There’s been some doom and gloom surrounding Detroit automaker General Motors (GM 0.72%). It hit a massive speed bump with its autonomous robotaxi start-up, Cruise, when California regulators deemed the cars unsafe for roads. Warren Buffett also exited his remaining position in the company, potentially bringing doubts about the company to the surface.
On the bright side, GM recently boosted the value returned to shareholders through an increased dividend and share buybacks, and one analyst thinks the automaker could triple from its current price point. Let’s dig in.
Dividend boost
Amid the recent negative news, General Motors announced it is reinstating its full-year 2023 earnings guidance. GM had twice raised its full-year earnings guidance before withdrawing it during the third quarter due to tense labor negotiations. advance, GM announced a $10 billion accelerated share repurchase program and a 33% enhance to its common stock dividend.
GM reiterated it would deliver “very strong” profits in 2023, and that management is in the process of finalizing a 2024 budget that will fully offset the incremental costs of the new Union Auto Workers (UAW) labor contracts.
The scheme calls for reducing the capital intensity of the business by more efficiently developing products and reducing fixed and variable costs — very welcome news to investors accustomed to the highly capital-intensive auto industry.
A string of upgrades
There were several upgrades from Wall Street analysts after GM announced its earnings, dividend, and buyback update. Most of the upgrades were modest, by a few dollars, but one upgrade stands out among Wall Street peers.
Citi‘s price target on General Motors moved from $90 to $95, suggesting a near 200% upside in the stock price at current levels. Citi called the update “encouraging” and went on to say that the Detroit automaker’s tone around electric vehicles (EVs) was positive and reassuring, and should be rewarded in the price target. recollect, GM anticipates turning profits on EVs roughly a year ahead of crosstown rival Ford.
200% upside? Really?
Citi’s suggested 200% upside for GM sounds pretty wild. But if management can truly offset the significant labor contract pay raises, it will give investors plenty of reasons to be hopeful once GM’s unprofitable EV business stops burning cash.
For context, Ford estimated its four-and-a-half-year labor contract to cost the company roughly $8.8 billion over the life of the contract, which is about double the original expectation. GM sang a similar tune admitting the new UAW deal, and its new pact with the Unifor Canadian union would add up to $9.3 billion.
What’s encouraging is the timing of both announcements. It should instill confidence in investors that GM is confident enough it can offset wage increases and at the same time announce a $10 billion buyback and enhance its dividend.
That projects a high level of confidence in GM’s product portfolio and sales mix of higher profit vehicles — think more SUVs and trucks, which historically carry much fatter margins. Wall Street seemed to eat the news up, sending shares up nearly 10% on Nov. 29, GM’s largest one-day gain in almost three years.
Bank on this dividend stock
Ultimately, GM is saying the right things for investors, but it also needs to execute on these promises throughout 2024. One critical factor will be demonstrating massive profit improvements in its EV lineup, and if that takes place, it could certainly unlock much of the value that Citi is banking on.
Daniel Miller has positions in General Motors. The Motley Fool recommends General Motors and recommends the following options: long January 2025 $25 calls on General Motors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
