Judgment day for the ANC and Modi, and perhaps Trump

Hello and welcome to the working week.

We have entered a period of political endings, and perhaps one or two triumphant returns, in this historic year of elections.

South Africa holds a general election on Wednesday with voter surveys suggesting the ruling African National Congress will lose the absolute majority it has held since 1994. A landmark moment, if it happens. One person who will not be standing is former president Jacob Zuma. Read this to understand the political nuances, and this by FT foreign editor Alec Russell to understand the problems facing ANC leader, and current president, Cyril Ramaphosa.

Now, an amendment to last week’s claim that Donald Trump’s trial would wrap up quickly in New York. It didn’t, and it still might not this week, but we have been told that closing arguments will begin on Tuesday and could last until Wednesday, after which the jury will begin its deliberations. So we’re in the territory of predicting the length of a piece of string before we get a verdict. This is of course very distracting for the former US president, who has a re-election campaign to fund. Click here to sign up to our twice-weekly newsletter with all the insights, US Election Countdown.

The polls will close in India’s parliamentary elections on Saturday with a comfortable win expected for two-term strongman Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) even as signs emerge of “the cult of Modi” losing its lustre. However, we will have to wait until June 4 for the official results of this contest.

Mexicans get to vote on Sunday. Claudia Sheinbaum, the candidate from the incumbent party, is 20 to 30 points ahead in the polls, though the opposition argues that many of these surveys are biased.

The economic data run will be more of a jog, at least to start the week, thanks to Monday’s Memorial Day public holiday in the US and the UK’s late May bank holiday. GDP updates are a theme, with revised first-quarter figures from the US on Thursday and fourth-quarter figures from India on Friday.

We’re nearing the close of the current earnings season, which means just a dribble of company reports. Hess shareholders will vote on the $53bn sale to US oil major Chevron on Wednesday — or rather they may not. A tense dispute over oil-rich Guyana is casting a shadow over the deal.

Talking of deals, Wednesday is also the deadline for BHP to make a final bid for its smaller rival Anglo American after the latter extended takeover talks last week even after rejecting a third £38.6bn approach. BHP has until 5pm BST to make another offer. Click here to read more about Anglo’s “drastic” plan to remain independent.

Also, a quick plug for an upcoming FT event. Join more than 10,000 tech industry leaders and enthusiasts in Amsterdam on June 20-21 for the TNW Conference. With over 190 speakers, including former Danish prime minister and co-chair of the oversight board of Meta Helle Thorning-Schmidt, and HSBC’s Europe chief executive Colin Bell. As a newsletter subscriber, register using our exclusive promo code FT-SUBS-50 to save 50 per cent of the regular pass fee.

One more thing . . . 

Friday is the anniversary of a special day for millions of parents of children of a certain age: the first broadcast of the cult television series Peppa Pig. The Moules household was always more Octonauts, then (of course) Doctor Who. But for those with fond memories, here’s a charming piece from the FT archive providing some insight into the people, and the business model, behind the world-famous grunter.

What are your plans for the next seven days? Are your priorities different to The Week Ahead? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at the central bank’s Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies International Conference in Tokyo.

• Germany: ifo May Business Climate Index survey

• Israel: interest rate decision

• UK: Spring bank holiday. Financial markets closed.

• US: Memorial Day. Financial markets closed.

Tuesday

• Australia: April retail trade figures

• EU: European Central Bank Economic Expectations Survey

• UK: British Retail Consortium shop price index

• Results: Softcat Q3 trading update, Victorian Plumbing HY

Wednesday

• Hess shareholders vote on $53bn sale to Chevron.

• 5pm deadline (extended by a week last Wednesday) for BHP to make a formal bid for its smaller rival Anglo American.

• Australia: April consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate indicator

• France: May consumer confidence figures

• Germany: preliminary May CPI and harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data. Also, GfK consumer confidence figures.

• US: Federal Reserve Beige Book

• Results: Abercrombie & Fitch Q1, Agilent Technologies Q2, HP Q2, Impax Asset Management HY, JD Sports Fashion FY, Pets at Home FY, Salesforce Q1

Thursday

• EU: April unemployment figures

• South Africa: interest rate decision

• US: revised Q1 GDP figures

• Results: Auto Trader FY, Best Buy Q1, Birkenstock Q2, Costco Q3, Dollar General Q1, Dr Martens FY, Gap Q1, Nordstrom Q1, Renewi FY

Friday

• Flutter Entertainment transfers its listing category on the main market of the London Stock Exchange from “premium” to “standard” in order to relocate the company’s primary listing to the New York Stock Exchange.

• Canada: Q1 GDP figures

• EU: May preliminary Eurozone HICP inflation rate estimates

• France: Q1 GDP plus preliminary CPI and HICP inflation rate figures

• Germany: April retail trade turnover figures

• India: Q4 GDP figures

• Japan: April labour force and industrial production figures

• UK: Nationwide May House Price Index. Also, April effective interest rates data.

• US: April personal income figures

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• France: French National Assembly starts examining a bill allowing assisted dying, introduced by President Emmanuel Macron’s government.

• Kenya: African Development Bank members gather in Nairobi for the institution’s annual meeting, running until Friday.

• Switzerland: 77th World Health Assembly, a meeting of the supreme decision-making body of the World Health Organization, opens in Geneva.

Tuesday

• Germany: French President Macron concludes his state visit to his country’s larger European neighbour.

• US: closing arguments expected in the trial of former president Donald Trump on charges of falsifying business records for ‘hush money’ payments.

Wednesday

Thursday

• Czech Republic: Nato foreign ministers gather in Prague for a two-day informal meeting, expected to discuss the conflict in Ukraine against Russia.

• UK: Westminster parliament dissolved ahead of July 4 general election.

• US: finals of the annual Scripps National Spelling Bee held this year in the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center in National Harbor, Maryland.

Friday

Saturday

• First day of meteorological summer

• Austria: Opec ministerial meeting, featuring non-Opec countries, including Russia, to discuss market conditions and production adjustments.

• Iceland: presidential election

• India: polls close for parliamentary elections. Results expected on June 4.

Sunday