Sunak clings to false hope

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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.

Good morning. When we launched this newsletter (only two prime ministers ago), Boris Johnson’s premiership was already in serious political difficulty. He was a little under a month away from a bruising set of local elections and only two months away from by-election defeat to Labour in Wakefield and to the Liberal Democrats in Tiverton and Honiton. But he had a shiny new policy — his scheme to send some of the people who come to the UK via small boat to Rwanda.

A large number of Conservative MPs thought that Johnson’s government was in serious trouble, but also thought that changing prime ministers risked making things worse. It took a triple whammy of unexpected events — Johnson’s handling of allegations of sexual harassment against his deputy chief whip and close ally Chris Pincher, plus the resignations of Sajid Javid and Rishi Sunak — to trigger the crisis that brought his leadership to a close.

Fast forward to now. Sunak’s premiership is in a similarish position to Johnson’s. Sunak is a little over a month from local elections that are expected to be bruising and though we don’t know for sure that there will be a by-election in Blackpool South, it is certainly very likely and you wouldn’t bet on anything other than a Conservative defeat.

A large number of Tory MPs again think that the prime minister can’t get them out of trouble, but also think that changing leaders will make things worse.

How much comfort you think Sunak should draw from these parallels is up to you. I think that they illuminate why, although the prime minister’s position is near-certain to come under some strain, he is highly likely to lead the Conservatives into the election.

Most Conservative MPs don’t find Sunak hard to defend personally; the same could not have been said about their stance towards Johnson by the end. The fact that Wallpapergate was followed by Partygate and then Pinchergate meant many MPs just felt there would be no end to that sort of thing as long as he remained as prime minister. And unlike Boris Johnson, Conservative MPs now have the benefit of hindsight.

But the parallel that I would find less comforting if I were Sunak is the fate of the Rwanda scheme. Some more thoughts on that below.

Home and Rwanda

Yesterday MPs rejected proposed changes to Sunak’s Rwanda bill made by the House of Lords, including an amendment that had sought to insert a clause requiring the legislation to be in “full compliance with domestic and international law”.

The political theory behind Sunak’s attempts to put aside some of the UK’s obligations under international law in order to remove asylum seekers to Rwanda is that if even one flight takes off, it will transform how the party’s records on immigration is seen.

This is particularly important because the Tory party’s first priority has to be getting the voters who either say they don’t know how they will vote, or who are planning to vote Reform, back into the Conservative tent, and these voters are much more preoccupied with immigration than voters as a whole.

The theory here really sits up and works: events can trigger sudden and major shifts in voting behaviour. Liz Truss’s “mini” Budget and the resulting market fallout shifted perceptions of the Conservative party’s economic record. The Scottish independence referendum acted as a “salience shock”, causing voters who had previously voted for the Scottish Labour party despite disagreeing with it on independence to abandon it. Entering into government changed perceptions of the Liberal Democrats.

So there’s a plausible theory here. But where it falls down, I think, is that the events that shake how a party is seen, whether for good or for ill, are big events. Although I have encountered any number of opinions about small boats when I travel the country talking to people, I am yet to meet anyone who thinks the Rwanda scheme is that important.

I think the Conservative party’s central problem on immigration is they have made so many promises that, essentially, when I meet liberal voters they think the government is authoritarian, when I meet authoritarian voters they think the government is liberal. Both groups are united in believing the government is focused on irrelevant niche policies, of which the Rwanda policy I think is destined to remain even if there is a flight this side of the election.

Now try this

I mostly listened to “Houdini” and “Training Season”, the two songs released thus far from Dua Lipa’s forthcoming new record, Radical Optimism, while writing my column this week. (I much preferred “Houdini”.)

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