It easy to assume (“Mortality: Covid takes toll on life expectancy”, Report, January 12) that Covid-19 is over and that its effect will “wash out” of the life expectancy results. The World Health Organization declared the Covid pandemic to be over on May 5, 2023. The UK Office for National Statistics estimates there are still excess deaths.
There were 44,255 more deaths in the UK in 2022 than would have been predicted from the five years pre-Covid. That is a 7.2 per cent excess. The comparable number for the first half of 2023 is 8.6 per cent, when Covid was ending. The causes of these continuing excesses could be many.
There are still people who after a long fight lose the battle against Covid itself. Early detection of chronic disease may have failed during Covid. The NHS is still under considerable pressure. Even if patients make it to hospital the pressure may result in poorer care. All have been implicated. The result is probably some combination although the data is far from definitive.
According to the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities, excess deaths are not now concentrated where Covid hit the hardest. Instead, the peaks are in the young (20-24) and middle-aged (45-64). Unsurprisingly respiratory diseases were 44 per cent above the pre-Covid trend for the middle-aged. Surprisingly, heart diseases of all kinds show the same level of abnormal increases. Even renal diseases and diabetes are higher. Far more people died at home rather than hospital compared with before Covid.
All of the UK data suggests that many of the existing theories only offer partial answers. We could blame the funding of our NHS, but this is not only a UK problem. Many European countries are still showing excess deaths above pre-Covid levels.
There are huge variations across countries. In October 2023, seven EU countries reported no excess deaths. Twenty countries did. The highest rate was in Finland at 19.8 per cent. Ireland was at 17.8 per cent and the Netherlands at 15.1 per cent. These numbers are nowhere near the peaks within the Covid pandemic. However, they are high. The UK does reasonably well by comparison. It is much too soon to determine whether there will be long-term effects on life expectancy.
John Bateson
Honorary Visiting Professor, Bayes Business School, Wendover, Buckinghamshire, UK
