U.S. stocks appear on course for “another year of flip-flopping market narratives” as falling inflation may “roller-coaster back up” and rattle investor expectations for a “soft landing,” according to BlackRock.
“Market jitters in early January suggest there is some anxiety about macro risks further out,” said BlackRock Investment Institute strategists in a note Tuesday. “We stay selective as we expect resurgent inflation to come into view.”
The strategists also pointed to “pricey valuations” in the U.S. stock market.
Markets have favored a small group of seven megacap stocks “for their ability to leverage artificial intelligence,” they said. Those stocks’ price-to-earnings ratios for the next 12 months are “about a third higher than for the S&P 500 and when excluding them,” a chart in their note shows.
BLACKROCK INVESTMENT INSTITUTE NOTE DATED JAN. 16, 2024
Price-to-earnings ratios, which “divide a company’s share price by its earnings per share,” fell in the second half of 2023 as stronger earnings expectations supported the megacap rally, the BlackRock strategists said. The so-called Magnificent Seven, as those market-leading megacap tech stocks are known, skyrocketed last year, fueling the S&P 500 index’s 24% surge.
“Even after the market-wide rally in December, market concentration in a handful of megacaps — firms with ultra-large market capitalizations — remains high,” the strategists said.
The seven companies with massive market values — Apple Inc.
AAPL,
Microsoft Corp.
MSFT,
Google parent Alphabet Inc.
GOOGL,
GOOG,
Amazon.com Inc.
AMZN,
Nvidia Corp.
NVDA,
Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc.
META,
and Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
— have an outsized weighting in the S&P 500.
Chip maker Nvidia was among the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 in afternoon trading on Tuesday, with a sharp gain of 2.7% at last check, according to FactSet data. By contrast, the broad S&P 500 index
SPX
was down 0.7% on Tuesday afternoon, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA
and technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite
COMP
were also declining.
Read: What’s next for stocks as ‘tired’ market stalls in 2024 ahead of closely watched retail sales
Potential catalysts
“We find valuations tend to matter more for long-term rather than near-term stock returns, and that’s why they usually aren’t enough to spoil market sentiment without a catalyst,” the BlackRock strategists wrote.
“Earnings could be a catalyst,” as well as inflation, they said.
Consensus expectations for earnings growth rose last year, with forecasts now calling for an increase of as much as 11% in the next 12 months, their note says, citing LSEG data.
BlackRock expects that U.S. inflation will this year subside to near the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. For now, that may support the soft-landing scenario the stock market and Fed have “largely embraced,” in which the U.S. may avoid a recession as inflation falls to that desired target, according to the strategists.
Many investors expect the Fed may start cutting interest rates this year as inflation eases, after the central bank hiked rates aggressively in a bid to tame it.
“The problem: Inflation won’t remain at that target, in our view, and this risk becoming clearer could challenge upbeat sentiment,” the BlackRock strategists said. “So we monitor earnings season for any signs of cracks given pricey valuations.”
