International Game Technology Plc (IGT) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

International Game Technology Plc (IGT -4.30%)
Q3 2023 Earnings Call
Oct 31, 2023, 8:00 a.m. ET

Contents:

• Prepared Remarks
• Questions and Answers
• Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Hello and welcome to the International Game Technology Q3 2023 earnings call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator instructions] I’ll now turn the conference over to James Hurley, senior vice president of investor relations.

Please go ahead.

Jim Hurley — Senior Vice President, Investor Relations

Thank you and thank you, all, for joining us on IGT’s Q3 2023 conference call, which is hosted by Vince Sadusky, our chief executive officer; and Max Chiara, our chief financial officer. After some prepared remarks, Vince and Max will be available for your questions. We are presenting from multiple locations today. So, please bear with us if we encounter any technical difficulties.

During today’s call, we’ll be making some forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees, and our actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. The principal risks and uncertainties that could cause our results to differ materially from our current expectations are detailed in our latest earnings release and in our SEC filings. During this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures.

You’ll find additional disclosures regarding these non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations with comparable GAAP measures, in our press release, slides accompanying this webcast, and our filings with the SEC, each of which is posted on our investor relations website. And now, I’ll turn the call over to Vince Sadusky.

Vince Sadusky — Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Jim, and hello to everyone joining us. Well, we’re reporting strong Q3 and year-to-date results today. Excellent momentum and key performance indicators across all segments drove the year-to-date revenue up 8% when adjusted for the sale of Italy commercial services. That includes 5% growth for our global lottery segment, a 12% increase for global gaming and 17% expansion for PlayDigital. Q3 was aligned with year-to-date trends with revenue up 6% out of Italy commercial services.

That translated into good profit growth. Q3 operating income rose 13%, or 20% net of commercial services, and achieved a record operating margin for a third-quarter period. Year-to-date operating income was up 8% or 13% net of Italy commercial services and the operating margin expanded over 100 basis points to 23%. We delivered 200 basis points of EBITDA margin expansion to 42% in the first nine months with each operating segment contributing to the improvement.

This puts us firmly on track to achieve our full-year 2023 revenue and margin goals. Moving on to segment-level performance. Global Lottery same-store sales were up 3% in the third quarter, in line with the 4% growth for the year-to-date period and building on a strong multi-year growth trajectory. Italy performance in the first nine months continues to impress with 8% same-store sales growth, fueled by increases for both Scratch and Win and Lotto games. A consistent flow of game innovation, complemented by our unique player insights and strategic portfolio optimization initiatives, have been the key drivers of Italy’s growth this year. In the U.S.

and the rest of the world, same-store sales are up over 3% on robust Powerball and Mega Millions sales in the U.S. During the quarter, IGT extended several long-standing business partnerships. California is the second-largest lottery in the U.S., and IGT’s relationship there spans more than three decades. Over that time, our solutions have powered over 41 billion in support for California’s public schools. A seven-year extension in California secures this important partnership through at least October of 2033.

We also secured two 10-year contract extensions with the Kentucky Lottery Corporation, where IGT will remain the primary technology provider for both retail and iLottery solutions through 2036. It’s another 30-plus-year partnership to fund higher education throughout Kentucky. Our current lottery contract portfolio has a revenue-weighted six years remaining with extension options. The California and Kentucky extensions speak to the confidence and trust the world’s premier lotteries have in IGT’s best-in-class modern lottery solutions. This includes our cloud-based systems platforms and OMNIA, our new player-centric omnichannel solution. iLottery sales continue to expand at a brisk pace, rising over 50% in the first nine months, reflecting broad-based momentum around the world.

We continue to deploy IGT’s latest cloud-based AI lottery platform and remote game server for customers in Lithuania, Paraguay, Poland, and Switzerland. In addition, we are installing new platforms in markets like Connecticut, where we’ll launch iLottery later this year. Today, I’m joining you from the annual North American Association of State and Provincial Lotteries Conference in Milwaukee where IGT is demonstrating its global lottery industry leadership. This includes the launch of the Retailer Pro S2, a sequel to the most popular lottery terminal in the U.S. We’ll also be showcasing the industry’s first 48-inch self-service vending machine, as well as a digital menu board that is modern, sleek way for retailers to highlight instant ticket games and other promotional content at the point of sale. Lottery Link is another exciting innovation.

It’s the first and only solution to enable instant and draw game sales without a dedicated lottery terminal or software changes to the retailer point of sale. And it’s a key enabler of our focus to expand in-lane lottery purchases at big box retailers nationwide. Let’s move on to global gaming where compelling games and innovative new cabinets are driving strong results. Q3 revenue growth of 8% fueled an over 40% increase in operating income. The year-to-date performance is equally impressive with revenue up 12% and operating increasing — operating income increasing 34% on a broad-based momentum across the business. Year-to-date global unit shipments are up 10%, complemented by a 7% increase in average selling prices.

