Oil-and-gas companies are banking on a glacial pace of progress on cutting fossil-fuel use in this year’s round of climate negotiations—and they may well get it.

The U.N. Climate Change Conference, COP28, begins Thursday with an oily twist. It is being hosted by the United Arab Emirates, which pumps more than 3 million barrels of oil a day. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, of which the U.A.E. is a member, will have a pavilion at the climate summit for the first time.

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