithium.
Albemarle chief executive Kent Masters expects Chinese car and battery makers such as BYD and CATL to power ahead in technological advances and ability to lower production costs.
“China is ahead on all of that. As we’re slower, China will take the opportunity to fill the gap and just get a bigger advantage.”
Analysts also said that the growing adoption of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, which also have smaller batteries, would also lower lithium demand.
