The political motives behind von der Leyen’s green agenda U-turn

Good morning. Today our parliament and climate correspondents explain the political motives behind Ursula von der Leyen’s decision to axe parts of her green agenda to placate farmers, while I hear from Nato about why it is holding its biggest military exercise since the cold war.

Greenlash

Ursula von der Leyen won her first term by embracing green policies. Her expected bid for a second one involves dumping them, write Andy Bounds and Alice Hancock.

Context: The president of the European Commission is poised to declare her candidacy just before nominations close on February 21. Yesterday she scrapped one of her first-term pledges, cutting pesticide use in half, to appeal to the populist right and protesting farmers.

The German is likely to be the only contender to be lead candidate of the centre-right European People’s party (EPP), officials say. It is likely to win the elections in June, putting her in pole position for another five years in the Berlaymont.

But she must get a majority of the 720 MEPs to approve her, and last time only succeeded by nine votes.

The three pro-European groups — the EPP, Socialists and Liberals — should muster about 400 seats, according to a Europe Elects poll of polls.

“That majority is too fragile,” said a senior parliament official.

In 2019 von der Leyen got votes from Polish nationalists Law and Justice, who sit in the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, and Italian populists Five Star. She is likely to need some of the ECR again or the Greens. “It’s a difficult balance to try to court both,” said the official.

Her ditching of key green policies in Strasbourg on Tuesday suggests she is tacking to the right. But some ECR MEPs say it is too late to win their support.

“She’s lowering her voice about policies she is responsible for. She destroyed our economy with the Green Deal. She’s not fit for purpose,” said Rob Roos, a Dutch member.

Her own EPP party and other EU leaders are also putting pressure on her to water down key climate pledges, a senior commission official said.

Voters across the bloc are turning right in protest at falling living standards, rising immigration and the costs of going green, such as for new boilers and electric cars.

Farmers protesting against the administrative burden, green measures and cheap imports have taken advantage to hit the streets and win concessions.

The Greens are in retreat, but ironically, some proposals stemmed from popular demand. More than 1mn citizens signed a petition backing cuts in the use of harmful pesticides. Another 1mn backed improvements to conditions for animals on farms.

That particular proposal was declawed to apply just to animal transport and is stuck in a legislative logjam.

Joe Moran, of the charity Four Paws, said: “Animal welfare policies remain very popular. But the commission has just said: ‘Sod you, we know best’.”

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Muscle memory

For the thousands of US troops heading across the Atlantic to take part in a simulated defence of Europe from an eastern menace, they don’t need too much imagination to know why.

Context: Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost two years ago prompted a rapid overhaul of Nato’s defensive posture in favour of major deployment of troops and equipment in eastern Europe as part of “active deterrence” against a potential attack from Moscow.

Operation Steadfast Defender, Nato’s largest war games since the cold war, kicked off late last month and will involve more than 90,000 troops, 1,100 vehicles, 50 ships and 80 aircraft in a full-scale test of whether the US-led military alliance can move enough men and equipment to and around Europe to stop an invasion.

“Every ship that sails, every aircraft that flies, every tank that rolls, every soldier on the ground, is sending a message towards deterrence,” said Gunnar Bruegner, assistant chief of staff at Nato’s Shape military headquarters.

Nato officials are straight-faced when asked if the exercise, which involves ships full of US soldiers crossing the Atlantic and large-scale weapons drills in eastern Europe, is a rehearsal for war with Russia.

“We are not preparing for a war against anyone. We are preparing against a setting that is close to reality,” said Bruegner, who calls it “stress testing”.

“There is this intense sense across the alliance that we need to train harder. Let’s put it that way,” he added.

Russia has said the exercise, which runs until late May, marks the “irrevocable return” of Nato’s cold war stance.

What to watch today

1. Romanian President Klaus Iohannis speaks in the European parliament.

2. Meeting of Nato national security advisers.

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