We’ve maintained the leading North American ship share for 4.5 years, and we have some terrific new games and hardware that we believe can maintain our momentum. The new DiamondRS mechanical reel stepper has been well received, claiming about 40% share of North American mechanical reel stepper shipments over the last year. We have another multi-level progressive success story with Magic Treasures whose two-game theme secured top spots in a recent new core video game survey. Progress is equally good for our lease games where the global installed base grew for the fifth consecutive quarter. Prosperity Link continues to perform strongly with over 3,500 units deployed worldwide. We are building on that momentum with Mystery of the Lamp introduced in June on our new PeakCurve 49 cabinet, which was recently recognized as the leading portrait upright cabinet in North America.

We already have over 600 Mystery of the Lamp units in the field, generating productivity over 2.5 times floor average. The two base games continue to be among the top new premium lease and WAP games in a recent Eilers survey. We just came back from a strong showing at G2E where our product strategies were clear. For lease games, we intend to drive our success in MLPs and secure our fair share of that category with five new concepts, including two new Prosperity Link base games. We expect to enhance our presence in the video WAP category with six new concepts, including the launch of Whitney Houston slots in the new SkyRise cabinet. And we intend to extend our separate leadership with the introduction of the DiamondRS Premium Cabinet, building on the success we’ve had with sales of the DiamondRS.

On the for-sale side of the business, we plan to build on our leading North American ship share by making the PeakCurve 49 available for sale. We’re doing this with a library of proven game families such as Magic Treasures, Samurai 888, and Kitty Glitter, supported by player-centric game features. Until now, the PeakCurve49 was exclusive to lease games. Video poker and mechanical reel steppers are areas where IGT has very strong market leadership positions. In many cases, our new video poker content is outperforming legacy content by over two times, and we’ve expanded the cabinet to offer — cabinet offer to maximize our global opportunity.

The PeakBarTop is one of the most impactful new video poker hardware introductions in the category, and CrystalCurve and Cobalt cabinets offer new ways to grow our domestic and international video poker presence. As I mentioned earlier, the DiamondRS has revitalized our mechanical reel offer and presents a compelling replacement opportunity for us. At G2E, we expanded our for-sale offer with the DiamondRS 27 developed for high-limit rooms where IGT typically enjoys outsized shares. Profit expansion is the main story of PlayDigital in the third quarter with operating income up 32%. In the first nine months of the year, PlayDigital revenue rose 17% and operating profit increased 46%.

iGaming growth has been fueled by key content strategies and the incremental contribution from iSoftBet in the first half of the year. We expect to launch about 60 new games this year, more than double our historical pace. This expanded capacity, in addition to some unique capabilities, enables us to provide compelling value to our customers and players alike. One example is with the development of bespoke games such as Caesars Cleopatra for Caesars Palace Online Casino and Fort Knox Cleopatra for FanDuel. Another example is the launch of Wheel of Fortune Triple Gold Spin in New Jersey, the first-ever omnichannel jackpot game in the U.S., leveraging the success of our popular Powerbucks game in Canada. We’re looking to expand omnichannel games to new U.S.

markets this year and launch Money Mania as a new omnichannel link in Canada this quarter. We are just starting to deploy our sophisticated user engagement tools that offer real-time, personalized player recommendations and promotions. We expect this unique leading-edge technology to drive productivity through a richer player experience and build a strong and sustainable competitive advantage for our content. We continue to expand our sports betting customer base and now power nearly 100 casino sportsbooks across North America. We recently introduced livestreaming sports and sports betting functionality on the PeakBarTop and CrystalFlex terminals.

Players can now watch a sporting event, bet on sports, and play video poker or slots, all at the same terminal. Both generated a lot of interest at G2E. We had a great third quarter, and it’s been a productive first nine months of the year. Our results place us firmly on track to achieve our full-year 2023 financial goals. We are doing this with a steadfast commitment to being a good corporate citizen evidenced by momentum with key ESG initiatives, including the validation of our SBTI targets and improved ratings from several third-party agencies. As many of you know, we are evaluating strategic alternatives for the global gaming and PlayDigital segments.

That work is underway and progressing. At the same time, we have established a strong foundation for achieving our 2025 financial targets. The innovative new solutions featured at recent trade shows will be important catalysts in reaching our goals and in creating significant value for all stakeholders. Now, I’ll turn the call over to Max.

Max Chiara — Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Vince, and welcome to everyone joining us today. Once again, we’re very pleased with the results on display today. We’ve been able to achieve or exceed our outlook as a result of a resilient performance in Global Lottery, fueled by elevated play levels and a persistent jackpot performance, the continuation of the global gaming turnaround story with a further acceleration on its profitable growth trajectory, and a PlayDigital performance continuing to deliver substantial profit flow-through. We generated more than $1 billion in revenue in the third quarter, consistent with the prior year, driven by strong key performance indicators across our three business segments. Revenue grew 6% excluding prior-year contributions from the Italy commercial service business that was sold in September 2022.

