JPMorgan Chase Stock Is Near All-Time Highs. Will the Bank Raise Its Dividend in 2024?

2023 was good to JPMorgan Chase (JPM 0.21%), as the stock posted a total return in excess of 30% for the year. Even as CEO Jamie Dimon repeatedly raised concerns about macroeconomic conditions and their potential impact on the broader stock market landscape, the premier Wall Street bank took advantage of an opportunity early in the year to cement its leadership status atop the industry.

Income investors have loved JPMorgan for years because of the bank stock‘s commitment to sharing its financial success with its shareholders. Even though the company uses extensive stock repurchases, those seeking dividends have also been pleased with the bank’s track record. Coming into 2024, many investors have high hopes that JPMorgan will once again increase the amount it pays to its shareholders on a quarterly basis.

Dividend stats on JPMorgan Chase

Source: Yahoo! Finance. Last increase refers to ex-dividend date.

A 20-fold dividend increase in 13 years

Long-time JPMorgan Chase shareholders have enjoyed massive dividend growth over time but have had to endure extensive volatility. Until the financial crisis in 2008, JPMorgan was the model of consistency, maintaining healthy dividend payments at competitive yields and offering occasional hikes in quarterly payouts. However, when the banking system approached the brink of collapse, JPMorgan joined other financial institutions, eventually cutting its payout by 87% to just $0.05 per share quarterly in 2010.

When the crisis ended, however, JPMorgan participated fully in the bull market of the 2010s. By 2014, annual dividends had exceeded its pre-crisis watermark. Now, regular annual increases have brought the quarterly payout to $1.05 per share — a 2,000% increase in 13 years.

JPM Dividend data by YCharts.

The most recent increase was announced last September, when the bank said it would boost its October quarterly payment by 5%. That was actually the first increase since 2021, as JPMorgan has relied on the timing of its dividend hikes to ensure the total annual amount in any given year will be higher than the previous year. It was also the smallest hike in percentage terms since 2017.

Will JPMorgan skip a year of dividend hikes in 2024?

Based on JPMorgan’s recent behavior, there’s a good chance it could leave its dividend unchanged throughout 2024. Even if it makes no changes, the total of $4.20 per share in anticipated dividends this year would exceed the total of $4.05 per share paid out in 2023. That would allow JPMorgan technically to keep its streak alive.

Indeed, Dimon expressed continued caution in the most recent JPMorgan Chase conference call in October. Between still-elevated levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus, geopolitical instability, and policy efforts that have raised the cost of capital, the JPMorgan CEO believes there’s an above-average number of uncertainties that could cause short-term headwinds.

Stock analysts are also cautious. With fourth-quarter earnings due out Friday, Jan. 12, the consensus forecast calls for a roughly 4% drop in year-over-year profit. Those following the stock expect a 5% decline in earnings for 2024.

Even then, though, JPMorgan’s payout ratio would remain well below 30%. So even if the bank chooses to leave its dividend unchanged in 2024, investors can still feel comfortable that JPMorgan Chase remains in healthy financial condition and should be able to sustain its longer-term track record of dividend growth for years to come.