Sunak stuns Westminster with July 4 UK election date

Good morning. Rishi Sunak stunned Westminster yesterday by calling an election for July 4, giving his Conservatives just six weeks to campaign with the party trailing Labour by more than 20 points in the opinion polls.

Standing in a rain-lashed Downing Street, the prime minister set his sights on an unlikely fifth consecutive Tory election victory, declaring: “Now is the moment for Britain to choose its future.”

Why now? Senior party officials said Sunak and chancellor Jeremy Hunt had settled on a July date off the back of an improving economy and with April inflation at just 2.3 per cent. Sunak made the surprise announcement less than 12 hours after declaring that inflation had returned to “to normal”.

But there is little evidence so far that the recent good news on the economy is translating into a political boost for Sunak or his party. And while most of his ministers supported his decision, not everyone was happy, with a former minister calling the move “insane”.

Here are more updates and analysis on the snap election:

Finally, don’t miss Stephen Bush’s take on the shock announcement in today’s Inside Politics newsletter — sign up here. And here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:

• Economic data: S&P Global has flash purchasing managers’ indices for the Eurozone, UK, US, France, Germany and Italy, while the EU publishes its flash consumer confidence indicator for the month.

• G7 meeting: Finance ministers and top central bankers from the grouping gather in Stresa, Italy, where they are expected to discuss the use of frozen Russian assets and Chinese exports.

• UK politics: Cabinet secretary Simon Case gives evidence at the Covid inquiry, while Labour reveals details about the candidate replacing Jeremy Corbyn in North Islington.

• Companies: AJ Bell, Bloomsbury and Nationwide are among those reporting results, while Aviva, Hill & Smith and Rolls-Royce have trading updates. Indivior shareholders meet to vote on moving its primary listing to the US.

Five more top stories

1. Record sales of artificial intelligence chips sent Nvidia’s revenue soaring 262 per cent in the past quarter, beating lofty expectations. Chief executive Jensen Huang said its blockbuster growth was set to continue this year with the launch of its new Blackwell chips, adding that the company would continue to roll out more powerful chips at the same pace. Here’s more from the chipmaking giant’s results yesterday.

2. Exclusive: The EU is planning to stop Russia from importing western luxury cars via Belarus by tightening sanctions. While the bloc has already imposed several rounds of sanctions on the eastern European country for its support of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, the new curbs aim “to minimise the risk of circumvention”, according to a draft seen by the Financial Times.

• War in Ukraine: Russian police are offering suspects the chance to be cleared of charges ahead of trial if they agree to serve in the military, as the Kremlin seeks to meet manpower needs for the war.

• Related: The US has questioned claims by UK defence secretary Grant Shapps that China is providing “lethal aid” to Russia.

3. Exclusive: Ray Dalio’s family office bought two “shophouses” in Singapore for about $19mn in 2021, according to people with direct knowledge of the deal. The Bridgewater Associates founder’s Dalio Family Office announced it was moving into the Asian financial hub during the pandemic. Here’s why billionaires are snapping up the city-state’s heritage properties.

• More Singapore: The country’s new prime minister has promised a “thorough investigation” after a British man died and dozens were injured during extreme turbulence on a Singapore Airlines flight from London.

4. Some US Federal Reserve officials signalled they would be prepared to raise interest rates further if inflation became more aggressive, according to a record of their last meeting at the start of this month. The prospects of a rate rise have fallen since the vote, after fresh inflation data for the previous month came in cooler than expected. Here’s more from the minutes published yesterday.

• European inflation: German wages rose at the fastest pace for almost a decade, pointing to a pick-up in the wider Eurozone and casting doubt over how aggressively the European Central Bank will cut interest rates this year.

5. Shares in vaccine makers including Moderna and BioNTech rose sharply after new bird flu cases were reported in Australia and the US. Health authorities in the Australian state of Victoria reported the country’s first case of H5N1 infection in humans yesterday, while Michigan state confirmed the US’s third case, increasing fears of wider transmission.

The Big Read

Nearly two decades of scientific research has linked the consumption of ultra-processed foods to obesity, cancer and diabetes. Studies show that such products — from snack bars to breakfast cereals — encourage overeating but may leave the eater undernourished. This growing body of evidence presents a concrete threat to the food industry, for which UPFs are extremely profitable. Big Food has hit back with a ferocious campaign in a strategy one expert has called “deny, denounce and delay”.

We’re also reading . . . 

• Norway’s oil fund: Protesters demanding it divest from Israel are creating a dilemma for the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, writes Richard Milne.

• South Africa: Disenchanted young voters are turning away from the ruling African National Congress ahead of elections they see as a “pyramid scheme” benefiting only the elite.

• US-Kenya ties: President William Ruto will become the first African leader in 16 years to be received in Washington on a state visit today, but his attempt to woo the US has its limits, writes David Pilling.

• Builder.ai: Behind the wild ride of one of Britain’s hottest tech unicorns is the tumultuous career of its driving force, Sachin Dev Duggal.

Chart of the day

Spain attracted more than 85mn tourists last year, a record number that was nearly double its population as it competed to steal France’s title as the world’s top tourist destination. But the surge in visitors is provoking angry outbreaks of “tourism-phobia”.

Take a break from the news

Manchester, in the south of the north of England, has a contrariness to it, writes Jeanette Winterson. The city is both ancient and modern. The Romans were there, but it was also the foremost city of the Industrial Revolution and where Rutherford split the atom. The award-winning writer celebrates the spirit and energy of her “unquenchable” birthplace in a piece for HTSI.

Additional contributions from Benjamin Wilhelm and Jonathan Moules