I enjoyed reading the Lex note on obesity drugs (“Obesity drugs: weighty matter”, January 9). One line jumped out: “Pharma’s first movers can often prove resilient . . . Merck’s blockbuster Keytruda managed this in cancer therapy.”
Keytruda was technically the second mover, receiving approval in September 2014, when Opdivo was approved in July 2014. Opdivo actually outperformed Keytruda in product sales from 2014 to 2017, at which point Merck’s lifecycle efforts paid off, and it has since been far more successful. In working with pharma/biotech clients who are preparing to launch drugs, I have always made clear first mover isn’t an overwhelming advantage.
A 2014 McKinsey study found: “Overall, first-to-market players have a 6 per cent market share advantage over later entrants, but they achieve market share leadership in less than 50 per cent of the drug classes we evaluated.
“Despite these circumstances, it is important to note that late movers win in more than 50 per cent of the drug classes we evaluated. And we find that the odds are greatly improved for late entrants when they are second entrants to the market, fast followers (launched within the same year or one year after the first entrant), and marketed by a large pharma company.”
Case studies include multiple examples of second mover and even third mover advantage, eg Zantac, Lipitor, Biogen’s Aduhelm drug versus other Alzheimer monoclonal antibodies (MABs).
Simon Vanstone
Independent Lifescience Consultant, London E14, UK
