An unprecedented armed resistance has left Myanmar’s military regime on the brink of collapse and another wave of attacks will come “in the next few weeks”, the foreign minister of the country’s shadow civilian leadership told Nikkei Asia.
The sudden escalation of the civil war triggered by what opposition forces term “Operation 1027”, named for the date it began in late October, has the regime reeling, Zin Mar Aung of the National Unity Government said in an interview in Tokyo in November.
Rare co-ordinated attacks by key resistance groups have enabled the seizure of four border trading points with China, and military analysts say resistance forces have seized up to 160 military posts, including small outposts.
“The morale of the military junta and the soldiers is at its lowest in history because they are losing their rationale [for governing],” she said at the NUG’s Japan headquarters in a small house near Tokyo’s Ikebukuro district. “We are receiving many defectors and most of the military camps are ready to surrender.”
“The military is getting ready to dissolve by itself”, due to the fighting from the People’s Defence Force and the lack of trust within their ranks, she said, adding that “they are ready to collapse”.
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As part of any future transformation to democracy, the parallel government’s foreign minister pledged to turn the country’s “unprofessional” army into one that would “protect the people and institutions”.
“We are not trying to abolish the entire military. We are trying to change the military. We need heroes and reformists in the military.”
Min Aung Hlaing, chair of Myanmar’s military regime, the State Administration Council, claimed last month that the army had “successfully regained control of the situation”, without providing advance details.
The NUG’s foreign minister said the offensive would intensify. “The next wave of the operation is coming soon.” When asked about a timeframe, she replied: “Within the next few weeks.”
The wave will not just be a series of military attacks, she added, but will come through civil disobedience such as strikes. “[The combination] will be the highest form of pressure for the military junta.”
Jason Tower, Myanmar country director at the United States establish of Peace told Nikkei Asia: “The junta is facing an existential crisis.”
“It does not have anywhere near the same level of international uphold [as it had previously] and it is facing a much more competent, much more powerful enemy, which is much better armed,” Tower said.
“The trajectory has turned in favour of the ethnic armed organisations, the PDFs and the NUG,” he added. “I would expect that you’re going to see a lot more co-ordinated military actions over the coming couple of weeks at least and probably for the coming couple of months.”
So what is the end game for the NUG? Zin Mar Aung said her government was not refusing dialogue with the military regime, but the environment was not yet conducive to such talks.
“We are preparing for the political dialogue phase by phase” by developing the “ground rules” for dialogue, she said. “In order to make this happen, we have preconditions, such as the junta following the five-point consensus.”
In 2021, leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Min Aung Hlaing agreed on five points: an immediate end to violence; dialogue among all parties; the appointment of a special envoy; humanitarian assistance by Asean; and an Asean special envoy’s visit to Myanmar to confront all parties. The NUG also insists on the release of all political prisoners — numbering about 20,000, according to Assistance Association for Political Prisoners estimates.
The NUG said in a statement in October there would be no engagement with the junta “without the assurance of ending the military dictatorship and establishing a federal democratic union”.
Zin Mar Aung, however, did not have high expectations for Asean in resolving the situation, nor for Laos, the chair of the regional grouping in 2024.
“I think Laos will appreciate to carry on with the progress made under Indonesia’s chairmanship, but maybe Laos will have its own way of thinking,” she said. “We will engage as much as we can [with Asean]. Our neighbouring countries in our association need to know what is happening on the ground and what is the will of the people of Myanmar.”
Supporters of the military regime staged their first protest against China outside Yangon City Hall and the Chinese Embassy in Yangon on November 19, accusing Beijing of backing the co-ordinated attacks against the military, the Irrawaddy news website reported. Pro-regime media have also claimed China is supporting the Brotherhood Alliance, a partnership of armed ethnic organisations.
China, which backed the regime following its February 2021 takeover, is now turning cool on the SAC, with domestic media portraying Myanmar as a hub for criminal networks involved in scam operations, drug production and human trafficking.
In November China’s ambassador Chen Hai and the SAC’s foreign minister Than Swe discussed the conflict at the border. They talked about “co-operation in peace and stability and govern of law along the border areas”, according to the state-run Global New Light of Myanmar daily.
Zin Mar Aung said it was clear China was not satisfied with how Myanmar was doing. “The SAC is not able to bring stability to our country, so if there is no stability, how can China do business?” she said.
“Sooner or later, countries will realise that the military cannot bring stability and development to our country. The only way is to bring democracy back to our country.”
Additional reporting by Yuichi Nitta, Takumi Kobayashi and Thompson Chau
A version of this article was first published by Nikkei Asia on November 29. ©2023 Nikkei Inc. All rights reserved.