Q3 operating income rose 13% to 239 million, and adjusted EBITDA of 433 million was up 8% led by double-digit increases in global gaming and PlayDigital. These growth rates are even higher when you exclude $12 million in profit that was contributed by the commercial service business in the prior year. Profit margin expansion was also a notable achievement with operating income margin growth of 250 basis points to more than 22%, the highest level for a third-quarter period in company history, and adjusted EBITDA margin up to 170 basis points to 41%. As we mentioned last quarter, along with good organic performance driven by solid KPI improvement, we benefited from some operational process improvements in our product development that now require capitalization and amortization of certain costs that were historically expense as incurred. The resulting impact was a financial benefit of about 10 million to operating income and approximately 20 million to adjusted EBITDA. The effective tax rate in the quarter was 35%, in line with our expectations that it would normalize in the second half of 2023.

On a year-to-date basis, the effective tax rate adjusted for unusual or nonrecurring items is in line with our full-year estimate in the mid-30s percent range. We delivered $0.46 in diluted earnings per share versus $1.30 in the prior year as the prior year included some large non-operating items such as the gain on the sale of the commercial service business and the accrual of the DDI/Benson’s matter settlement. Adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.52 was up 21% from $0.43 in the prior year, primarily driven by the higher operating income performance. Now, I would like to review the results of each business segments beginning with Global Lottery. Third-quarter revenue of about 600 million was down 4% but up 5%, adjusting for the sale of Italy commercial service to underscore the underlying business performance more properly. Global same-store sales rose 3% driven by a nearly 5% increase in Italy with strong contributions from both instant ticket and draw games, and a nearly 3% increase in North America and rest of world, which benefited from elevated jackpot activity. Double-digit growth rates continue in iLottery, where same-store sales grew 24% in the quarter on broad-based strength across geographies and game types.

Penetration in IGT serve territories continue to expand at a rapid pace, reaching double digits in the U.S. and growing. Profitability was very strong with operating income of 206 million and OI margin of 34%, up 60 basis points compared to the prior year. At this point, we’ve been cruising well within the 25 — 2025 target range established at our 2021 Investor Day for at least the last seven quarters in a row. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 51%, up 150 basis points and maintaining a level in excess of 50% for the third consecutive quarter.

In Q4, we expect to maintain low single-digit same-store sales growth for instant ticket and draw games. Keep in mind, we have difficult North America and rest of world jackpot comparisons as the prior year included a 2 billion Powerball jackpot, which contributed about 20 million in revenue and profit. Instead, most of the benefit from this October Powerball jackpot was realized in Q3. Turning to gaming. We generate a strong revenue and profit growth during the third quarter with broad-based contributions across the product portfolio. Revenue of 409 million increased 8% over the prior year, propelled by growth in the installed base and higher system and software sales.

The global installed base rose more than 470 units sequentially to over 52,600 unit with balanced growth across U.S., Canada, and the rest of the world. And yields continue to hold at nice levels. Global unit shipments exceeded 1,900 — 9,100 units led by a 23% increase in U.S. and Canada casino replacement. Global ASPs were down slightly due to a higher mix of VLT and poker games as we continue to ramp up our efforts in delivering the new successful games and cabinets in the core video category. In fact, ASPs can vary quarter to quarter due to cadence of new product launches.

And at this juncture, we expect Q4 ASPs to be more aligned with the levels we saw in the first half of the year. Higher system sales were primarily related to enhancements and upgrades to our Advantage casino management system from existing customers. And software revenue grew on strong customer and player demand for IGT leading portfolio of poker products. Operating income of 93 million increase 42%, including about 10 million in benefit coming from the capitalization of R&D costs from the process improvement previously discussed. Operating income margin expanded 550 basis points to 23%, fueled by the easing of supply chain challenges, the higher margin system sales, and the said R&D process improvements. In-play digital iGaming GGR trends remain strong with double-digit increases across geographies.

iGaming revenue was up year over year even in the absence of new jurisdictions coming online, driven by strong player demand for wide-area progressive games. However, overall player digital revenue was flat year over year as iGaming growth was offset by the cessation of operations in certain legacy iSoftBet jurisdictions, and sports betting was lower primarily due to unusually high hold levels in the prior year, along with unusually low levels this quarter. Operating income rose 32% to $16 million on increased operating leverage and iSoftBet acquisition costs in the prior year. Operating income margin expanded 660 basis points to 28%, progressing nicely toward the 2025 target of 30-plus percent. We continue to deliver solid cash flows with year-to-date cash flow from operations totaling approximately $640 million, which includes an after-tax impact of the final settlement of the DDI/Benson matter of about 185 million. Cash from operations was 825 million when you adjust for this item.

