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Making Northern Ireland work may seem the last thing anyone committed to Irish reunification would ever seek.
But that is exactly the pledge from Sinn Féin since it took the helm last week as the first nationalist party to lead the executive in the UK region’s 103-year-old history — a feat that its leader, Mary Lou McDonald, said put reunification “within touching distance”.
New first minister Michelle O’Neill, a “proud republican” who wants a referendum on ending partition within a decade, insists her priority is ensuring that Northern Ireland prospers.
The aim is part of an intensifying contest between nationalists and unionists over whether the region is better off as part of the UK, which is currently struggling economically, or with EU member Ireland, which is enjoying a corporate tax bonanza.
“For anybody who is pro-union, you want to ensure that Northern Ireland works,” said Philip Smith, co-founder of Uniting UK, a lobby group. “Sinn Féin, ironically, may have to make Northern Ireland work as well if they want to achieve their goals.”
Being seen to deliver on bread-and-butter issues like slashing hospital waiting lists, resolving funding crises in education and boosting childcare is an essential test of maturity for Sinn Féin.
It is bidding to lead the next government in the Republic of Ireland in elections widely expected later this year and sees being in power on both sides of the border as the next milestone on the road to reunification.
“In a way, the north acts as a laboratory,” said Esmond Birnie, a senior economist at Ulster University and former Ulster Unionist party legislator. Sinn Féin is by far Ireland’s most popular party, but polls show its support has been slipping recently south of the border.
Unionists, who for decades did not need to sell the benefits of a union that was created for them in 1921, also have an imperative to see Northern Ireland — which is now less “British” and less unionist than ever before — thrive.
The region’s long dominant Democratic Unionist party was deposed politically when Sinn Féin won regional elections in 2022. Unionists are also in decline culturally as a rising number of voters and young people resist traditional community labels.
In 2022 the vote split roughly 40 per cent nationalist, 40 per cent unionist and 20 per cent “other”. Surveys suggest a clear majority wants no change in the region’s constitutional status despite a demographic shift in which Catholics now outnumber Protestants by 45.7 per cent to 43.5 per cent, according to the 2021 census.
Protestants are also largely older than Catholics and people identifying as British fell 12 per cent since the 2011 census to 42.8 per cent, while those identifying as Irish rose 17 per cent to 33.3 per cent.
Not all Catholics favour reunification but Brendan O’Leary, a professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania, who conducts regular surveys on the issue, said there is a 20-point gap between those backing the union and those supporting reunification, with many of the undecided coming from a Catholic background.
“Demography is all in the cultural Catholics’ direction. For unionists it is absolutely vital that the power-sharing institutions be seen to work and to deliver,” said O’Leary, author of a book examining scenarios for a united Ireland.
“That way, they will be able to argue that the union is beneficial and keep the doubting Catholics in the ‘don’t know’ camp,” he added.
But attitudes are changing fast, particularly since Brexit, noted Sarah Creighton, a unionist commentator.
“The middle ground is getting very antsy and people who were previously very comfortable with unionism are not any more,” she said. “I think this is the best opportunity nationalists have ever had and I certainly think they are utilising this moment more effectively than unionists.”
O’Neill’s role is a joint post, shared with the DUP’s Emma Little-Pengelly as deputy first minister. But Sinn Féin swiftly seized the chance to run the economic ministry in the new executive, betting any future positive investment and jobs news will increase its support.
O’Neill has said she will be a “first minister for all” but some unionists are sceptical. “Republicans will promote those things that align with their goal — Irish unity — while seeking to deny things that would strengthen Northern Ireland’s place within the United Kingdom,” said Mervyn Gibson, grand secretary of the Orange Order.
Stormont’s return came after the DUP, which had been boycotting the institutions for two years, struck a bespoke deal with the British government to allay its fears that the region’s place in the UK was being watered down.
London insisted Northern Ireland’s place in the union “will be safe for decades to come” and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak chided Sinn Féin for talking about reunification.
But the genie is firmly out of the bottle and “the direction of travel is very clear”, said Gerry Carlile, head of Ireland’s Future, a pro-unity group.
Brexit gave Northern Ireland a potential boost: unique privileged trade access to both the EU and the UK. Unionists believe that reaping those benefits could neuter calls for reunification, but Carlile said it just “makes the north more attractive to people in the south”.
Unionists know they have work to do, particularly among younger voters.
“Unionism is seen as this kind of old thing,” Creighton said, “like it’s deeply uncool to be a unionist.”
