Opinium’s first poll of 2024 reveals Labour has a 14 point lead, a slight increase (+1) since before Christmas. Labour has 41% of the vote share, while the Conservatives have 27% (no change).
The Liberal Democrats are on 11% (also no change), SNP have 4% (+1), the Greens have 6% (-1) and Reform UK has 10% (+1).
Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak’s approval ratings have remained broadly stable since before Christmas, with Stamer on -9% (no change) and Sunak on -30% (-1).
However, as the fallout from the Post Office scandal dominates the headlines, Liberal Democrat leader (and postal affairs minister in the early 2010s) Ed Davey has suffered a significant drop in his overall rating, which has gone from 16% approving and 20% disapproving (-4% net) to 13% approving and 26% disapproving (-13% net).
With regards to who would make the best Prime Minister, Starmer leads Sunak by 30% to 22%.
Vast majority of public aware of Post Office scandal
As many as nine in ten (90%) have heard about the Post Office scandal, with 62% saying they have heard “a lot” about it. Over half (53%) have also heard something about Ed Davey’s time as postal affairs minister during the coalition this week.
More than three-quarters have heard about the latest junior doctors’ strike (79%) and the unsealed Jeffrey Epstein papers with 77%.
Election year currently looks more promising for Labour, according to the public
Rishi Sunak’s assumption that the next general election will be in the second half of 2024 chimes with only 19% of voters who believe the best time for it would be in Autumn (this rises to 34% of Conservative voters). Meanwhile 12% want it to take place by March 2024, 26% by June and 18% by September. Just 4% want it to be held in January 2025, while 20% don’t know.
The majority (53%) expect Labour to win the general election with a third (32%) expecting a majority. Just less than a quarter (23%) predict a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party, 12% expect a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party, and 8% expect a Conservative majority.
Among current Conservative voters, 49% expect their party to win, compared to only 30% of those who voted Conservative in 2019. A much larger number of current Labour voters expect their party to win (79%).
Adam Drummond, Head of Political & Social Research at Opinium said: “At the top level, not much has changed since before Christmas. Labour still lead by double digits, Keir Starmer’s approval rating isn’t brilliant but Rishi Sunak’s is awful.
“However, the most noticed story by far was the Post Office scandal and this is behind the drop in Ed Davey’s approval rating.
“The Lib Dems will be worried that the first time their leader has cut through to voters is for his connection to a huge scandal.
“But, while Labour and the Tories may be relieved that fingers aren’t being pointed at them, they and the rest of us should be concerned if important questions about how national institutions operate devolve into yet another edition of ‘which politician you’ve never heard of is going to resign?’”