We expect robust cash flow generation to continue in the fourth quarter as strong profit contribution is accentuated by working capital benefits. We amended the definition of free cash flow last quarter to include deferred license payments, which represent capital invested in IP for game development and are a component of financing activities on the cash flow statement. Year-to-date capex and payments on deferred license fee totaled around 315 million, resulting in free cash flow of 324 million. Adjusted free cash flow, which excludes payment on legal settlements, is a better measure of the operational cash generated by these businesses and exceeded 500 million for the first nine months of the year. Net debt leverage has improved to three times as we have been able to fully absorb the impact of the DDI/Benson matter in just two quarters. Excluding that item, net debt leverage would have been slightly below 2.9 times, which is a new record.

On a year-to-date basis, 120 million in capital has been returned to shareholders in the form of cash dividends. Late last week, we announced a make-whole call of the remaining 112 million euro of — the 3.5% Eurobond due in 2024. The repayment of these bonds is scheduled to occur in November as we expect to build incremental free cash flow from our business operations during the quarter. Financial flexibility remains high, backed by total liquidity of 1.9 billion comprised of about 600 million in unrestricted cash and additional borrowing capacity from undrawn credit facilities of approximately 1.3 billion. We are tightening our full-year outlook for revenue to about 4.3 billion, at the top end of the previous range, based on the strong year-to-date financial performance.

The outlook for operating income remain, margin remain at about 23% with cash from operations of 900 million to 1 billion and capex of 400 million to 450 million. The full-year outlook, coupled with year-to-date, results implies a revenue target for the fourth quarter of around 1.1 billion. This assumes Global Lottery revenue growth — grows low to mid-single digits, including higher planned product sales revenue with global gaming and PlayDigital revenue in line with prior year. As a reminder, fourth-quarter operating income is expected to include a total of about $25 million from restructuring costs in Italy and project costs related to the exploration of strategic alternatives for global gaming and PlayDigital segments. Year to date, we have spent about 14 million on project cost. To summarize, we are pleased with the financial results we delivered in the third quarter, which included revenue growth, margin expansion, and strong cash flow generation.

We’re tightening our full-year revenue outlook to the top end of the previous range and maintaining a profit margin outlook given the strong year-to-date performance. We are well positioned for the future with net debt leverage already comfortably within our long-term target range, no meaningful near-term debt maturities, and access to significant liquidity. And now, I would like to ask the operator to open the line for questions.

Questions & Answers:

Operator

Thank you. [Operator instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Barry Jonas of Truist Securities. Your line is open.

Barry Jonas — Truist Securities — Analyst

Hey guys, good morning. There have been some talk about potential competition for the Italian lotto contract when it comes up for renewal in a few years. Just curious if you can talk about your positioning there overall. Thanks.

Vince Sadusky — Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, sure thing, I’ll take it. You know, we’ve — we’ve — we’ve had — we’ve run the — the Italian lotto concession for a very long period of time. You heard the results, I think, as a result of the team being absolutely outstanding. You know, we’ve taken a very old lottery and continued to innovate and drive incremental sales. This is a very mature marketplace with very sophisticated players. And I think the ability to — to innovate both on the retail side and on the game development side has generated great results for — for all the stakeholders, certainly the state, the tobacconists, or the IGT.

Yeah, I thin, ultimately, we’ll — we’ll see what the competition is. We feel very confident with — with our opportunity the — our knowledge and ability to work very closely with the — with the regulators as well in growing the — the games. And, you know, we really don’t have more insight to offer up at at this point, but we believe our leadership and our — our tenured position is clearly clearly an advantage for us.

Barry Jonas — Truist Securities — Analyst

Got it, got it. That makes sense. And then, just as a follow-up, you mentioned the strategic evaluation continues to progress. Just curious if you can give any more color there.

I know folks are wondering if the financing environment is influencing the review at all. And then, I’m also curious to get your thoughts on how the gaming and digital businesses are performing relative to your expectations. When you actually started this — this process, it seems like they’re doing quite well. Thank you.

Vince Sadusky — Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, sure thing, great question. I mean, we — you know, when we — when we talk about this internally, we’re talking about, you know, the things you can control, the things you can’t control. The most important thing for our business internally when entering into one of these processes is to ensure that, you know, we’ve done what we can do from a management perspective to keep our teams focused on the business of growing lottery and on growing gaming. And fortunately, that’s gone — that’s gone very well. The market continues to be good from an industry perspective.

But more importantly, I think the — the innovation — innovative products we brought to market continue to — to resonate as you’ve witnessed now for the — for the third quarter for — for all of our divisions, most particularly, you know, the opportunity for distraction would certainly be greatest in gaming. And the team has done a great job. And, you know, we like to say nothing keeps people focused on operations better than having success. And — and we’ve had — we’ve had really — really good success. On the strategic process, you know, as we mentioned in the past, just — just taking you back to kind of the origination of the process, right? It was — you know, it was not done because of a dissatisfaction with any one of the businesses.

