How the EU hopes to strong-arm Orbán into supporting Ukraine

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Good morning. A warning as EU leaders confront for a summit in Brussels today: failure to agree financial and political preserve for Ukraine during the meetings would send a dangerous signal of “division” to the US, Kyiv’s other key ally, Sweden’s prime minister told the Financial Times.

Today, I explain how the EU’s optimists hope to strike a deal on preserve to Ukraine with an intransigent Viktor Orbán at the summit. And our COP correspondent sums up Europe’s stance on the conference’s outcome.

Battle plans

As EU leaders limber up for a marathon summit beset by uncertainty and division, those who hope for an unlikely compromise deal can at least take heart from one thing: the believers have a scheme.

Context: The 27 leaders are tasked with deciding how much they will top up the EU’s shared budget, including a €50bn financing package for Ukraine, and agreeing to open accession negotiations with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. They will achieve this morning with no agreement, and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán vowing to block the Ukraine-related elements.

Green lights are possible for all three, the most optimistic EU officials and national diplomats say, if the sequencing is done right.

That means first striking a deal among 26 states — all minus Hungary — on the budget top-up and Ukraine cash, which are bundled together.

People involved in the negotiations say an agreement on that is possible, and that a new proposal circulated this morning has a chance of being adopted. It asks for less than €22.5bn in fresh cash — far lower than the €66bn initially requested months of negotiations ago.

If that can be agreed early today, say by early afternoon, then the 26 can turn to Orbán as a united bloc. If they can’t, then the summit could descend into a mess of multiple, simultaneous arguments that continually reopen debates.

One advantage of bundling the budget top-up with the Ukraine money is that Orbán (or any other leader) knows blocking Kyiv’s cash will also block extra cash for areas they are keen on, such as immigration.

On Ukraine’s bid to open EU accession talks, the possible agreement looks simpler, if something of a fudge. Most are shooting for a two-step solution with an agreement to start the process (what Ukraine wants), but including conditions that must be met before a review in March that could derail the process (what Orbán wants).

Orbán offered some succour to optimists last night, saying he was against “Ukraine’s swift EU entry”, after months of saying he was against it altogether. Perhaps the €10.2bn in EU funds his government got access to yesterday evening softened him up after all.

Most note that the longest-serving leader around the summit table knows how to play the game of sabre-rattling and veto-threatening, but also when to cut a deal.

“It’s not about finding a solution for Hungary,” said one EU diplomat, wearily. “But finding a solution for Ukraine.”

Chart du jour: Prediction problems

Ireland’s economic woes have dragged down forecasts for the entire eurozone, even though the country accounts for only 4 per cent of its gross domestic product.

Beginning of the end

The UN’s annual COP climate conference yesterday concluded with the world’s first commitment to “transition away” from fossil fuels.

But it was also a compromise deal that tried to gloss over differences between oil exporters, small island nations, big economies and determined EU ministers, writes Alice Hancock.

Context: EU negotiators were among the most ambitious at COP28, which this year took place amid the oil-funded splendour of the United Arab Emirates. The summit was seen as a crucial moment to take stock, eight years after the 2015 Paris agreement on efforts to limit global warming to 1.5C.

Kai Mykkänen, Finland’s environment minister, was among the EU representatives suffering from a lack of sleep as they hurried among the pavilions to persuade other countries to back a phase out of fossil fuels.

Even though the final document, produced yesterday morning after a negotiation all-nighter, did not include the words “phase out”, Mykkänen said that he was “quite happy” with the outcome.

An earlier draft had been too much in favour of Opec oil producing countries, with lax language on what countries should do to impede global warming from exceeding 1.5C, officials said. But it galvanised EU negotiators and its allies to press the COP28 presidency to raise the bar.

“We managed to have a wide enough front including major players from all continents pushing very hard, especially Monday and Tuesday night”, Mykkänen said.

“In the end the only thing that matters here is not about how we feel, whether we sleep, [but] what we managed to deliver . . . we might now accomplish the beginning of the end of fossil fuels,” said the EU’s climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra.

What to watch today

1. EU leaders’ summit begins.

2. Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg meets Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico.

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