For all his dominance of Indian politics over the past decade, there is one part of India that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has so far been unable to crack: the country’s prosperous south. In elections beginning next week, he senses his best chance yet.
Southern states such as Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Telangana are among India’s most economically successful and ethnically diverse, home to strong regional leaders that have long resisted Modi’s northern, Hindi-speaking Bharatiya Janata party.
But the BJP is now doubling down on the south — sending campaigners, including Modi — as it seeks to tap frustration with the venality of local political dynasties and tries to capitalise on his image as a strong leader in what analysts say amounts to its best chance for gains.
Modi this week toured Tamil Nadu’s capital Chennai and cities such as Vellore on an open-topped bus to drum up support for the party, declaring that Tamil Nadu was “set to support the [BJP and its allies] in a big way”.
Analysts say winning seats in the south is the only way the party can meet Modi’s target of winning the two-thirds majority that the BJP wants to cement its grip on power. Voting begins on April 19 and runs in phases until votes are tallied on June 4.
“This has always been an Achilles heel for the BJP and its ability to acquire total dominance and . . . wipe out the opposition at the national scale,” Yamini Aiyar, a public policy scholar, said. Its ambition for a historic majority “can only be fulfilled if they’re able to break through in southern India”.
Tamil Nadu, home to 70mn people, has been a bastion of anti-BJP sentiment. The state did not elect a single BJP MP in 2019, when the party secured less than 4 per cent of the vote, and the leading Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam party is part of the national opposition INDIA alliance.
An opinion poll by TV channel News18 last month predicted the BJP would win five of 39 seats in Tamil Nadu — a historic haul that, combined with gains in other southern states, would be enough to propel it to its desired supermajority. Some political scientists question the reliability of opinion polls, however.
“Since childhood my family and I had voted for the DMK,” Indira Ravichandran, a 57-year-old cook in Chennai, said. “This time I will vote for the BJP because Modi is doing good work. By god’s grace, BJP will win this time.”
At another campaign procession in Chennai this week, the BJP’s local candidate Paul Kanagaraj implored voters to help Modi break through regional parties’ hold on the state.
“Vote for change,” he said through a microphone, his bus surrounded by BJP flag-waving motorcyclists. “Every [BJP] candidate contesting in Tamil Nadu was personally selected by Modi. He’s the one who is capable of taking action against corruption.”
Many political commentators are sceptical, however, that the BJP can overcome the wide political, economic and social divisions between north and south.
Many south Indians fiercely resent the BJP’s efforts to promote Hindi, which is unrelated to southern languages such as Telugu or Malayalam. The BJP’s hardline Hindu nationalism also has limited appeal, with local leaders blaming the party’s rhetoric for inflaming religious tensions. In Kerala, for example, nearly half the population is Muslim or Christian and beef-eating — taboo among most northern Hindus — is widespread.
“Why do I want to adapt to a culture that’s not my own?” Ruben, a 45-year-old municipal worker in Chennai, said. “I’m a Christian . . . Whoever I worship is my choice. And people from outside should not force me to adopt any religion.”
Southern parties have characterised the BJP’s southern push as an existential threat to the region’s autonomy under India’s federal system.
Since coming to office in 2014, Modi has centralised political and economic power, in particular with a 2017 reform — strongly opposed in Tamil Nadu — that replaced local and state taxes with a national system.
“The BJP is trying to force India into one nation, one election, one party, and one Narendra Modi,” said Dayanidhi Maran, a DMK member of parliament for Chennai and former government minister. “This will be a disaster for the country.”
This polarisation only risks becoming greater after the polls, when authorities are due to redraw India’s electoral boundaries in 2026 to reflect population growth for the first time since 1976.
The exercise is widely expected to result in an increase in seats in the north, where populations have grown faster in recent decades.
Political scientist Neelanjan Sircar, estimated last year that this would add 11 per cent more seats to southern states and 63 per cent more for the northern states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.
To southern parties such as the DMK, which opposes the move, this will cement the dominance of Hindi-speaking northern parties like the BJP for decades.
“It’s almost as if we’re being penalised . . . for having done well,” said Manuraj S, a DMK spokesperson. “For ensuring that we have better female literacy, better women labour force participation . . . which means our population has grown at a slower rate.”
Narayanan Thirupathy, a BJP vice-president in Tamil Nadu, accused his rivals of trying to sensationalise the issue and “make this a political agenda”.
What they failed to understand, he added, was how the state’s loyalties were changing. “We are going to make a silent revolution in Tamil Nadu . . . People are ready to vote for the BJP.”
