There was a deep intake of breath from the mountain tops of Davos and in the studios of Radio 4 at Donald Trump’s all-conquering victory in the Iowa caucuses.
How is such a thing possible, the progressive elites ask.
After all, Trump is a misogynist who challenged American democracy with his efforts to de-legitimise the outcome of the 2020 election and his incitement of rioters during the January 6, 2021, assault on Capitol Hill.
No one wants to see such a mercurial and untrustworthy figure back in the White House. The difficulty is that for all the dangers and madness that a second Trump presidency might inspire, he has a narrative which makes sense to many Americans.
The conservative Wall Street Journal calculates that there is a $6trillion difference between what Trump and the Democrats are offering at the polls.
The conservative Wall Street Journal, which has no particular love of Trump, calculates that there is a $6 trillion (£4.7 trillion) difference between what Trump and the Democrats are offering at the polls.
Trump and the Republicans want to extend the 2017 tax cuts for individuals, entrepreneurs and companies, end the sunset clause and make them permanent.
Joe Biden wants to roll them back, with the exception of households earning less than $400,000 (£315,000) a year. That amounts to an enormous difference to the supply side of the economy over a decade.
The former president’s agenda defied predictions of doom. Wages outpaced inflation, unemployment tumbled to a 50-year low, share prices soared and inflation and interest rates were reliably subdued.
Say it quietly, but even International Monetary Fund data demonstrated that US social inequality diminished.
Trump, for better or worse, latched onto another trend which has fomented social unrest: the huge movement of people from Central and South America to the North.
Some economists and politicians welcome this as a never-ending source of cheap labour and supporting the human rights of strivers seeking greater prosperity.
As is the case in the UK and across the European Union, the large scale movement of populations is seen as putting strains on schools and public services.
A desperate group of workers, many without the right paperwork, also offends against the wages, conditions and other benefits which organised labour has spent decades, if not centuries, securing for working people.
Trump speaks to this agenda. Painting him into a legal corner only strengthens his political prospects. Simply mouthing off about the threat to democracy and the danger to the world is not going to cut the mustard.
The Democrats and Trump’s Republican opponents need a concrete prosperity agenda if they want real cut through.
Ice Cream Wars
One might have thought that by now the social warriors on the board of luxury icecream maker Ben & Jerry’s had learnt their lesson in trying to reshape parent Unilever’s Middle-East agenda.
But Ben & Jerry’s can’t help itself, declaring ‘peace’ is a ‘core value’ and it wants to see a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.
There appears to be no recognition of the fact that Hamas continues to hold and abuse hostages and has been responsible for rape and pillage of an Israeli Jewish community on a scale not seen since the
Holocaust. Unilever until now has shown admirable resistance to the Vermont-based activists on the Ben & Jerry’s board. Even Vermont’s radical Senator, Bernie Sanders, steadfastly has refused to condemn Israel’s campaign in Gaza, in spite of historical support for Palestinian cause.
The last time Unilever came under fire in 2021, it smartly transferred its West Bank operations to an Israeli partner and took a rare stand in the courts against a valuable subsidiary. Unilever was an investor in Palestine long before the state of Israel came into existence as a result of a UN vote.
One trusts the newish boss of the Marmite-to-Dove group, Dutchman Hein Schumacher, will be as resistant to Ben & Jerry’s posturing as predecessor Alan Jope.
Goldman reboot?
Is investment bank Goldman Sachs in deep difficulty or on the way back?
A UK headline highlights the group’s net income of £6.7bn as the lowest since 2019. Interpretation across the Atlantic notes a big 51pc uplift in profits in the final quarter of the year to £1.6bn. This ended eight quarters of decline as leader David Solomon switched focus from unstable trading income to asset and wealth management.
Solomon’s decision to put his disco on hold is paying off.
