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Think of climate change, and the mind instantly tends to go to melting ice caps, arid plains, forest fires and sinking tropical islands. But the impact of rising temperatures will not only be felt in the hinterlands. A report, commissioned by London’s mayor, this week highlighted the possibility of “more intense and frequent heatwaves, more intense rainfall, flash flooding and sea level rise” in the British capital. It is a reminder that cities across the world — where over 80 per cent of global gross domestic product and the majority of the planet’s population live — are also under significant threat.
Major urban ports — including those on America’s eastern and western coastlines — risk becoming increasingly swamped in the coming decades. The 2050 Climate Change City Index, produced by Nestpick, a rentals platform, places a range of high and low-income cities at risk of rising sea-level damage. This includes Bangkok in top place, where the OECD has projected over 5mn of its inhabitants could be exposed to flooding by the 2070s. Amsterdam, Shenzhen and Dubai also rank in the top 10.
It is not only coastal cities that face challenges. Many riverside cities including Paris, Cairo and New Delhi are at risk of flooding too, while those farther from flowing water are under threat from drought, such as Phoenix, Brasília and Mexico City. The number of cities exposed to extreme heat is expected to almost triple by 2030. Extreme weather events are also expected to become more intense and frequent.
The human and economic costs could be enormous. In young and fast-growing African and Asian countries, urbanisation is set to continue unabated. This will put millions more impoverished city dwellers directly at risk of flooding, heat illnesses and famine. The urban heat island effect — where cities tend to be hotter than rural areas due to heat trapping and emissions from buildings — could also be exacerbated as populations and economic activity swells. Trading floors, skyscrapers and factories in urban centres risk becoming uninhabitable. According to C40, a network of city mayors, climate-related flooding and drought could cost the world’s major cities $194bn annually.
With the Paris Climate Agreement’s goal to limit global warming to 1.5C or to well below 2C potentially slipping out of reach, cities need to make a step-change in their adaptation and resilience efforts. Some are already acting. At the extreme end, the Indonesian government plans to abandon its capital, Jakarta, 40 per cent of which now lies below sea level, for a new capital city over 1,000km away. Others have begun by greening cities with parks and gardens, which help to cool urban space and reduce flood risk.
But too many cities are taking inadequate action. The report on London stated the capital was “underprepared” for the effects of climate change. Greening and retrofitting often aged infrastructure in dense urban spaces is complicated, disruptive and expensive. To navigate this, more cities must first create adaptation strategies. Planning rules may need reform and local areas will also need the powers and resources to adapt their cities. Investment in flood defences, land engineering solutions and green technology also needs to be ramped up. Regional and multilateral lenders can provide financial support for cities in developing countries.
There are political challenges too. Boosting cities’ resilience could be seen as shifting funds from needy regions to wealthier urbanites. Big populations in urban areas may also vote down necessary, but ugly, infrastructure adaptations. It is essential nonetheless that national and local governments find a way through the myriad difficulties. Otherwise their urban economic powerhouses will come under increasing strain, multiplying their problems in the process.
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