After another year of US aeronautics company SpaceX dominating launch headlines, 2024 promises to bring an uptick in public and private activity from countries such as China, India and Japan.
Chinese launch start-up LandSpace Technology plans to launch reusable rockets in 2025 in an approach that closely mirrors SpaceX, while India aims to begin a series of flight tests for an eventual crewed space flight in 2025.
Meanwhile, Japan aims to become the fifth nation to land a spacecraft on the lunar surface this month, following in India’s footsteps on August 23 2023, when Chandrayaan-3 touched down on the Moon. India says it has brought the spacecraft that took Chandrayaan-3 to the Moon back to Earth’s orbit in preparation for a possible mission to return lunar samples.
Japan has a long history of space development. In 1970, it became the fourth country to put a satellite into orbit after the Soviet Union, the US and France.
Today, however, China and India loom large. Last year, Beijing unveiled a vision of putting Chinese astronauts on the Moon by 2030, while New Delhi hopes to build a space station by 2035 and sending the first Indian to the Moon by 2040.
“I personally believe India will emerge as a bigger competitor to Japan than China,” said Shogo Yakame, business consultant at Nomura Research Institute, citing the south Asian country’s vibrant commercial space sector.
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To showcase its own technological prowess, Japan will attempt the world’s first “pinpoint” landing on the lunar surface on January 20. It aims to have its Smart Lander for Investigating the Moon (SLIM) touch down within 100 metres of a target site, an area neighbouring the Shioli Crater near the Sea of Nectar, just south of the lunar equator.
For precision landing, SLIM uses a radar altimeter and a vision-based navigation system that monitors crater patterns and compares them with map information in real time. The system is also used to avoid rocks and other obstacles and find a smooth surface. The 2.4-metre lander is designed to fall on to its side once it touches down on a slope to stabilise its position.
The capability of pinpoint landing and the information that SLIM obtains about surface conditions will be used in future lunar missions, including a joint India-Japan exploration for water resources in polar regions in 2025 and the development of a pressurised rover by Toyota Motor and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries for use by astronauts on the Moon. The companies are expected to start working in 2024, with a launch planned for 2029.
The growing competition comes as SpaceX launched nearly 100 rockets in 2023, lifting commercial space activity to new heights. On November 2, chief executive Elon Musk wrote on X that the company’s Starlink satellite phone service has achieved a cash flow break-even. The service is based on a constellation of more than 5,500 satellites and provides broadband connection anywhere on Earth. The service gained broader recognition after it helped Ukrainian forces fight against the Russian invasion.
“No one thought such a service would ever be possible,” said Yakame, citing the huge cost of building, launching, operating and maintaining so many satellites and the difficulty of connecting with fast-moving satellites in low Earth orbit. A similar service was tried by Iridium during the 1990s and failed, Yakame noted.
“Space activity has gone through stages, from development of launch vehicles to use of satellites and to utilisation of the space environment such as in space stations,” Seiji Izumisawa, Mitsubishi Heavy’s chief executive, said. “Commercialisation will be the next stage.”
On February 15, Japan will launch what it hopes to be a competitor to SpaceX’s Falcon 9: the H3 next-generation rocket. The planned attempt follows a failure in its maiden flight on March 7 due to an electronics issue. Mitsubishi Heavy, the contractor for the H3, says the rocket is intended to match the Falcon 9 at least in terms of cost, if not in frequency of use. and the company envisages six launches a year.
SpaceX has become the go-to provider for businesses looking to launch satellites after Russia’s Soyuz rocket became unavailable following the country’s invasion of Ukraine.
In 2023, the US made 103 launches, compared to China’s 61 and Russia’s 18, according to data from Space-Track.org, a satellite information platform operated by the US defence department. “The US and China are already dominant players in space and they are expanding their dominance,” said Atsushi Murakami, president of Satellite Business Network, a consultancy. “Will Japan be able to open a crack?”
Unlike the US, India or China, Japan does not have the financial resources to carry out major space missions on its own. Developing technologies and becoming an indispensable partner is its main strategy.
“We don’t have huge resources. But we are good at packing many things into a tiny space,” said Izumisawa. “Japan should try to make a contribution only it can make, based on its own unique capabilities.”
In the launch business, one of the focuses is reusability, pioneered by SpaceX. The company successfully landed a rocket booster after launch in 2015 and launched a recycled booster in 2017. SpaceX is now developing the massive Starship cruise vessel, which is designed to provide transport for human missions to the Moon and Mars. Once a Starship comes back from space, it can be refuelled and relaunched.
SpaceX remains the only commercial operator of reusable rockets, but China’s LandSpace, which made its first successful satellite launch in December, says it will launch a reusable rocket in 2025.
The LandSpace rocket will use methane as fuel, just like Starship. Methane-based fuel is drawing attention because it could potentially be produced on Mars with local materials such as carbon dioxide and water from ice, making return trips from the red planet more feasible. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency and Mitsubishi Heavy are also developing a methane-fuelled rocket for a possible launch around 2030.
A version of this article was first published by Nikkei Asia on January 3. ©2023 Nikkei Inc. All rights reserved.
