George Galloway’s emphatic win in the Rochdale by-election demonstrates the anger felt by many Muslims over Labour’s position on Israel but also points to a deepening frustration with Britain’s political establishment ahead of this year’s general election.
Galloway, in his trademark black fedora, warned that his victory in the town near Manchester would mark a “shifting of the tectonic plates in scores of parliamentary constituencies” where Muslims and many other citizens were “bitterly angry” over Israel’s bombardment of the Gaza strip. “This is going to spark a movement,” he declared with his usual bombast.
This is the third time that Galloway, a charismatic orator who was kicked out of Labour in 2003 over his criticism of the Iraq war, has humiliated his former party by seizing seats it previously held.
His victory is a sign that the Israel Gaza conflict is casting a shadow over UK politics, especially for the opposition Labour party.
Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, declared his support for Israel in the wake of Hamas’s attacks on October 7 and has only gradually shifted to a more critical stance on the Netanyahu government as the country’s military has bombarded Gaza. More than 30,000 people have been killed according to Palestinian health officials
Many Labour MPs have faced censure in recent months for the party’s position on the issue, with some receiving death threats. Some fear that anger over Gaza could erode their majorities and benefit of the Conservative party.
A rash of independent pro-Palestinian candidates have already come forward in some urban seats with large Muslim populations to stand in the general election expected this autumn.
“I think Labour should take this incredibly seriously,” said John McTernan, a former Downing Street adviser during Tony Blair’s Labour government.
“There aren’t 100 George Galloways, there aren’t even three, five, six. The issue, though, is this was a judgment in some ways on last week’s parliament, the lack of the ability of the UK parliament to come to a position that most people in Britain believe, that there should be an immediate ceasefire . . . an end to the killings in Gaza. This is an expression of that,” he told the BBC.
Galloway’s victory came at the end of a turbulent month in British politics, with Conservative leaders giving the impression they had lost control of the country and a chaotic debate over Israel in the House of Commons.
Lee Anderson, former Tory deputy chair, was suspended from the party after he claimed that Islamists had taken control of London and the capital’s mayor, Sadiq Khan.
Prime minister Rishi Sunak dismayed some Tory MPs on Wednesday when he claimed that there was a “growing consensus that mob rule is replacing democratic rule”, referring to protests and intimidation of MPs.
Former home secretary Suella Braverman, reinforced his message. “The truth is that the Islamists, the extremists, and the antisemites are in charge now,” she said.
Meanwhile, parliament descended in to chaos last week when Commons speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle binned convention to allow a series of votes intended to allow MPs to express their views on the Gaza conflict. Hoyle said he had been motivated by fears about members’ security.
Galloway won 12,335 votes in Rochdale and David Tully, a respected local businessman, picked up 6,638. By contrast the Lib Dems only got 2,164 votes, the Tories 3,731 and Reform UK just 1,968.
Galloway’s victory left Labour licking self-inflicted wounds. Local party members had chosen a candidate, Azhar Ali, who was later caught expressing a conspiracy theory that the Israeli government allowed the October massacres to occur to give it a pretext for a military operation in Gaza.
Starmer removed Labour’s support from Ali, but it was too late to remove the party’s logo appearing with his name on the ballot paper.
“It’s unprecedented for a leader to withdraw and not field a candidate in a by-election in this way but it was the right thing to do because of those comments,” said Ellie Reeves, deputy national campaign co-ordinator. “There is zero tolerance for antisemitism or Islamophobia or any other form of racism.”
Analysts have downplayed the significance of Galloway’s win for Labour’s prospects in the general election. Chris Hopkins, political research director for pollster Savanta, said his company’s polling showed Labour still holding about 62 per cent of the national Muslim vote.
“Realistically, Galloway is a bit of a maverick, a one-off, and has taken huge advantage of a non-campaign from the established parties in Rochdale,” he said.
But the strong showing for independent candidates in Rochdale highlights a broader mistrust of Westminster.
Official data released on Friday showed that public trust in political parties fell sharply to the lowest of any institution in 2023.
Galloway’s imminent arrival in the House of Commons and promise to punish Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer for allegedly being too soft on Israel over the Gaza conflict is also likely to heighten political tensions in parliament
Sunak this week announced a £31mn package to improve security around MPs and other local politicians over fears of increased threats to MPs in a general election year, with the Gaza conflict providing the backdrop to worsening community tensions.
Ben Shimshon, chief executive of Thinks Insight & Strategy, a research firm, said his company’s polling showed that the public was now more pessimistic about Britain’s prospects than it had been for years.
“We see an increasing belief that politics as usual lacks the answers,” he said. “For the vast majority of issues, when asked which of the two main parties are most likely to solve the issues we face, more people say ‘neither’ or ‘don’t know’ than choose either of the parties.”
“When the established options aren’t seen to offer these things, it’s no surprise voters take opportunities like by-elections to express their frustration.”
