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Rishi Sunak has urged Conservative MPs to unite or face electoral doom, in an end-of-term speech in which he argued that an improving economy would come to the party’s rescue.
The prime minister pointed to inflation falling to 3.4 per cent as evidence of a “new economic moment” for the country, and promised to carry on cutting national insurance in the next parliament.
After two weeks of party divisions and speculation about his leadership, Sunak was greeted by his MPs with a traditional show of support — a sustained banging of desks that lasted a minute.
“He said right at the start: ‘United we stand, divided we fall’,” said one MP at the meeting of the backbench Tory 1922 committee. A number of those there joined Sunak in calling for an end to the party infighting.
“We are in the fight of our lives,” Sunak told MPs. “This battle will define us. When the going got tough, when the polls were against us, did we dig deep and fight or did we turn in on ourselves?”
However some Tory MPs believe Sunak will be in trouble if the party is hammered in local elections on May 2. One Tory critic of Sunak said: “The more people thump their desks, the more trouble the prime minister is in.”
Former Tory premier Theresa May was greeted by similar shows of support at a 1922 meeting shortly before her defenestration in 2017. May laughed as she left Wednesday’s meeting when asked if she missed such gatherings.
Sir Jake Berry, a former Tory chair, was one dissenting voice, saying that Number 10 had briefed that he was plotting against Sunak — a claim Berry categorically denied. Sunak said he would look into it.
Sunak urged his MPs to focus over the next few weeks on what he said was Labour’s poor record in office in places such as Wales, London and Birmingham, and to promote the Tories’ own record in office.
The prime minister pointed to falling inflation as evidence that his economic plan was working on Wednesday as he attempted to launch his fightback ahead of the Easter House of Commons recess, which starts on Tuesday.
Sunak told the BBC that if he won the next general election he would “make progress” towards his goal of scrapping employee national insurance contributions. He has cut the rate from 12p to 8p since last November.
His comment that he wanted to cut NICs “in the next parliament” suggests that if the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, has a tax-cutting Autumn Statement before the election, he might instead focus on headline-grabbing income tax cuts.
Earlier at prime minister’s questions, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer challenged Sunak to call a general election, adding: “We are ready.”
Official data on Wednesday morning showed UK inflation has fallen to its lowest level in more than two years, with consumer prices rising at an annual rate of 3.4 per cent in February.
Sunak’s aides admitted that falling energy and food prices were driving the drop in inflation, but claimed that the government had contributed by holding down public spending and making supply-side reforms.
The fall from 4 per cent in January has encouraged Number 10 to believe that inflation could dip below the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target before a general election, expected in the autumn.
A fall in inflation — and the possibility of pre-election cuts to the BoE’s benchmark rate, which stands at 5.25 per cent — are an essential part of Sunak’s strategy, as he attempts to make inroads into Labour’s 20-point opinion poll lead.
“If we’re to stand any chance, we have to plant the idea in voters’ minds that the economy is on the right track and that there might be a risk if they switched to Labour,” said one Tory strategist.
Labour officials admit privately that the economy is turning but believe it is happening too late to help Sunak, especially as many families are still coming off fixed-rate mortgages on to more expensive deals.
To counteract the Tories’ emphasis on sound economic management, shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves underlined her commitment to “stability” in her Mais lecture in the City of London on Tuesday.
Lord Nick Macpherson, former Treasury permanent secretary, has said that contrary to expectations at Westminster, the economy will be recovering by the autumn and that “it could be quite a good election to win”.
Earlier Sir Ed Davey, Liberal Democrat leader, launched his party’s campaign for the May 2 local elections in England and Wales, with a focus on toppling Conservatives in southern “blue wall” seats.
“When I speak to life-long Conservative voters, they tell me that the party no longer speaks for them,” he said.
Some Tory MPs believe that Sunak could face renewed criticism about his leadership if the party fares badly in the council elections, but the majority of parliamentarians think seeking to replace him would be disastrously counter-productive.
Jonathan Gullis, MP for Stoke-on-Trent North, told the 1922 meeting that critics of the prime minister should “grow up”. Sir Edward Leigh, a veteran MP, reminded younger colleagues that “your best day in opposition is worse than your worst day in government”.