In fact, you know, the company’s been at these businesses of lottery and gaming for many many years. And certainly, you know, over the last several years post-COVID, we’ve been really really excited about the performance of — of the teams, the products, and — and the markets. So, it was purely done from a perspective of being frustrated with — with the valuation we were receiving in the — in the public marketplace and thought it was a good opportunity from a position of strength and momentum to take a look at, you know, potential other alternatives to — to — to increase shareholder value. So, purely done from — from that — hat perspective. You know, as far as the market conditions go, you know, we’re clearly in a environment now later in 2023 of the expectation of a higher interest rate environment for a longer period of time. But, you know, when you think about the market from an economic perspective, in the first half of this year, there were significant concerns around a recession and a decline in — in the overall economy in the back half of 2023, which fortunately, for — for us and so many other businesses, has not occurred. And the businesses we operate in remain very very robust and high — you know, high personal demand for — for entertainment services, which is great for — for our business and certainly for — for our — our customers business.

So, we think, you know, there’s always a market for — for assets that are high quality. There’s — there’s not a lot of high-quality assets in the — in the marketplace. And the capital markets are open. So, in thinking about kind of our strategic alternatives, you know, the — the alternative of a transaction for gaming, we believe, is still — is still valid and still potentially available. And we’ll — you know, we’ll go through the process obviously in a very — we feel very strongly about the value of these businesses. We’ll — we’ll go through the process, and we’ll make a determination ultimately as to what we think is the best — the best alternative for — for our sole goal, which is to maximize shareholder value.

Barry Jonas — Truist Securities — Analyst

Great, that’s really helpful. Thank you, Vince.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chad Beynon of Macquarie. Your line is open.

Chad Beynon — Macquarie Group — Analyst

Morning. Nice quarter. Vince and Max, wanted to start with the guide — I guess the Q4 guide coming in at the the top end. It seems like the biggest component of that is the low single-digit growth for lottery that you’re expecting on a same-store basis in Q4.

That’s kind of where that was in Q3, but just wanted to kind of focus a little bit more on that given, you know, the ever-moving consumer. Have you seen any changes in North America or in Italian sales maybe throughout the third quarter? And then, if you’re willing to kind of talk about, you know, some near-term trends into the fourth quarter, has anything changed given that we’re all keeping an eye on — on that consumer? Thanks.

Vince Sadusky — Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, specific to — to lottery, you know, we saw amazing growth in the first half of the year both in North America and in Italy, our two largest markets by — by far. A lot of that was driven by instance, as well as a refreshing of the portfolio and the go-to-market strategy for — for lotto in Italy. We got into the third quarter, we had some pretty tough comps given jackpots in North America were significant several multi — more than $1 billion jackpots last year. Fortunately, in the third quarter, we had the same phenomena take place, so we were able to drive incremental growth there.

And in the fourth quarter, we had very significant jackpots again last year, multi-state jackpots. So, we don’t — we’re certainly not planning on that for — for — for — for this year. In the back half of the year, you know, we’ve seen, outside of the multi-state jackpots, a moderation in the growth for both scratch and — and lotto. But again, we anticipated that, normally, new product launches, new price points are, if — if we’ve done a good job with the product, it drives incremental sales. And a lot of that took place in the — in the first half of the year. And then, in the back half of the year, there was, you know, a lot of consumption of multi-state jackpot purchases in the — in the United States.

So, as far as, you know, what we’re seeing, the trends in October, same-store sales for Italy, we’re seeing up in the mid-single digits. You know, we think we’ll probably end up somewhere in the neighborhood of low single-digit growth in — in the — in the fourth quarter, which we think is in line with the longer-term outlook for Italy. And again, as we launch new products, we’ll have certain quarters will — where we expect significant increases and then those product play levels moderate. But I think, on the U.S. side, again the — the multi-state jackpot has driven significant amount of — of sales for — for the third quarter in particular. We’re not counting on that for the — for the fourth quarter.

And on the instant and draw side, we think that’ll be in line with — with — with the prior year given we had significant product launches in — in larger states, especially in the area of scratch in 2022. So, overall, we think the health of the business is very good. And I think the most important data point is, you know, our thesis that play levels would continue at these elevated levels that we experienced post-COVID. That continues to play out and be and be true.

Max Chiara — Chief Financial Officer

And to complement — to complement what Dave was alluding to, we also have a slew of product sales expected to execute in Q4 in various countries as we deliver terminals both in North America and in Europe. That will represent a significant increase to last year. That will obviously round up the performance from a top-line perspective.

