Apple Store at 5th Ave in Manhattan, New York City

ozgurdonmaz

In our previous analysis of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), we revised our revenue projections for the company with a full-year revenue growth forecast of 8.2% in 2024, which represents a recovery compared to its previous year’s revenue growth of -2.8%. We believed the

LLM

Company

Number of Parameters (‘bln’)

GPT-4

OpenAI

~1,800 bln

Switch

Google (GOOG)

1,600 bln

Megatron-Tuning

NVIDIA (NVDA)

530 bln

PaLM2

Google

340 bln

ERNIE 3.0 TITAN

Baidu (BIDU)

260 bln

Ajax

Apple

~200 bln

Comparison

Vision Pro

Meta Quest

PlayStation VR (SONY)

Pico (ByteDance)

Microsoft HoloLens

Chipset

M2 and R1

Snapdragon® XR2 Gen 2

Custom MediaTek Soc

Snapdragon XR2 Gen 2

Snapdragon 850 Compute Platform

Processor

Apple M2

Qualcomm Snapdragon XR2 5G

Qualcomm Snapdragon 850

Lithography

5 nm FinFET N5P

7 nm N7+

10 nm FinFET LPP

Cores

8

8

8

Threads

8

8

8

Base Frequency

2.42 GHz

1.8 GHz

1.8 GHz

Turbo Frequency

3.5 GHz

2.84 GHz

2.95 GHz

Cache Memory

20 MB

4 MB

1 MB

Max Memory Capacity

24 GB

6 GB

8 GB

GPU Integrated Graphics

Apple M2 GPU 10-Core

Qualcomm Adreno 650

Qualcomm Adreno 630

GPU Clock

587 MHz

710 MHz

GPU FP32 Floating Point

1,398 MHz

1,267 GFLOPS

737 GFLOPS

Geekbench Average Single-core

3,578 GFLOPS

1,128

1,365

Geekbench Average Multi-core

4,223

2,776

4,371

XR Market Forecast by Source

Forecast CAGR

IDC

37.20%

Counterpoint Research

65.1%

Mordor Intelligence

34.95%

Frost & Sullivan

40.90%

Precedence Research

33.09%

Average

42.24%

Features Comparison

Vision Pro

Meta Quest

Sony

Pico

Microsoft HoloLens

Spatial Video (Video Recording)

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Spatial Audio

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Virtual Avatars

Yes (Digital Persona)

Yes (Meta Avatars)

N/A

N/A

N/A

Video Streaming/ Video Calling

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Number of Apps

1.5 mln compatible apps (1,000 apps designed for Vision Pro)

1,000

252

400+

200+

Controllers

Hand and eye tracking

Touch Plus Controllers, Hand Tracking

Controllers

Controllers

Controllers

Hardware Specs Comparison

Vision Pro

Meta Quest

PlayStation VR (Sony)

Pico (ByteDance)

Microsoft HoloLens

Display Quality Per Eye (mln pixels)

23.0

4.6

4.1

4.0

1.3

Refresh Rate

90Hz, 96Hz, 100Hz

90Hz, 120Hz (experimental)

90Hz, 120Hz

90Hz

120Hz

Battery Life

2 hours

2 hours

4 hours

2 hours

2-3 hours

Field of View

120° horizontal / 92° vertical

110° horizontal / 96° vertical

Approx. 110 degrees

105 degrees vertical

96.1 degrees

Cameras

12 cameras, 6 mics and 5 sensors

2 RGB cameras with 18 PPD

N/A

16MP RGB camera

8-MP RGB camera

Weight

600-650g

515g

560g

295g

566g

Comparison

Vision Pro

Meta Quest

PlayStation VR (Sony)

Pico (ByteDance)

Microsoft HoloLens

Company Branding (Interbrand)

1

21

36

NA

2

Google Trends

28

8

<1

<1

<1

Comparison

Vision Pro

Meta Quest

PlayStation VR (Sony)

Pico (ByteDance)

Microsoft HoloLens

Average Price ($)

3,699

540

548.6

514.2

3,250

Factor Score

Vision Pro

Meta Quest

Sony

Pico

Microsoft HoloLens

Features

1

2

4

3

5

Hardware Specs

2

1

2

4

5

Branding

1

3

4

5

2

Pricing

5

2

3

1

4

Average

2.25

2

3.25

3.25

4

Factor Score

1.19

1.25

0.94

0.94

0.75

Apple Vision Pro Sales Forecast

Units

IDC

200,000

Technopedia

350,000

TF Securities

500,000

Statista

350,000

CCS Insights

500,000

UBS

400,000

Wedbush

600,000

Average

414,286

Wearables, Home, and Accessories Segment Revenue Estimates ($ mln)

2021E

2022E

2023E

2024F

2025F

2026F

2027F

Apple Watch

15,053

17,600

17,255

18,504

19,845

21,282

22,823

Growth %

16.92%

-1.96%

7.24%

7.24%

7.24%

7.24%

AirPods

19,687

18,992

17,238

19,306

21,623

24,217

27,122

Growth %

-3.53%

-9.24%

12.00%

12.00%

12.00%

12.00%

HomePod

3,104

2,853

3,341

3,912

4,463

4,959

5,360

Growth %

-8.11%

17.10%

17.10%

14.10%

11.10%

8.10%

Vision Pro

1,532

2,301

3,455

5,188

Growth %

50.2%

50.2%

50.2%

Others

530

1,785

2,012

2,305

2,573

2,794

2,951

Growth %

236.5%

12.7%

14.6%

11.6%

8.6%

5.6%

Total

38,375

41,230

39,845

45,560

50,804

56,707

63,445

Growth %

7.4%

-3.4%

14.3%

11.5%

11.6%

11.9%

Apple Revenue Projections ($ bln)

2023

2024F

2025F

2026F

iPhone

200.6

213.38

227.00

241.48

Growth %

-2.4%

6.4%

6.4%

6.4%

Mac

29.4

34.50

36.69

37.06

Growth %

-26.9%

17.5%

6.3%

1.0%

iPad

28.3

27.20

26.14

25.13

Growth %

-3.4%

-3.9%

-3.9%

-3.9%

Wearables, Home and Accessories

39.8

45.56

50.80

56.71

Growth %

-3.4%

14.3%

11.5%

11.6%

Services

85.2

95.57

107.07

119.85

Growth %

9.0%

12.2%

12.0%

11.9%

Total

383.3

416.2

447.7

480.2

Total Growth %

-2.8%

8.6%

7.6%

7.3%

DCF Valuation Upside

12.55%

Stock Buyback Adjustment

4.3%

Total Upside

16.86%

Price Target

$209.95

Current Price

$179.66

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