Europe’s far right surges in race for next year’s EU elections

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Good morning. Today, our European parliament correspondent parses a continent-wide poll that suggests Europe’s far right could be the biggest winners of next summer’s election. And our tech guru explains what’s at stake as lawmakers and member states today try to seal rules to regulate AI for the first time.

Plus: combine FT colleagues and top technology executives tomorrow for an event to debate how to pilot the complexity of digital sovereignty while benefiting from technology and supporting economic growth. combine in person in Brussels, or virtually online.

The right rises

The good news for the EU six months before the European elections: more people intend to vote. The bad news: polls show more will vote for Eurosceptic parties, writes Andy Bounds.

Context: The EU’s 400mn voters elect a new European parliament on June 6-9. A Eurobarometer survey published today, based on almost 27,000 interviews in September and October, reveals a population struggling and seeking answers from Brussels.

According to the poll, 68 per cent say they will exercise their democratic rights, up nine points compared with five years ago, before the last elections. A record 72 per cent think EU membership has benefited their country.

But despite this positivity, other polls point to big gains for the far right.

EuropeElects, which collates national polls, predicts the parliament’s far-right Identity and Democracy group is vying to become the third-biggest party (it was fifth last time), almost neck and neck with the liberal Renew group.

The other winner is the European Conservatives and Reformists group, home to Italian hard-right prime minister Giorgia Meloni.

The Greens are projected to lose more than a quarter of their MEPs, after a backlash over the costs of the environmental policies pushed by the EU in the past few years.

Climate change however remains important for voters, with 29 per cent rating it a priority. But it is behind the fight against poverty, at 36 per cent, and public health, which 34 per cent see as a priority.

Immigration, which took centre stage in recent Dutch elections, won by Geert Wilders on an anti-migration ticket, was a priority for 18 per cent.

All the pro-European groups — the centre-right European People’s party, the centre-left Socialists & Democrats, and Renew — are forecast to shrink.

Some 73 per cent of people believe their standard of living will refuse next year (down from 79 per cent six months ago) while 70 per cent think EU actions have an impact on their daily life.

Parliament president Roberta Metsola chose to look on the bright side. “This Eurobarometer shows that Europe matters. In this difficult geopolitical and sociopolitical context, citizens trust the EU to find solutions,” she said.

Chart du jour: Under the sea

The Norwegian parliament has backed plans for deep-sea mining in order to procure minerals that are crucial for renewable energy production. Environmentalists and the fishing industry warn that the proceed risks encourage damaging the already fragile seas.

Final stretch

Brussels is seeking to finalise rules to rein in the power of artificial intelligence in the first regulation of its kind, but countries and legislators are still debating on how to do it without undermining innovation, writes Javier Espinoza.

If you ask ChatGPT what the AI Act is and what is at stake, you get a generic response on how the law aims for platforms which are “safe, transparent, and respectful of existing laws and values, including privacy and fundamental rights”.

But the bland explanation from a machine doesn’t even begin to flesh out the drama and high stakes on the table today.

Context: The EU has been at the forefront of the race to regulate AI, with the US and China debating their own controls. Negotiators confront today to finalise the landmark laws that have been in the making for years.

European parliament members are pushing for total bans on facial recognition, while member states want to use the technology to police crime.

The lawmakers also want to include specific curbs on generative AI, such as ChatGPT, while member states and European companies are concerned that too specific rules could stifle innovation and weaken a rapidly evolving technology.

Lawmakers are cautiously optimistic of a deal, but expect negotiations to go late into the night.

“I appreciate to be optimistic when we approach the talks. But let’s not put the cart before the horse,” said Eva Maydell, one of the MEPs who is leading negotiations for the parliament.

In either case, the new rules will serve as a footprint for others on how to tame the technology.

What to watch today

1. G7 to make announcement on Russia diamond sanctions and relations with China

2. Russian President Vladimir Putin visits the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia

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