Business bosses hope for ‘decisive outcome’ in UK election

Good morning. We start today with the business reaction to Rishi Sunak’s announcement of a July 4 general election, as the UK prime minister suffered a bumpy first day on the campaign trail yesterday.

Business bosses say they want a clear victor to emerge from the election after years of political upheaval that wreaked havoc with policymaking and financial markets. They called for the next government to overhaul the planning system and upgrade infrastructure to kick-start the economy.

The Conservatives are trailing Labour by more than 20 points in opinion polls. But the opposition party’s lead could shrink, and a small House of Commons majority could make it difficult for party leader Sir Keir Starmer to resist demands from his leftwing MPs.

Aviva chief executive Amanda Blanc said the FTSE 100 insurer wanted a “decisive outcome” from the poll to support investor and business confidence. Here are the other industry leaders hoping the winning party obtains a clear mandate.

• Rocky start: Sunak faced a series of setbacks yesterday, as he was forced to concede he could not deliver flagship policies on asylum and smoking before July 4.

• Economic factors: Households will head to the polls against a backdrop of high mortgage rates, near-record rent inflation, a slowing jobs market and per-capita GDP that remains below pre-Covid levels.

• Election timeline: Here are some of the key moments to watch in the six weeks to election day.

• Inside Politics: In the latest edition, Stephen Bush explains how the Tories have managed to ambush themselves with the election. Sign up for the newsletter here.

And here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today and over the weekend:

• Economic data: Germany has first-quarter GDP and the UK reports April retail sales today. Insee publishes its monthly business survey for France, and the University of Michigan has its consumer sentiment survey for the US.

• Nato: The spring session of the military alliance’s parliamentary assembly opens in Sofia, Bulgaria, today.

• Europe: French President Emmanuel Macron will make a state visit to Germany on Sunday, while Lithuania holds its presidential election run-off.

• UK utilities: Energy regulator Ofgem will announce its update to the energy price cap this morning.

How well did you keep up with the news this week? Take our quiz.

Five more top stories

1. Exclusive: EU ministers plan to demand a crackdown on multinational companies that vary prices for the same product by country, costing consumers an estimated €14bn a year. Eight governments will present a paper today to the European Commission asking it to toughen single-market rules to stop effective bans on so-called parallel trading. Andy Bounds and Paola Tamma have more from Brussels.

2. Starwood Capital’s $10bn property fund is strictly limiting its investors’ ability to exit their investments as it preserves liquidity and avoids a fire sale of assets in what it believes are poor markets. Sreit told investors yesterday it would limit redemptions to 0.33 per cent of its net assets a month, compared with as much as 2 per cent, the amount it has allowed them to redeem since its inception in 2018. More details here.

3. Exclusive: Janet Yellen has said “substantial increases” in living costs are a “problem to a lot of people” as persistent inflation dents US President Joe Biden’s standing with voters ahead of November’s election. The Treasury secretary acknowledged prices for housing and everyday goods were still high despite recent strong wage growth. Read Yellen’s full interview with the Financial Times.

• US stocks: Wall Street reversed early gains yesterday, as signs of an uptick in business activity in the world’s biggest economy countered another set of blockbuster results from chipmaker Nvidia.

4. Hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand expects the price of copper to almost quadruple to $40,000 a tonne in the next few years, a conviction that has helped his $1.3bn fund recover from losses due to bullish oil bets last year. The metal’s price has risen almost 20 per cent this year, touching a record $11,000 a tonne this week. Here’s why Andurand believes it has much further to run.

5. The UK government’s target to cut a record backlog of 67,600 cases in the Crown Court is “no longer achievable”, the public spending watchdog has warned. Victims and defendants are waiting almost two years on average between alleged offences and sentencing or acquittal at the court, which hears the most serious cases including rape and murder, the National Audit Office said. Read the full story.

The Big Read

This year could mark a turning point in the EU’s history. Its population of 448mn is beginning a decline that is expected to persist, marking an unprecedented shrinkage in peacetime, according to UN projections. Last year, EU births fell to levels Eurostat had not forecast for another two decades. This suggests that a peak in the region’s population could come before the previously predicted 2026, straining government finances and the bloc’s long-term prospects. Is Europe reaching its demographic tipping point?

We’re also reading . . . 

• The Mandela effect: Did the South African leader die in prison? We should hardly be surprised that we can remember clearly, in detail and with great confidence, things that simply did not happen, writes Tim Harford.

• Tunisian politics: The north African country’s autocratic leader Kais Saied has launched a new crackdown on dissent, targeting lawyers, journalists and activists ahead of elections.

• Wage insurance: New evidence from the US suggests a scheme in which the government insures older jobseekers against pay cuts could pay for itself, writes Soumaya Keynes.

• Cannes and #MeToo: Iris Knobloch, the first woman leading the world’s biggest film festival, must steer it through mounting sexual misconduct scandals rocking the French film world.

Chart of the day

UK consumer confidence rose to its highest level in more than two years this month, according to data by the research company GfK, providing welcome news to the Conservative party as it counts down to the summer election. But the data also reflected that the cost of living crisis and elevated borrowing costs were still weighing on consumer sentiment, with the index still deeply negative and below its 2014-19 average.

Take a break from the news

We all like to cook easy, comforting dishes that would hopefully work well at dinner parties. Top chefs are no different. From Nigella Lawson to Asma Khan, FT Magazine speaks to 18 of the best cooks about the old recipes they return to frequently.

Additional contributions from Nora Redmond and Benjamin Wilhelm