By Giulia Petroni
Global oil-demand growth slowed significantly at the end of last year and is expected to weaken further, marking a return to prepandemic trends, according to the International Energy Agency.
The Paris-based organization said Thursday in its monthly report that growth is projected to ease to 1.2 million barrels a day in 2024 from 2.3 million barrels a day last year, taking total demand to an average of 103 million barrels a day. Demand growth for 2024 was previously estimated at 1.1 million barrels a day.
In the fourth quarter of last year, growth slowed to 1.7 million barrels a day from 2.8 million barrels a day in the third quarter, reflecting slowing travel demand in China after a post-pandemic boom, the IEA said.
China is still set to account for almost 60% of global demand growth this year, boosted by the expansion of the petrochemical sector, the agency said.
“The gains come predominantly at the expense of gasoline and jet/kerosene, as 2023’s post-pandemic release of pent-up Asian travel demand recedes, efficiency standards continue to tighten and electric vehicle sales rise,” it said.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Wednesday left its expectations for this year’s global oil-demand growth unchanged at 2.2 million barrels a day, and said it expects demand to grow by 1.8 million barrels a day in 2025, a level still considered elevated by market watchers.
Meanwhile, global economic growth is expected to slow this year, despite anticipated interest-rate cuts from central banks, the IEA said, as business activity and consumer spending suffers the impact of rate hikes in 2022 and 2023.
“Even if the now-mainstream view of a soft landing materializes, 2024 looks set to be a year of subdued global economic growth, weighed down by the lagged impact of monetary tightening and a squeeze in bank lending,” it said.
Record supply from the U.S., Brazil and Guyana, along with production increases from countries outside of OPEC+, are estimated to lift world oil supply by 1.5 million barrels a day to an average of 103.5 million barrels a day in 2024, according to the organization.
Russian crude exports rose by 500,000 barrels a day in December to a nine-month high of 7.8 million barrels a day, but export revenue slumped to $14.4 billion as Russian oil price discounts increased and benchmark oil prices fell.
The IEA’s latest report came amid a sharp downturn in oil prices, with crude down over 20% from its late-September high despite the Israel-Hamas conflict and production cuts from OPEC. Brent crude, the international benchmark, trades at around $78 a barrel after briefly touching $80 last week. WTI, the U.S. oil gauge, is around $73 a barrel.
Oil futures have recovered by around $4 a barrel from their mid-December lows, the IEA said, as escalating tensions in the Red Sea due to a string of attacks on commercial ships by Yemen’s Houthi rebels fueled fears of supply disruptions.
“Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which accounts for one-third of the world’s seaborne oil trade, has markets on edge at the start of 2024,” the agency said.
Production of oil and liquefied natural gas hasn’t been directly hurt by the attacks, but the risk of disruptions is still high, particularly for oil flows transiting via the Suez canal, according to the IEA. Meanwhile, rerouting vessels toward Southern Africa’s Cape of Good Hope–the main alternative shipping lane–adds pressure to global supply chains and increases freight and insurance costs.
But excluding significant disruptions to flows, the IEA said the market looks well supplied this year, as higher-than-expected production from countries outside of OPEC+ is set to outpace oil-demand growth.
“While OPEC+ supply management policies may tip the oil market into a small deficit at the start of the year, strong growth from non-OPEC+ producers could lead to a substantial surplus if the OPEC+ group’s extra voluntary cuts are unwound in 2Q24,” the agency said.
Write to Giulia Petroni at giulia.petroni@wsj.com
