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The consumer price index report for February will be closely watched next week. Economists expect headline CPI to rise 0.4% month-over-month for February and be up 0.3% once the food and energy categories are stripped out. Inflation is expected to show a 3.1% year-over-year increase for the month. Other economic reports that are due to be released include the producer price index report, the retail sales report, and the latest reading from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment. After adding it all up, investors may walk away with new interest rate expectations. Currently, Goldman Sachs thinks the first rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Canada will be in June. However, there is less clarity around the forecast with central bankers reluctant to provide guidance too far in advance. Sizing up the FOMC tea leaves, Seeking Alpha Investing Group Leader Lawrence Fuller expects to see softer payroll data and a continuation of the disinflationary trend that would then allow the Federal Reserve to reduce rates sooner, with the economy on track for a soft landing.
The earnings calendar for the week ahead is headlined by Oracle (ORCL) (analysis) and consumer-facing companies such as Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR), Kohl’s (KSS), and Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS). Meanwhile, the conference calendar is very active during the week, including the Deutsche Bank Media, Internet & Telecom Conference and Barclays 26th Annual Global Healthcare Conference. Investors will also have their eyes on the Starbucks’ (SBUX) annual meeting of shareholders. In the healthcare sector, the FDA action date arrives for Madrigal Pharmaceuticals’ (MDGL) Resmetirom, which has the potential to become the first and only medicine approved for NASH liver disease. Finally, the stock market could see some extra volatility at the very end of the week with triple witching day on March 15 featuring the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options contracts.
Earnings spotlight: Monday, March 11 – Oracle (ORCL), Casey’s General Stores (CASY), and Asana (ASAN). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings spotlight: Tuesday, March 12 – On Holding (ONON), Kohl’s (KSS), and International Game Technology (IGT). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings spotlight: Wednesday, March 13 – Dollar Tree (DLTR), Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), and Lennar (LEN). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings spotlight: Thursday, March 14 – Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), Dollar General (DG), Adobe (ADBE), Blink Charging (BLNK), and Ulta Beauty (ULTA). See the full earnings calendar.
Earnings spotlight: Friday, March 15 – Jabil (JBL). See the full earnings calendar.
Volatility watch: Options trading volume is elevated on Enviva (EVA) and BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI). The list of highly-shorted stocks heading into the new week includes Bowlero (BOWL) and Celsius Holdings (CELH). The most overbought stocks per their 14-day Relative Strength Index include Envoy Medical (COCH), Emcor (EME), and Vistra (VST). The most oversold stocks per their 14-day Relative Strength Index include Pine Cliff Energy (OTCQX:PIFYF), Power & Digital Infrastructure Acquisition II (XPDB), and Inari Medical (NARI).
IPO watch: Massimo Group (MAMO) is expected to start trading next week after issuing 1.3M shares for its IPO in an expected price range of $4.00 to $5.00 per share. The company makes a variety of off-road vehicles, on-road vehicles, and boats. Marine robotics technology firm RanMarine Technology B.V. (RMRN) and logistics service provider Armlogi (BTOC) are also on watch to start trading. Behind the scenes, the Reddit (RDDT) IPO is also inching closer. The company is expected to price its IPO between $31 and $34 per share, with a target to raise up to $6.5B. Also of interest, IPO lockup periods expire for blocks of shares of Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM), and Neumora Therapeutics (NASDAQ:NMRA).
Investor events: AT&T (T), eBay (EBAY), fuboTV (FUBO), Fox Corporation (FOXA), and Warner Music (WMG) are some of the notable companies due to present at the Deutsche Bank Media, Internet & Telecom Conference. The long list of companies presenting at the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference includes Delta Air Lines (DAL), Honeywell (HON), and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP). Meanwhile, the healthcare sector will be on watch with both the Barclays 26th Annual Global Healthcare Conference and Leerink Partners Global BioPharma Conference running during the week. Other notable investor events include Cisco Systems’ (CSCO) tech talk and the Starbucks Corporation’s (SBUX) annual shareholder meeting.
Dollar Tree earnings preview: Dollar Tree (DLTR) will report Q4 earnings on March 13. The discounter is expected to report revenue of $8.67B, EPS of $2.65, and EBITDA of $1.01B. Same-store sales are expected to be up 2.7% during the quarter, with a 5.4% gain for Dollar Tree stores making up for a 0.7% decline for the Family Dollar chain. There were some indications that momentum picked up at the end of the quarter for the Dollar Tree banner. Virginia-based Dollar Tree is expected to report an inventory level up 8% from a year ago. In terms of guidance, UBS thinks the bar is for a FY24 guide of at least $7.00. The firm thinks a bullish update on the Family Dollar optimization review is likely needed to represent a positive catalyst for the stock. Options trading on Dollar Tree implies an 8% swing in share price after the report is dropped. The stocks that correlate the tightest to Dollar Tree after its earnings report is released are Dollar General (DG), Target (TGT), and Ross Stores (ROST).
Stock spinoff watch: The exchange offer for shares of Atmus Filtration (ATMU) from Cummins (NYSE:CMI) will become effective on March 13. Through the exchange offer, Cummins shareholders will have the option to exchange all, some or none of their shares of Cummins stock for shares of Atmus. “This separation will create value for both Cummins and Atmus, allowing Cummins to continue its focus on key strategic initiatives and innovating in both core and new technologies, while allowing the filtration business the ability to operate and grow with flexibility,” previewed Cummins Chair and CEO Jennifer Rumsey. Elsewhere, the Palasino gambling unit of Far East Consortium (OTCPK:FRTCF) is expected to start trading in Hong Kong next week after a spinoff transaction. The proposed spin-off is aimed at providing flexibility and a separate fund-raising platform for Central European casino and hotel operator Palasino Group in raising future funds from the capital markets to support its growth.
Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