Chad Beynon — Macquarie Group — Analyst

Thanks for that. And then, on the gaming margin — or the global gaming margin goal that you kind of laid out at the Investor Day and you’ve talked, you know, about the last several quarters, it seems like that’s kind of according to plan. In our recent meetings, you talked about, you know, half of that being supply chain and then half being just from scale. It looks like a lot of the supply chain and the scale kind of came in in this quarter. Max, can you just give us an update in terms of where you are, kind of what the upcoming opportunities are for — for further margin improvement to stay on the path for the 2025 margin goal? Thank you.

Max Chiara — Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, sure. So, obviously, the ’25 number is not in the bag as of yet, but we have a couple of good carryover impacts that will continue to progress along the way into next year as well. We anticipate supply chain to continue to be — to have a tailwind on our margins for 2024, as well as this the situation has fully normalized. And we expect now to be able to bring home those efficiency measures that we have put in place during the post-COVID years. Another area where we expect some tailwind is the improved mix of products in North America with the various launches of new cabinets, the Peak 49, and new games.

We expect that the strength of our product offensive to really be a tailwind on our margin progression going forward. And then, obviously, we continue to enjoy the benefit from the increased scale. Those are the items that we control. Items that we have less of a control are more related to the geopolitical situations and the macroeconomic issues around the globe. And obviously, we have to watch them carefully.

But definitely, those markets, the international markets, in general, are still running behind the pre-COVID period. And so, as the market — the individual market stabilized, we expect to be able to have improved progression in those individual markets as well. That would round up our performance on — on a margin journey trajectory.

Chad Beynon — Macquarie Group — Analyst

Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Stantial of Stifel. Your line is open.

Jeff Stantial — Stifel Financial Corp. — Analyst

Hey, great, thanks. Good morning. Vince, Max, thanks for taking our questions. Starting off here, I want to follow up on one of Barry’s questions earlier on the upcoming lotto renewal.

You know, obviously, you’re coming at it this time around from a position of financial strength, just given where the balance sheet is. But you know, I guess my question is, are there other reasons, I guess, you know, besides financial that you might look to incorporate a minority partner again this time around?

Vince Sadusky — Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I would say the partnership — the consortium that we put together last time has gone fine. I think it’s benefited to serve the intended purpose and benefited all parties to have a very strong offering. We obviously can’t comment on the — you know, on the development of that for this next lotto tender, but as we’ve pointed out before, the company’s — certainly, its capital structure is the best ever. It’s got the lowest leverage level ever. So, the company has a lot of flexibility to be able to think about and determine the best — the best pathway forward.

And as I said, it’s hard to really comment beyond that at this point.

Jeff Stantial — Stifel Financial Corp. — Analyst

OK, great. That’s helpful. Thanks. And turning to the — to the gaming business, your replacement sales in North America were well ahead of kind of where we were thinking about things, up more than a thousand units quarter on quarter.

You know, I was just hoping you could sort of buck it out some of the sequential growth drivers here. What I mean by that specifically is how much of this sequential growth was driven by VLPs versus poker versus steppers, video, etc. Just, you know, any color there to help kind of frame this out would be appreciated. Thanks.

Vince Sadusky — Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I guess — you know, it’s interesting. From quarter to quarter, there is the demand for our machines changes. And it’s — it’s really, I think, a positive for IGT that we are now in a position where we are very competitive and market leading, in fact, in several game categories. So, I think one of the really cool things the team did at G2E, for example, was, you know, we were the only ones to — to set up a high-limit room, right? And so, all casinos aspire to have a high-limit room as it’s normally the — you know, the highest yielding per capita by far and a big profit center.

In fact, a lot of regional casinos don’t have a high-limit room because it just doesn’t do all that well. But it’s usually the premium casinos that have it. Anyway, we normally over-index in the high-limit room. And we were able to utilize that high-limit room concept at G2E to visually show that you could outfit the entire room, from mechanical stepper to video poker to core games, to MLP games, to WAP games, with all of the latest — new high-performing titles by IGT.

I think it was very effective visualization. So, for example, in this quarter, Max had mentioned one of the reasons that our ASP was a little bit lower than we expected was because we actually sold a lot of our new video poker cabinets into the marketplace. Our — we mentioned our DiamondRS cabinet, for example. You know, that cabinet we introduced several quarters ago. It took a little while to get some momentum for that cabinet. But once operators got a chance to see it, to understand it, to build in replacements for mechanical steppers, which don’t happen all — that often, they’re long-lived machines that players really enjoy and oftentimes don’t want to see replaced, you know, we ended up having very significant ship share. I think I’d mentioned we estimate somewhere around 40% of the replacement market for — for — for separate cabinets, where — where our DiamondRS, along with really good consistent deliveries of our MLP games and WAP games, etc.

So, it’s, you know — rather than kind of comment specifically on the quarter, you know , that experience for the third quarter was different from the second quarter, where a lot of MLP games really kind of drove a lot of our production capacity and — and deliveries, along with — with core games as well. So, it definitely fluctuates from quarter to quarter. I think the takeaway is we’re competitive in all these game categories. And when you add up all the numbers, you know, we had terrific yields, we had terrific ship share, and we had our fifth quarter in a row of increasing installed base that was — that was really significant and really really nice. So, that’s the way we look at it. When we look at our overall KPIs, we’re really pleased with the direction.

And, you know, fourth-quarter funnel looks — you know, looks–looks good. We have a lot of visibility going way out to the future. As you all know, that’s the nature of the business, but — but fourth quarter looks — looks like demand is — remains strong for us.

Jeff Stantial — Stifel Financial Corp. — Analyst

Great, that’s really helpful color. Thanks again and congrats on a strong quarter.

Operator

[Operator instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Ehra Macias of Jefferies. Your line is open.

Jim Hurley — Senior Vice President, Investor Relations

I think it’s David Katz. I think we may have just logged in that way.

David Katz — Jefferies — Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask, you know, first about just lottery volatility and jackpot volatility. I recall, a number of years ago, you know, that that’s become more of a thing. Can you help us just understand the degree to which lotteries, you know, year to date, have had some one-time volatility volatility? And then, I have a quick follow-up.

Max Chiara — Chief Financial Officer

Yes. So, hi, David, this is Max speaking. So — and I guess in trying to interpolate your questions, is volatility mostly have to do with jackpots in North America, I guess?

David Katz — Jefferies — Analyst

Mm hmm. Yeah.

Max Chiara — Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, so we have — we have seen this steady interest in jackpot — in jackpot games for the better part of last year. That is likely attributable to the advertised jackpot that exceeded the $1 billion mark six times in the last 18 months. Obviously, advertised jackpot levels are helped by the rising interest rate environment as the advertised jackpot levels are based on a 30-year annuity stream. That doesn’t mean by default that the same level of underlying sales today to advertise a 1 billion jackpot is the same as it did a few years ago when interest rates were lower. So, for example, at comparable jackpot levels above $500 million, both Powerball and Mega Millions’ underlying sales have decreased over time. In 2022, both games did generate over $600 million in sales for a 1 billion-plus jackpot.

Sales are now less than 300 million for similar jackpots. Another way to understand this is with the lump sum payout. Today, the lump sum payout is less than half of the advertised jackpot and is down from over 60% in 2016 before the significant rise in interest rates. And so, the last comment I’d like to make is, obviously, IGT remunerated as a percentage of lottery ticket sales, not the advertised jackpot size. So, despite the high volatility in the advertised jackpot, our — our remuneration is based on the — on the lottery sales — the underlying lottery sales that obviously goes up and down but with a lower volatility than the advertised jackpot.

David Katz — Jefferies — Analyst

Very helpful. And if you could just give us a quick comment also on your outlook for slot sales. We obviously are having, you know, periodic debates and active debates about slot sales being a bit elevated in North America this year, and what the outlook for next year could be like, please.

Vince Sadusky — Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I think Eilers had estimated this year’s slot sales overall, North America to be up a couple of percentage points. I think they’re currently estimating next year up a little bit less than — than that. For us, we’ve certainly outpaced that as a result of good games and in growing share. And I think that’s — that’s really — really key for us.

And I think one of the other key is — is the increase in the — the install base. So, having a greater number of machines out on a lease basis with yields holding up, you know, close to to record levels, I think, is — is really a positive. You know, the economy, obviously, everyone has their own estimates as to what’s going to happen to the consumer going forward, but all we know is that, you know, slot GGR levels remain good, customer sentiment remains good. And, you know, our challenges have really — what we’ve seen is really outside of the U.S. We continue to do a great job in Latin America.

Our install base has increased significantly there, demand is really good. But, you know, you’ve got some country concerns with — with the market like Argentina. EMEA is another marketplace where there’s challenges. Western Europe, we’ve done really well. That market is back to pre-COVID levels, but Eastern Europe continues to have significant issues.

Geopolitical is probably the driver of that. But, you know, overall, that’s kind of I think what the industry is saying and then what — I think what we’re seeing.

David Katz — Jefferies — Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

And your last question comes from the line of Joe Stauff of SIG. Your line is open.

Joe Stauff — Susquehanna International Group — Analyst

Thank you. Good morning, Vince. Good morning, Max. I had two questions if I could.

One, you know, the gaming competitive landscape naturally is so fragmented. It’s maybe tough for me, not others, to kind of put the puzzle together. And I was wondering, you know, coming from G2E, it seems as though, in terms of your competition against specifically within gaming, some of the small players are — are much softer. And I’m wondering if that’s what you see in terms of the — the competitive landscape and whatever you can share with us, versus obviously you doing strong just based on results and obviously maybe your two bigger competitors, so that’s number one. And then, number two, Max, you had mentioned on the supply chain that it had normalized. And I was wondering if you could just kind of remind us of first quarter, second quarter, just sort of the cadence of where the supply chain was in terms of being normal and/or tighter relative to our, you know, sort of expecting the benefit in those margins as — as we sort of adjust your models going forward.

