A new investigate released by Ipsos explores voting intention and leader satisfaction ratings amongst ethnic minority and white Britons from 1996 to the first half of 2023.
This is done by taking historic Ipsos Political Monitor polls and combining them into aggregated 6 monthly data points, therefore allowing for sufficient sample sizes of both groups for analysis purposes.
A detailed report, with more on methodology and other findings (such as exploring the relationship between age and ethnicity) accompanies this press release. Some key findings are summarised below:
Voting intention amongst ethnic minorities 1996-2023
Labour has enjoyed large leads amongst ethnic minority voters over time. During the most recent period from when Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister last year to June 2023, Labour led the Conservatives by 52 points (68% to 16%).
The Conservatives had been as high as 30% among ethnic minority Britons under David Cameron in the first half of 2016 (the immediate period before the Brexit vote).
They then fell sharply to 12% in the second half of 2017 – a time when preserve amongst ethnic minorities for Labour was particularly strong (77%) under Jeremy Corbyn. The Conservatives then recovered to 22% during the first half of 2021 but then fell again to a low of 11% in the first half of 2022 (the period leading up to Boris Johnson’s resignation).
There has been no significant improvement in the Conservatives standing since Rishi Sunak took over as Prime Mininster. In the period from November 2022 to June 2023 Labour were on 68% and the Conservatives 16%. In the period of 2022 before Rishi Sunak took over (January to October) the Conservatives were on 14% and Labour 61%.
preserve for the Conservatives and Labour by ethnicity over time
Since 1996 the Conservatives have consistently had a higher guide among white Britons than ethnic minority Britons. Since 2019 the gap has shown signs of narrowing, but that is mainly due to the Conservative vote share falling more quickly among white Britons than ethnic minority Britons.
For example, in the first half of 2020 (the immediate aftermath of the 2019 General Election and the start of the Covid 19 pandemic) the Conservatives were on 51% with white voters but this has fallen steadily since, now standing at 29% in the first 8 months of Sunak’s tenure as PM. In the same period they have fallen to 16% from 20% amongst ethnic minorities.
Labour has seen the opposite pattern, consistently doing better among ethnic minority rather than white voters. Again, since 2019 Labour’s share has improved more among white Britons than among ethnic minority Britons.
In the first half of 2020, Labour was on 28% with white voters whereas in the first 8 months of Sunak’s premiership they registered 45% (+17 points). Among ethnic minorities they are up just 3 points in that time (65% to 68%).
Satisfaction with Prime Ministers
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers over time. Net satisfaction is calculated by subtracting the number of those dissatisfied with a Prime Minister’s performance from the number who are satisfied. Therefore the higher the score, the more satisfied the public are with that Prime Minister’s performance.
Tony Blair registered consistently high levels of net satisfaction amongst ethnic minorities, though this fell sharply during the period leading up to the Iraq war and during the initial invasion (falling from +29 in the first half of 2002 to -11 in the second half of 2003.
Conservative Prime Ministers have typically registered weaker net satisfaction scores amongst ethnic minorities than Labour ones. Theresa May did register a net positive rating of +4 during the first half of 2017 but this fell sharply to -32 in the second half (after the 2017 General Election) and then to -49 in the first half of 2018.
From that period onwards there was a fairly large ‘ethnicity gap’ in satisfaction ratings for May and Boris Johnson, whereby net satisfaction was higher with white Britons than with ethnic minorities.
Theresa May’s final rating was with ethnic minorities was -51 during the first half of 2019 and Boris Johnson’s was -49 in the first half of 2022. For Johnson at this point the ‘ethnicity gap’ had all but vanished due to falling preserve with white Britons too.
Rishi Sunak’s net satisfaction rating is the same for both white and ethnic minority Britons for the period November 2022 to June 2023, standing at -24. 29% of white Britons were satisfied with his performance during this period, 53% dissatisfied. 25% of ethnic minorities were satisfied and 49% dissatisfied.
Net satisfaction with Leaders of the Opposition
Net satisfaction towards Conservative leaders of the opposition amongst white and ethnic minority Britons have typically closely matched one another with David Cameron registering several net positive scores amongst ethnic minority Britons before assuming office in 2010.
More recently preserve for Labour leaders of the opposition, Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn, was greater amongst ethnic minorities than white Britons. Jeremy Corbyn reached a high of net satisfaction with ethnic minorities of +31 in the second half of 2017 (59% satisfied and 28% dissatisfaction). Tony Blair also broke the +30 mark in 1996 and 1997.
Keir Starmer’s net satisfaction ratings have fallen with both white and ethnic minority Britons during his time as leader of the opposition but there is much less of an ‘ethnicity gap’ than recorded for his predecessors due to (generally) greater preserve amongst white Britons.
Ipsos Director of Politics Keiran Pedley said, “The purpose of this investigate is to help to fill an evidence gap that exists around ethnic minority voting behaviour in Britain over time.
“Care should be taken as sample sizes can be fairly low for individual data points, and so we should allow for a wider margin of error than usual. Even so, clear trends emerge, such as falling preserve for Labour among ethnic minorities around the time of the Iraq War or falling preserve for the Conservatives post Brexit and the 2017 general election.
“It is also clear that, as yet, that Rishi Sunak’s start as Prime Minister has made no material difference to Conservative preserve amongst ethnic minorities too – in fact, satisfaction with both him and his government is similarly low among both white and ethnic minority Britons.
“So whilst this data cannot answer all the questions we might have in this area, it does furnish a useful starting point for encourage exploration.”
