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The Bank of England has kept interest rates on hold at 5.25 per cent for the second successive meeting but warned monetary policy will need to stay tight for “an extended period of time” despite a bleak economic outlook.
The central bank warned that growth would remain “well below historical averages” over the medium term, even as its forecasts signalled that inflation is set to remain more persistent than it previously expected.
BoE governor Andrew Bailey said the MPC would be watching “closely” to see if further rate rises were needed, adding: “It’s much too early to be thinking about rate cuts.”
The Monetary Policy Committee voted six to three to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent, in line with expectations. A minority of members sought a further quarter-point increase.
The BoE forecast suggests the UK government will hit its goal of halving inflation by the end of the year but will only drop below its 2 per cent target at the end of 2025.
In an article for the Evening Standard, Bailey said the BoE expected inflation “to fall significantly further, probably to below 5 per cent, when the data for October are published in a couple of weeks”. That compares with 10.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022. But the BoE governor also warned: “There is absolutely no room for complacency on inflation.”
The MPC’s vote came after similar decisions to keep rates on hold by the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the European Central Bank last week. Those stances have bolstered investors’ confidence that the global rate rise cycle may have reached its peak.
London’s benchmark FTSE 100 and the mid-cap FTSE 250 rose 1.1 per cent and 3.1 per cent respectively in anticipation of the BoE’s decision, with interest rate-sensitive real estate groups among the biggest winners. The markets held on to their gains immediately after the announcement.
The central bank’s forecasts show it is treading a delicate line as it seeks to beat inflation while not pushing a weakening UK economy into an outright recession in 2024 — expected to be an election year.
UK interest rates are at their highest since the financial crisis, with the bank weighing evidence of weak growth against consumer price inflation of 6.7 per cent.
The BoE expects growth will be flat in the third quarter of this year, weaker than previously expected, with only a 0.1 per cent expansion in the final three months.
It anticipates that output will remain stagnant throughout 2024, with a significant risk of outright contraction.
The downbeat picture reflects the pressure imposed by the central bank’s 14 rate rises since December 2021, with staff estimating than only about half of the impact on gross domestic product has been felt to date.
Bailey said higher interest rates were “working” and that inflation was falling.
“If we maintain this stance for long enough, we will squeeze inflation out of the system,” he said, adding that the weaker growth outlook would not deter the MPC from pressing on to achieve its target.
He said that the committee would rely on future data to balance the risks “between doing too little and doing too much”.
The BoE added that the unwinding of previous fiscal support could also weigh down the UK’s prospects, as could supply constraints.
The gloomy economic prospects contrast with a more upbeat assessment in the US, where Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell this week highlighted the resilience of the country’s economy.
The BoE repeated previous guidance that monetary policy will need to be “sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long” for inflation to return sustainably to its 2 per cent target in the medium term.
It now expects inflation of 3.1 per cent in the final quarter of 2024, higher than previously predicted, before hitting 1.9 per cent in the final quarter of the following year.
Some measures of pay growth are still higher than the bank had expected, as is services inflation, a key indicator of underlying price pressures.
The IMF has forecast that UK inflation will hover above the rates in other G7 countries both this year and next, underlining the central bank’s struggle to get to grips with inflation.
The BoE warned that risks to the inflation outlook remained “skewed to the upside”. Among the threats are an escalation to the conflict in the Middle East, which could further push up energy prices.
Sterling edger higher after the BoE’s announcement, rising 0.4 per cent on the day against the dollar to $1.22.
Two-year gilt yields, which move in line with interest rate expectations, fell 0.06 percentage points on the day as global markets pared back expectations of future rate rises.
As investors bet that real estate companies would benefit from an end to rate increases, shares in the FTSE 250-listed lender OSB Group rose 13.3 per cent, while FTSE 100 developer Segro jumped 6.1 per cent. Land Securities added 5.7 per cent and Barratt Developments gained 3.5 per cent.
Swaps markets continue to price in the first BoE cut for August or September next year.
Additional reporting by George Steer and Mary McDougall