Vince Sadusky — Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I’ll answer the first question. I’ll let Max take the — take the supply chain question. So, yeah, I think it’s a great observation. I felt the same way.

You know, I get to G2E a day early to meet with the teams and the setup and, you know, walk the floor quietly, and it’s just remarkable the number of small players that are out there still. A lot of those companies are private. You don’t know what their financials look like. Oftentimes, they’ve got a niche that’s made it a business but not a significant business.

And, you know, to be honest, being in this business for decades now, it’s very hard to envision consistency of game performance over a long period of time when you don’t have a large infrastructure and a very significant R&D investment on an ongoing basis, as the larger companies such as ourselves have. That’s not to say that they haven’t had and that they won’t have individual game successes from time to time. But when you think about, you know, the opportunity to exploit a great game concept internationally, that’s a unique area for just a handful of us. A lot of the smaller players design games for specific markets, let’s say it’s Latin America or Eastern Europe or North America, and don’t even have operations in other parts of the world.

And they aspire to that, but they’ve been aspiring to that for — for a long period of time. So, I do think it’s — it’s hard to — to really generate any significant scale consistently without — without having this big — this large R&D investment. And I think, you know, something that probably similarly goes for the iCasino, the PlayDigital business as well, there’s a lot of competitors on that front because the barriers to entry are, of course, lower. However, I think we’re seeing over time that the same phenomena is playing out, that if you’re a significant operator in that space, you’ve got scale, you’ve got, you know, huge tech teams, game development teams, and your chances for success are greater. Plus there’s the — the customer interaction element of it as well, right? So, you know, as casinos consolidate under — you know, under — under holding companies, you know, it’s — it takes time to evaluate and listen to kind of one — one-off game developers, be it on the iCasino side or on the — certainly on the land-based side. And then, there’s the approval process and all of that. So, I just think that there’s — you know, scale is really helpful and really matters especially in an industry that requires a lot of — a lot of R&D to be successful.

Joe Stauff — Susquehanna International Group — Analyst

Thanks, Vince.

Max Chiara — Chief Financial Officer

Very good. Joe — and, Joe, in terms of the supply chain dynamics, just to keep it very simple, on the gaming side, the supply chain is easing. Last year, we — in the second half of last year, we were running at about 20 million a quarter. We are less than half right now, but we’re still having some supply chain costs in the system — baked into the system, and we have had them since Q1 of this year.

So, again, you see now the same benefit coming to fruition in Q3 and — and Q4, is supposed to continue next year because of that easing process, getting to the final stage. And now, companies are able to get back in the — in the pre-COVID period where we were looking for opportunities to really find efficiencies in the supply chain organization. And so, we expect that benefit to continue into 2024 as well. That’s what we — why we have called it a tailwind in our margin progression going forward.

Joe Stauff — Susquehanna International Group — Analyst

I see. That makes sense. And is it fair to say that, you know, you would — you would expect it maybe to, say, you know, the level of spending that you’re doing now, call it 10 million a quarter, as you suggested, extra — extra spending that, you know, maybe that ticks down during the course of ’24.

Max Chiara — Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, it may not be a regular takedown or constant takedown. It may be a little bit less early on in the year and more toward the second half of the year. But yes, fundamentally that’s what we expect to happen.

Joe Stauff — Susquehanna International Group — Analyst

Great. Thanks, Max. Thanks, Vince.

Vince Sadusky — Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I’ll now turn the conference back to the CEO, Vince Sadusky, for closing remarks.

Vince Sadusky — Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, well, thank you all for — for joining us today. Our Q3 and our year-to-date revenue and profit results highlight the good momentum we have across each one of our business segments. It’s a clear indication that our focus on driving growth, innovation, and optimizing our processes and scale is paying off. We’re on a solid path to delivering on our full-year commitments and are on track with our 2025 targets as we remain focused on unlocking the intrinsic value of IGT’s market-leading businesses. We appreciate your interest in IGT, and we look forward to meeting with many of you in the coming weeks.

And have a great day.

Operator

[Operator signoff]

Duration: 0 minutes

Call participants:

Jim Hurley — Senior Vice President, Investor Relations

Vince Sadusky — Chief Executive Officer

Max Chiara — Chief Financial Officer

Barry Jonas — Truist Securities — Analyst

Chad Beynon — Macquarie Group — Analyst

Jeff Stantial — Stifel Financial Corp. — Analyst

David Katz — Jefferies — Analyst

Joe Stauff — Susquehanna International Group — Analyst

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