Posted
January 23, 2024 at 7:45 AM EST
Today could be one of the last chances for a truly competitive race for the Republican nomination.
Although it is only the second primary in a months-long nominating process, Nikki Haley is now the only major candidate left to challenge former President Donald Trump.
“It’s now one fella and one lady left,” Haley said Sunday, telling her supporters that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis had dropped out.
A couple of days earlier, at Grill 603 in Milford, N.H., the former South Carolina governor delivered her now-familiar pitch that she is the most electable Republican in the race.
“If you look, there was a poll that came out today: Trump is down by 7 points,” she said, pausing long enough for the crowd to begin to clap. But she had to clarify: “Well, this is against Joe Biden, by the way. Trump is down by 7 points. And I beat Biden.”
It’s not clear which poll she was referring to, though she was talking about a hypothetical general election result and not the primary. There aren’t any public polls showing her ahead of Trump in New Hampshire.
As she closes out her campaign in New Hampshire, Haley is imploring voters to give her a chance to prevent a Biden-Trump rematch that few in America seem to want.
“Do you want to be scared in November or not?” she asked in a call and response near the end of her stump speech. “Do you want your kids to be proud in November or not? Then let’s do it.”
Even if winning New Hampshire weren’t a reach, Ben Ginsberg, a retired Republican attorney who is a leading expert on the nominating process, says the deck is stacked against her.
“This race is effectively over,” he explained of the delegate math. “I mean, even if Nikki Haley can win in New Hampshire, she’ll still have a real uphill slog. And she’ll have to win, absolutely have to win her home state of South Carolina at the end of February.”
And right now she’s trailing badly in polls of South Carolina voters.
Ginsberg says no Republican candidate has won the nomination without their home state. But Haley insists she knows how to win in South Carolina and will have plenty of time to build up momentum. Trump is angling to knock her out before she ever gets that chance. He’s already saying it’s time to unify the Republican Party — behind him, of course.
And watch more from NPR’s Sarah McCammon, who’s talking to voters in New Hampshire:
